Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan triggered a strong backlash from mainland China. In the past few days, fierce electronic warfare has been staged over the Taiwan Strait. What are the unknown intelligence insider stories?
The Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army of China began live-fire drills on the evening of the 2nd, including missile shooting drills. Starting on the 4th, the first drill to encircle and seal off the entire island of Taiwan will be conducted. Taiwan also needs to reduce the scale of live-fire exercises to avoid misfires. The United States and Japan have also made latest moves, and even Australia has secretly dispatched military planes. How will the situation in the Taiwan Strait develop next? Will the gun go off?
This article is excerpted from " Military Intelligence Observation Room " on August 3.
△Military Intelligence Observation Room Host Dong Jiayao
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Pelosi’s visit has made waves in the Taiwan Strait. On the 3rd, media outlets in Hong Kong, Taiwan and overseas extensively analyzed Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which caused ripples in the Taiwan Strait, and the corresponding series of military movements of the People’s Liberation Army, with the latest intelligence analysis.
html On the evening of August 2, Pelosi’s special plane arrived at Taiwan Songshan Airport. According to disclosures at the time, the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command had officially announced a series of joint military operations on the afternoon of the 2nd, and it was not an exercise. It was also mentioned that live-fire attack drills will be carried out in the sea and air in the north, southwest, and southeast of Taiwan Island. Especially in the Taiwan Strait , the long-range live ammunition shooting is a closed and controlled live ammunition shooting.
The widest part of the Taiwan Strait is only 180 kilometers. A live ammunition attack that can achieve long-range firepower cannot be just a gun. It is likely to be a (weapon) with long-range attack power. Taiwan intelligence said the PLA fired long-range rocket launchers at the time.
The People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command also specifically mentioned that a live-fire drill involving conventional fire attacks was carried out in the waters east of Taiwan Island. Conventional missiles are used as conventional missiles. Conventional missiles are attacking with live ammunition in the east of Taiwan. According to Taiwan's analysis, there are only two possibilities: The first possibility is that the People's Liberation Army's warships had already arrived in the east of Taiwan Island on the 22nd, and were launched by warships. loaded missiles. Another possibility is that mainland China launches missiles directly in Fujian on the west side of the Taiwan Strait, flying across the entire Taiwan Strait, and even over the main island of Taiwan, and lands in the eastern part of the island. This live ammunition attack makes Taiwan even more nervous.
Almost at the same time that Pelosi arrived in Taiwan for her visit, Xinhua News Agency issued an authorization announcement. The fact that this authorization announcement can be issued immediately sends an important signal that the military has already made plans and is waiting for Pelosi's visit to take place. Moreover, the large-scale exercise released this time by the Eastern Theater Command has six major features, and it can also be said that it has six major new breakthroughs. On August 3, newspapers in Hong Kong and Taiwan carried out large-scale interpretations -
First, it spanned a long time, from the 4th to the 7th, a drill of large-scale live ammunition attacks in six areas. In addition, looking at the map, we can see that it is an all-round blockade and attack drill around the southeast, northwest, sea and airspace of Taiwan Island.
Second, in some airspaces or sea areas, the People’s Liberation Army has not conducted high-profile training there in the past. This time around the airspace in the southeast, northwest and northwest of Taiwan Island, Taiwanese media claimed that the area was 2.5 times larger than the area of the People's Liberation Army's previous exercises.
Third, some of the exercise areas this time are directed at important towns, important political and economic centers and important cities in Taiwan. Among them, the exercise area is only 50 kilometers away from Taipei, and the southern exercise area is only 20 kilometers away from the important military port and Kaohsiung , which are all within the range of direct attacks.
Fourth, the exercise of delineating six major areas in a completely blocked state has created a new pressure on Taiwan. Taiwan is actually an island. On the island, whether it is military raw materials or various fuels such as , natural gas, and , they are stored.Under normal circumstances, the corresponding combat readiness fuel stored in Taiwan is only enough for about 7 to 10 days, and the supply needs to be updated every 3 to 5 days. Now this exercise has been held for four days, cutting off Taiwan's supply cycle for the first time. It is impossible for Taiwan to supply within four days, making the Taiwan military feel a shortage of armaments, especially oil.
Fifth, Japan’s lifeline is also in the chain of Taiwan’s first island chain . In addition to the southern direction, this exercise cuts off the Philippines offshore channel and the Western Pacific. The exercise in the northern direction is directed at Japan’s corresponding channels. Taking the direction, it is also a knock on the mountain and a shock to Japan. In the event of actual combat, blocking the Taiwan Strait will also pinch Japan's maritime lifeline.
Sixth, regarding this exercise, the Taiwan military, including Taiwan’s military analysts, specifically mentioned that it is likely to cause a war of attrition and fatigue in the Taiwan region in the future. Why? In the previous exercise area, Taiwanese fighter jets could follow up after taking off. But now, once the six major regions launch exercises around Taiwan, Taiwan's military aircraft, warships, and officers and soldiers will be exhausted, not only in terms of fuel consumption, but also in manpower. Many accidents may occur without fighting.
In addition, we will pay close attention to what new equipment the People's Liberation Army will use, what new tactics it will use, and whether it will suddenly seize some of Taiwan's outer islands.
Online military commentator
Dong Jiayao: Mainland China has announced that it will conduct a large-scale, fully blocked exercise around Taiwan. What kind of troops will be dispatched this time, what new equipment will be used, and will there be any new fighting methods? ?
Military Observer Luo Haitao (Beijing): We are a country with outer space control capabilities, so our outer space equipment must also participate in this military operation. If something goes wrong somewhere, you (Taiwan military) had better look up to the sky. At first glance, this is a situation.
Another one, this time these bandits in the United States have completely angered the Chinese people. All military services have entered a wartime state. They are not simply giving you 6 areas. So Americans still have to think about what it would be like if outer space also participated in this military operation.
Dong Jiayao: In this Taiwan Strait crisis , Japan’s role seems to be nonexistent. In fact, US military fighter jets also took off from Japanese bases, and Japan’s early warning aircraft also took off. What kind of electronic role did Japan play that day? The role of combat ?
Military Observer Mao Feng (Tokyo): This time it is indeed a near miss for Japan, especially the US military stationed in Japan. According to my understanding, in order to ensure that Pelosi could arrive in Taiwan on the evening of the 2nd, the Kadena base of the US military stationed in Okinawa dispatched 8 fighter planes for escort, and also dispatched 5 KC-135 tanker aircraft as backup. , in case something happens, these fighters can be replenished and refueled.
In addition, the Fifth Air Group in Okinawa, Japan is also ready for emergency takeoff . At the same time, after all the special operations commands of the US military stationed in Okinawa were activated, they also highly enhanced detection through various means such as satellite . Judging from some information reported at the time, there was no major movement by the Chinese fighter planes, so the entire trip should be said to be a near miss.
Dong Jiayao: In addition to the trends of Taiwan's military, intelligence also mentioned that in fact, the United States, Japan, and Europe also have corresponding trends. How will the People's Liberation Army face these common military pressures in future operations in the Taiwan Strait?
Military Observer Luo Haitao (Beijing): First, the combat range of our fighter is 400 kilometers. We will warn it when it is 600 kilometers away. In other words, I have locked you. If the aircraft comes from the southern hemisphere, I don't believe it can fly that far all at once. Second, we can attack it from such a long distance. If it has the ability, it will rush over and give it a try.
Dong Jiayao: Japan has previously said in a high-profile manner that "if something happens in the Taiwan Strait, it means something happens in Japan." Based on the information you have in Tokyo, what kind of military response will Japan have to the PLA's large-scale exercises, including the PLA's future movements?
Military Observer Mao Feng (Tokyo): This exercise of the People's Liberation Army in six major areas, including several areas in the Western Pacific, has indeed made Japan and the Japan-US alliance very nervous. In this sense, what Japan should pay close attention to in the future is whether this exercise will become a combat model for the People's Liberation Army to use force to solve the Taiwan issue if there is an incident in the Taiwan Strait in the future. Therefore, Japan will pay close attention to this People's Liberation Army exercise.
Taiwan said it is paying close attention to the People's Liberation Army's exercises in the next few days. What kind of firepower will be deployed, the scale of the exercises and the extent to which the targets will be upgraded.
According to Taiwanese media reports, in fact, on the afternoon of the 2nd, when Pelloki's special plane "circled in a big circle" and flew to Taipei, a very fierce electronic versus battle was staged around the Taiwan Strait. Special mention was made of the deployment of aircraft carriers by the US military. , fighter planes, and fighter planes taking off from US military bases in Japan, including Japanese electronic jammers, etc., have launched confrontations around the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea .
That night, the People's Liberation Army of China also deployed a large number of jamming radars in the East China Sea in the eastern theater, including electronic countermeasures forces, which launched a war of detection and counter-detection, jamming and counter-jamming. early warning radar , electronic warfare aircraft fully launched the electronic war. Although no direct firefight was seen, in fact the electronic warfare was carried out very fiercely.
The report also mentioned that both sides are testing and exploring what kind of latest electronic spectrum the other party will use. It was also mentioned in particular that the Taiwan military also admitted that the "Coastal Patrol Agency" found that some radar screens along the coast were black for a time. It has not yet been found out who was responsible for the black screen incident, but corresponding black screens did appear, which shows that electronic warfare is effective and has a great impact.
After Pelosi leaves Taiwan, what kind of actions will Taiwan and the United States take next? According to information disclosed by Taiwan media, the next step for Taiwan is to observe the scale of mainland China's exercises, including mainland China's reaction and the actions of the People's Liberation Army, before Taiwan decides whether to continue to follow the United States in "slicing sausages."
One of the intelligence mentioned that there may be two major military actions. The first is the so-called joint training between the United States, Japan and Taiwan, which is a blatant provocation. There is also the possibility that the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, including the commander of the Pacific Fleet, may openly visit Taiwan to further provoke. Of course, it may also be the so-called mutual visit of Taiwan military generals to Guam.
However, the People's Liberation Army has also taken actions. Recent intelligence disclosures indicate that Taiwan has also analyzed that in addition to the exercises in early August, the People's Liberation Army will continue to conduct exercises in the Western Pacific in late August or even September for the PLA's naval and air forces to break through the first island chain. , or even launch a missile, the target area of the missile may fall in the Western Pacific, and even the entire exercise area, including the missile attack target area, is outside the US military base in Guam.
Dong Jiayao: The Taiwan military said that this cross-strait confrontation model, including the People's Liberation Army's drills, may be the model for future operations on Taiwan. How to interpret it?
Military Observer Shi Xiaowei (Taipei): Indeed, we have seen that the PLA’s establishment of six exercise areas around Taiwan this time represents the significance of targeting Taiwan’s two important maritime lifelines in the northeast and southwest directions; through long-range or The shooting mode of medium-range missiles, or ballistic missiles , shows that mainland China already has A to AD, which is the ability to counter area denial, has made it clear to the United States that the advantages it had in the past around the Taiwan Strait no longer exist.
If a real conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may occur in the future, it is not that single. It must be an option a or b. The People's Liberation Army will most likely cut off ties with Taiwan first. We have seen that in this conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine is still able to maintain transportation from the outside in, allowing Ukraine to resist the increase in time. If the People's Liberation Army wants to use force against Taiwan in the future, this issue must be dealt with thoroughly. of.
Dong Jiayao: Now that the situation is heating up, what will be the next move for mainland China? The United States, Japan, and Taiwan may also be observing, and may even continue to "slice sausages." What should the People's Liberation Army do?
Military Observer Luo Haitao (Beijing): In fact, the whole country and the entire military can't stand the US military's aggressive military deterrence, political suppression and humiliation of us. Next, we can publicly tell the Americans that we will hold more military exercises, and joint exercises with multiple countries. We have already announced joint exercises with Russia. Therefore, the Japanese have to think about it. Don't just look at our place. There is a country to the north that is your mortal enemy. The Japanese owe a blood debt to our two countries (China and Russia).
The navy has joint exercises with Russia's Pacific Fleet; the air force has joint exercises with Pakistan, , Russia, and other neighboring countries; the army has gone abroad to hold joint military exercises in Russia. It always thinks that it has a few tricks up its sleeve, and it never thought that the countries being bullied would also unite to deal with it.
Therefore, in addition to its own attacks on the enemy, the People's Liberation Army's exercises also include exercises on international cooperation and combating common enemies. In August and September, the People's Liberation Army will hold a number of domestic exercises and international cooperative military exercises.
Source: Phoenix TV "Military Observation Room"
Editor: Wang Erya
