Nord Stream 1 closed
It is said that starting a few days ago, Russia has closed Nord Stream 1, the largest gas pipeline to Germany.
closure reason: annual maintenance
closure time: 10-day suspension
Although the answer given by Russia is "annual maintenance", a discerning person can probably guess at the current situation that this is not routine maintenance... What does
say?
Because after two days of annual maintenance work, Russia suddenly issued a message saying: "The normal operation of the Nord Stream Pipeline cannot be guaranteed."
Immediately afterwards, Europe began to draft various plans to deal with air shortages, such as reducing heating and cooling needs, and implementing market measures for this plan.
And what about the market? The euro fell below parity against the dollar for the first time in 20 years. Major mainstream investment banks in the United States and Europe have begun to worry that the risk posed by Russia's gas outage in Europe may cause the euro to fall to $0.90.
Not only that, the market does not seem to be satisfied with such expectations. The real "war" has just begun...
It is not easy to die.
In fact, it is obvious that this time Russia's death against Europe is not simple. How can I say this? ?
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the only gas pipeline Russia supplies to Europe is Nord Stream 1#. Suddenly, the gas volume gap is so large. In order to stabilize gas volume and price, Europe can only transport liquefied natural gas from the United States.
We are very unlucky. On the 8th of last month, the U.S. liquefied gas export port suddenly and inexplicably exploded. This port is the main base for U.S. natural gas exports to Europe. When such an incident occurred, the gas volume in Europe was instantly reduced by 2.5%.
But just a week after this happened, Russia suddenly reduced the gas volume of Nord Stream 1# to Europe by 60%. The main reason why Nord Stream 1# only had 40% of the gas transmission volume was that parts were needed for repairs. After that,
was gone forever and Canada would not return the accessories, mainly because of its sanctions against Russia.
Once Canada intercepts it, Germany will always be injured. After all, Beixi 1# air has to go through Germany to get to Europe. Canada will not return the parts that Russia took for repairs. If this happens, let alone Europe, Germany will also start to suffer from a serious lack of energy.
So, the Germans came up with a way:
Discuss with Canada and let Canada give the accessories to Germany first, and then Germany will return them to Russia, so that Russia will have no reason to die for Germany.
Soon, Canada agreed to Germany's demands, but unexpectedly, a few days later, Russia still "died" on Germany.
Since the geopolitical conflict, Russia has successively closed its gas pipelines to Europe. Obviously, the reason why Nord Stream 1# can survive to this day is to save face for Germany.
It can be seen from this that if Russia's "regular maintenance" cannot be completed in 10 days, then Germany will be equivalent to "cutting off" directly. From this point of view, Russia's maintenance this time is actually a "death" to Germany. Ultimatum".
At the same time, once Russia cuts off its air supply to Beixi, Europe will basically have no air available. By then, although Europe will not be in "chaos" like Sri Lanka , its chances of survival will be greatly reduced. This is for sure.
Viability decreased after "gas cutoff"
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe has been "grabbing for gas" all over the world. Until June, EU had already collected 60% of its natural gas reserves, an increase of 10% year-on-year.
According to this collection and storage speed, if Beixi 1# is not shut down, there will be no problem in the EU’s gas reserves being filled to 80% by November.
But now, this dream is about to come to nothing.
Russia has closed the Nord Stream 1# pipeline. At present, the EU only has 60% of the gas volume. The key is that the gas is not evenly distributed.
In other words, some brothers who used to be particularly dependent on Russian natural gas now have far less than the average 60% gas reserves. In this case, once the cold winter comes, these brothers will face a greater lack of energy. At that time, they can only rely on other brothers in Europe who have sufficient reserves to help them.
The key point is that when no one can buy Qi, other brothers will also use this Qi to "sustain their lives", and the brothers with more Qi reserves should also give priority to themselves...
Think about it, until then, we can unite The brothers will also become a mess. What's more, they are not brothers!
Some people may ask after seeing this, since there is no hope of importing gas from Russia, then we should use LNG from the United States. Let’s take a look at the specific situation.
Russian natural gas was changed to liquefied natural gas
Once the Nord Stream 1# gas pipeline is cut off in Russia, insufficient gas storage in the EU and uneven distribution will also be a top priority. So, in this case, the only solution the EU can think of is to transport LNG by sea.
But Europe’s liquefied gas processing capabilities are particularly concentrated. Except for the British and Spanish brothers, whose gasification capacity can reach 50%, the other brothers can only rely on these two to process them first before shipping to other brothers.
For example, Germany cannot transport liquefied natural gas directly due to geographical location and lack of facilities. In order to solve this problem, Germany has recently been developing floating gasification ships at sea. However, it will not be operational until next year at the earliest. ;
It will also take time to return to the coal-burning era. Therefore, judging from the current situation, if Germany cuts out its gas and relies on itself, there will be no hope this winter, so they can only place their hope on the United Kingdom.
But is the UK really willing to help Germany and other old European brothers solve the problem of insufficient air capacity?
not necessarily!
Some time ago, considering that the gas volume may not be enough in winter, the UK has informed other brothers in Europe that if there is a real emergency, the UK will stop the export of natural gas to Europe.
Judging from this point alone, several big brothers in Europe have begun to show distrust and are already fighting on their own.
Today, Germany has planned to invest 3 billion euros to build a floating LNG gasification equipment at sea. Although it sounds very high-end, the gas volume achieved can only meet 8.5% of Adelaide's annual consumption;
other brothers, too We are trying our best to get this kind of equipment from Germany. However, it is said that the major brothers in Europe did not develop this kind of maritime equipment in a unified manner this time. From this point of view, they have only one purpose in doing this: self-protection.
Of course, at the moment, we still need to work hard to save face. At the moment, everyone is helping each other openly. After all, we are not at the point where we have too much time to take care of ourselves.
Like Germany, it has recently suggested that the EU engage in natural gas rationing. This kind of talk on paper, as far as the current situation is concerned, it can only be said that Germany is talking about it out of brotherly love. However, in a critical moment, it is completely foreseeable that in order to protect themselves, they will refuse rationing for various reasons. Even then, the German authorities are willing to continue, but the people are freezing and starving, so they cannot agree.
At that time, Lao Ou will have only one choice left: seek help from Russia
Will Russia give it?
gives it, but there must be conditions!
Right now, the EU has clearly lost. When the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, Russia's purpose was not to resolve the conflict quickly, because once Russia ends the conflict quickly, the EU NATO will inevitably unite with the outside world. By then, Russia will be very passive and even have no way to retreat.
But the situation is different now. Russia and Ukraine are still engaged in a tug of war, while the risks in Europe are getting bigger and bigger.
Therefore, Russia’s strategy of boiling frogs in warm water seems to be boiling Ukraine, but in fact it is the European Union—even NATO.
It seems that this is Russia’s real “war” goal!
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