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Review of the previous issue: "Tiger Brothers" 
This year the Democratic Party has sent a strong stick - the current African-American female Congresswoman of Florida Val Demings. Demings has a good background. He worked as a police officer in Orlando for 27 years until he became the chief of the Orlando Police Department. In 2017, he was elected to Congress as a member of the House of Representatives. He was highly regarded by Pelosi and was appointed as the of January 2020. One of the impeachment managers representing the House of Representatives in the first impeachment trial of Trump . Demings is also one of Biden's top deputy candidates in 2020.
When Orlando Police Chief Demings
Demings was aggressive as soon as he took action. He raised more than 20 million US dollars in 2021 and always had more than 8 million US dollars in cash on hand, which made Rubio very nervous.
Demings 2021 fundraising report card
What can make Rubio relax a little is that Florida has become more and more popular in recent years. Even though Trump lost almost all key swing states in 2020, relying on the support of Florida Latinos, the Republican Party still held on to Florida.
Trump won over Biden by more than 370,000 votes in Florida in 2020.
In addition, Trump also expressed his support for Rubio early, breaking the rumors that Ivanka was going to run, and giving Rubio another breath.
If Ivanka chooses, Rubio will definitely be scared into a cold sweat.
From a certain perspective, Rubio versus Demings is Florida's Cuban versus African . The power of Cubans in Florida is still stronger, and Rubio still has more appeal.
So the final result is likely to be the same as Cruz in 2018. Even if the Democratic Party has strong fundraising capabilities, Rubio can still be re-elected if the Republican base is solid.
10 New York Charles Schumer (D)
As the current leader of the Senate Democratic Party, Schumer had no doubts about his re-election. However, there were rumors every day that AOC was going to challenge his Senate seat, which made Schumer himself a little nervous.
With AOC’s super popularity and record as an anti-establishment leader (portal:
), however, AOC is not yet full-fledged. If he forces himself to challenge Schumer, his chances of winning are not high, and he will lose his position as a member of the House of Representatives. To compensate, AOC is unlikely to elect a senator this year, but it will be hard to say
AOC and Schumer will eventually have a battle, and both sides will all. in A shocking battle that lost all his net worth Alaska Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska female senator Lisa Murkowski, one of the anti-Trump trio , will run for re-election this year, and Trump has already announced her intention to run for re-election in June last year. endorses by former Alaska administrative commissioner Kelly Tshibaka went to challenge Murkowski in the primary. challenger Kelly. Tshibaka (left)
However, the Murkowski family has deep roots in Alaska. Murkowski's father was a senator from 1981 to 2002. When the elder Murkowski became governor in 2002, his daughter took over as senator and has been re-elected to this day. The two girls
and Lisa in 2010 Murkowski lost the Senate primary and did not win the Republican nomination, but in the end he still forced his way into the election as a candidate, and finally won the election
even after losing the primary. ml2
Murkowski has extensive connections in Alaska and has $3.2 million in campaign cash. Even with Trump's blessing, it will be extremely difficult for challengers to overthrow Murkowski in Alaska, so there is a high probability that Murkowski will be re-elected.
12 Illinois Tammy Duckworth (D)
We have always believed that in the United States, which is becoming more and more politically correct, Duckworth is simply an invincible BUG existence: women + minorities (Asian/Thai) + Iraq War Veteran + Army pilot + Disabled person who dedicated his life to the country (during the 2004 Iraq war, he was hit by the enemy while driving a helicopter and lost his legs).
When Duckworth was an Army pilot, any one of them is a huge political capital. With so many in one, he can basically be invincible in the election. It depends on whether Duckworth has any further political plans.
Duckworth, who lost his legs and gave birth to a child, marched into Congress with his head held high
13 Alabama Richard Shelby (R) (retired)
The current Alabama Senator Richard Shelby is 87 years old. He chose to retire this year, attracting several Republicans to compete for this position. A seat that includes Rep. Mo Brooks, Shelby's former chief of staff Katie Boyd Britt and former Air Force pilot Mike Durant.
7-year-old Shelby
Durant is worth mentioning. He is the Black Hawk pilot whose helicopter was shot down and captured by Somali militants in the movie "Black Hawk Down" .
The current Durant and the photos when he was captured
The Durant in the movie "Black Hawk Down" also experienced injuries on the battlefield. Durant is not as popular as the aforementioned Duckworth, but after all, Durant is a white male, and he is also All limbs are sound.
14 Vermont Patrick Leahy (D) (retired)
The most senior senator in the Democratic Party, Patrick Leahy (in office for 48 years), announced in November last year that he would retire this year. His designated successor is Congressman Peter Welch, who is currently Vermont's only federal representative. With the guidance and support of the beloved old man Leahy, it is not difficult for Welch to successfully take over.
The Vermont Big Three, from left, Patrick Leahy, Peter Welch and Sanders
15 Iowa Chuck Grassley (R)
Senator Patrick Leahy, the most senior Democratic Party (the second oldest, the oldest is California Feinstein) He is retiring at the age of 81, and Grassley, the oldest Republican senator, is 88 years old this year, but he still has to be elected for another 6 years!
Previously, everyone was speculating whether Grassley would choose to retire this time. The Iowa Democratic Party has been trying to stir up trouble in recent years, waiting for Grassley to retire and leverage the Republican territory. However, last September Grassley officially announced that he would continue to seek an eighth term as a senator, which played an important role in stabilizing military morale. As long as Grassley continues to be elected, there will be nothing else to do with this Senate seat.
If Grassley works for another 6 years, he will be 94 years old. The old man is in great health.
16 Missouri Roy Blunt (R) (retired)
72-year-old Missouri Republican Senator Roy Blunt decided to retire, but Missouri is a super red state, so there was nothing to worry about. The most likely Republican candidate before was former Governor Eric Greitens.
Roy Blunt
Greitens is retiring. He was originally a red star of the Republican Party. He is a young and promising man with both civil and military talents. He is a former Navy SEAL who has won the Bronze Star and the Purple Heart. He is also a Rhodes Scholar with a PhD in refugee studies. In 2016, at the age of 43, he became the second youngest governor in Missouri history.
Greitens as a soldier
But Greitens was forced to resign as governor in 2018 due to a sex scandal. Greitens admitted to sexually harassing his hairstylist and taking nude photos for blackmail.
Greitens resigned as governor in 2018
On March 21, there were new revelations that Greitens’ ex-wife accused him of domestic violence against her and their son.Even another Missouri senator Josh Hawley couldn't stand it anymore. He said on Twitter : "If you hit a woman or a child, you belong in handcuffs, not the United States Senate."
Josh Hawley publicly attacked Greitens, and Wan How will they get along once they become colleagues in Congress?
So there is a hidden danger here, and the Republican Party needs to be careful about repeating the mistakes of the 2017 Alabama Senate election.
Candidates with scandals like this may cause divisions within the party. In addition, Trump has not yet decided who to support, which is a huge uncertainty. These may allow the Democratic Party to exploit loopholes, like In the 2017 Alabama Senate special election, Democratic Party Doug Jones was unexpectedly elected. (Portal: The 2017 Alabama Senate special election farce allowed the Democratic Party to take advantage
After former Governor Greitens, another more popular candidate for the Senate is now Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmidt Eric Schmitt. Schmitt keenly sensed political opportunities after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, and Josh Hawley's insistence on pursuing accountability and suing China has also earned him a certain degree of national popularity. Currently, Schmitt has raised $2.44 million, second only to Greitens.
17 MarylandChris Van Hollen (D)
Although Maryland is a blue state, But the current governor Larry Hogan is a Republican. The Republican Party has been persuading Hogan to run for the Senate. Some internal polls show that Hogan can win by 12 percentage points against the current Democratic Senator Van Hollen. This is a very attractive opportunity for the Republican Party.
Larry Hogan (left) VS Chris Van Hollen (right)
But on February 8, Hogan officially announced that he would not run for the Senate. In this case, the Republican Party's dream of doing something in Maryland will be shattered.
18 California Alex Padilla. (D)
This seat was originally held by Vice President Harris. Later, California Governor Newsom appointed Secretary of State Padilla to take over as the senator, becoming the first Latino senator in California history.
By virtue of his minority status, the 48-year-old Padilla. After entering Congress, he quickly became a speaker on immigration issues and served as chairman of the Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Immigration, Citizenship, and Border Security. He has a bright future and is the backbone of the Democratic Party in the Mesozoic . There is no problem with being re-elected this year.
So far we have roughly introduced the 18 senatorial elections this year. Since there is basically no suspense about the remaining 16 seats, we will not list them here.
However, during the election year, the situation of the election is changing rapidly. If you are stable now, you may not have the last laugh; if you are entangled now, you may not have a bright future in the end.
There is still time for everything, and everything is full of variables. In the midterm election year, we don’t have to worry about not being able to win, so let’s prepare a small bench.
The End
Follow me, @华夫罗贝贝, a US Congress & Elections expert, taking you to see Washington politics from the front line.
Review of the Washington Observer series of articles:
Congressional redistricting: a bloodless battle for the midterm elections
Who will become the next speaker after the 2022 midterm elections?
Why does Manchin, the king of the Senate, have a "red heart"? What is his connection with China?
Justice Breyer’s sudden retirement will trigger a new round of war between the two parties.
The Republican Party sweeps Virginia. Is the Democratic Party in danger in 2022?
