Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Wei Yalin
html On May 14, the manufacturer behind the Chengdu battery car elevator explosion incident surfaced. It is reported that the battery car involved has the trademark "Lingwei" and is produced by Zhejiang Yongkang Lingfan Industry and Trade Co., Ltd.On the evening of May 10, a battery car caught fire in an elevator in Congshujiayuan Community, Chengdu City. Previously, a surveillance video circulated on the Internet showed that there were three men and a woman holding a baby at the scene, and the flames engulfed the entire elevator room within 3 seconds. After the
incident, many netizens questioned: "Is there a quality problem with the battery car?" and "Why did the battery spontaneously ignite?" According to the person in charge of the battery car company involved, the brand's electric cars were assembled with self-purchased parts and ultimately only sold. It went out of business after more than 100 vehicles.
In this regard, Associate Professor Zhang Wuxing of the School of Materials Science and Engineering of Huazhong University of Science and Technology told Times Finance on May 14, "As long as you buy batteries from well-known brands and there are no problems with the manufacturing process, the batteries are basically safe."
In the capital market , from the second day of the accident on the hot search to the close of trading on May 14, among the two-wheeled electric vehicle battery companies, Chaowei Power (0951. HK) stock price fell 5.8%, Tianneng Shares (688819.SZ) rose slightly by 1.83%; among electric two-wheeled vehicle companies, Yadi Holdings (01595.HK) rose slightly by 0.5%, Hong Kong stocks Xinri Shares (603787.SH) and Chinese concept stock Niu Electric (NIU) fell slightly by 0.27% and 0.48% respectively.
The shareholders of battery car concept stock seem to have become accustomed to battery car accidents that make headlines from time to time. An industry insider told Times Finance that battery vehicle accidents have occurred from time to time in recent years. This time the news will not have an impact on the revenue and stock price of battery vehicle companies.
According to Times Finance's observation, with the official implementation of the "new national standard" for battery vehicles, the two-wheeled electric vehicle lithium battery industry in the capital market has been heating up in recent years. Planning to be listed on Science and Technology Innovation Board , Boliwei, which specializes in lithium batteries for electric light vehicles, has been registered and effective on April 28 this year, while CATL (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SH) and other power battery leaders It also frequently increases its investment in lithium batteries for two-wheel electric vehicles.
After the popularity of new energy vehicles, will the next explosion be "electric bicycles"? Can the capital increase provide Volkswagen with a battery car battery that takes into account both safety and performance?
Image source: unsplash
The stock price is sluggish, and the company is worried about the market value
How does the capital market view the batteries of electric vehicles?
Before discussing this issue, we must first distinguish between lithium batteries and lead-acid batteries, which are the two most commonly used types of batteries in battery vehicles. Lithium batteries have a much higher energy density than lead-acid. Simply put, with the same battery volume, lithium batteries can make the car run longer and have a longer service life.
In terms of performance, lithium batteries are undoubtedly better than lead-acid batteries, but the opposite is true in terms of safety. Zhang Wuxing, associate professor at the School of Materials Science and Engineering at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, told Times Finance that compared with lithium batteries, lead-acid batteries are less likely to catch fire. "The chemical properties of lead-acid batteries determine that they have low energy density and are more stable."
Tianneng Co., Ltd. and Chaowei Power are the two giants in China's lead-acid battery industry, accounting for nearly 80% of the country's market share. Tianneng Co., Ltd. holds about 10% of Chaowei Power.
On May 14, a staff member from the Secretary-General’s Office of Tianneng Co., Ltd. told Times Finance, “The material structure of lithium batteries determines their high energy density and higher risk factor.”
Staff from the Securities Department of Chaowei Power also believed that “relatively In terms of lead-acid Batteries are safer than lithium batteries. "
A staff member from BYD Securities told Times Finance that among lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries are safer than ternary lithium batteries because the latter has a higher energy density and is chemically More lively in nature.
Many industry insiders told Times Finance that from the surveillance video, it is still unclear what kind of battery the battery car involved was used, and whether there were other causes of the accident other than the battery.
However, in the next few years, it will be an inevitable trend for battery vehicles to completely replace lead-acid batteries with lithium batteries.According to the " Electric Bicycle Safety Technical Specification " (referred to as the "New National Standard" in the article), which was officially implemented in April 2019, the maximum motor power and maximum speed limit of electric bicycles have been greatly improved, but the maximum vehicle weight standard is only An increase of 15kg.
These means that in order to meet the new national standards, lithium batteries with higher energy density and lighter weight need to be used, and the "silly and thick" lead-acid batteries will be phased out step by step.
Image source: Tianfeng Securities Research Report
This is also reflected in the stock price of Tianneng Shares, a leading lead-acid battery company. The company was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on January 18 this year, with an issue price of 41.79 yuan and an opening price of 80 yuan on the first day. However, it started at its peak, and its market value evaporated by 31.76% in the first three days of listing. The stock price has now broken, closing at 40.12 yuan on May 14.
Tianneng shares stock price chart. Screenshot source: Flush
During the same period, Chaowei Power's stock price also experienced a similar "roller coaster", falling from the highest of HK$3.99 in January this year to closing at HK$2.6 on May 14, a drop of 32.29%.
Chaowei Power stock price chart. Screenshot source: Flush
The above-mentioned staff of Tianneng shares also complained to Times Finance that the company’s fundamental data are very good, but the stock price is very sluggish, and the company is also worried about the market value, “Maybe because the entire battery car battery area is not popular. , and there are no brokerage research reports. "
For Tianneng Co., Ltd., the introduction of the "new national standard" is also an opportunity for transformation. According to its annual report, Tianneng's lithium battery revenue increased from 531 million yuan in 2019 to 1.021 billion yuan in 2020. "The transformation of battery vehicles into lithium batteries is definitely a general trend, but we will not give up lead-acid batteries easily." said the above-mentioned staff member.
However, judging from the lithium battery market for electric two-wheeled vehicles in 2021, this track has been severely "involved".
Not only are lead-acid battery leaders like Tianneng Co., Ltd. pursuing the transformation of lithium batteries, but also old players such as Boliwe and Phylion that focus on electric two-wheeled vehicle batteries are seeking IPOs to expand their "ammunition", and there are many motivations. The battery "big crocodile" plans to turn around and unify the lithium battery "land".
The "involved" tens of billions of battery car lithium battery market
On April 28, 2021, Boliwei's registration on the Science and Technology Innovation Board took effect. At the same time, Phylion Power Supply, which ranks first in the industry in terms of shipments, is also "forging ahead" - in August 2020, Phylion Power Supply disclosed on its official website that it had received listing guidance from Haitong Securities; in March 2021, according to Haitong Securities According to official website information, Phylion Power has completed the third phase of listing guidance.
According to Boliwei’s IPO prospectus, the top three companies occupying the lithium battery shipments for China’s two-wheel electric vehicles in 2019 are Phylion Power, Tianneng Co., Ltd., and Boliwei.
Screenshot source: Boliwei IPO prospectus
In addition to these two two-wheeled electric vehicle lithium battery companies that will be listed one after another, the two-wheeled electric vehicle company Emma Technology also finally launched in November 2020 after two failed IPOs. A successful month.
Will the third decade of the 21st century usher in the explosion of "electric bicycles"?
An unnamed analyst told Times Finance on May 14 that two-wheeled electric vehicle batteries are only a small market: “If you think about it, each battery vehicle only holds two or three kilowatt hours of electricity, while each new energy vehicle holds two or three kilowatt hours of electricity. Five or sixty kilowatt hours of electricity, the gap is too big. "
How small is this market? In 2019, Tianneng Co., Ltd. accounted for 9.6% of China's electric two-wheeled vehicle lithium battery market that year with 1.24% of its annual revenue - 531 million yuan in lithium battery revenue.
According to the research report of Tianfeng Securities, taking into account policy promotion, China's lithium battery market for electric two-wheelers will reach 10.8 billion yuan in 2021 and 18.5 billion yuan by 2024.
Compared with the narrow market space, the more severe challenge for the two-wheeled electric vehicle battery industry may be the "involution" of battery companies.
The above-mentioned analysts believe that leading power battery companies have overwhelming advantages in entering the field of two-wheeled electric vehicle batteries. They have overwhelming advantages in capital, technology, and cost. "In the past, we focused on the big ones and let go of the small ones, but now the new energy vehicle battery landscape has stabilized. In addition to the industry leaders, the third to tenth players will worry about what to do in the future and will definitely look for other market spaces."The analyst said.
html On April 28, CATL announced that it plans to establish two joint ventures with ATL to engage in the research and development, production, sales and after-sales of medium-sized batteries used in household energy storage, electric two-wheeled vehicles and other fields. Services. CATL’s involvement in electric two-wheeled vehicle batteries can be traced back to at least June 2019 when it established a joint venture with Ant Financial and Hello Travel . The company develops power batteries for two-wheeled electric vehicles and builds a lithium iron phosphate cylindrical battery production line.Picture source: Ningde Times announcement
html On May 14, BYD Securities Department staff also told Times Finance that the company is planning to develop two-wheeled electric vehicle batteries. It has been many years and the technology reserves are sufficient. "In addition to cooperating with Didi Qingju, BYD has already been in contact with many electric bicycle companies. "On the same day, Times Finance called Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SH) as an investor. A staff member from the other party's securities department said, "There are no obstacles for the company to enter the two-wheeled electric vehicle battery field. "In August 2020, Guoxuan Hi-Tech signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Didi Chuxing, and it is expected to supply more than 600,000 sets of batteries throughout the year.
According to other public information, Lishen , BAK, and Baolixin (300116.SZ ) and other lithium battery companies , has also launched its own small power battery products. With so many entrants on the 10 billion track, it seems that it is undoubtedly too crowded at the moment. We need to wait and see how the market views the prospects of the electric two-wheeled vehicle battery industry. The market performance of
after its official launch.
