Due to the slowdown in the growth of the mobile communications industry, the annual growth rate of global chip sales will drop from 10.5% in 2014 to 0.9% in 2015. Tuoyu Industry Research Institute, a subsidiary of TrendForce, estimates that in 2016 due to the sharp decline in memory output, the annual growth rate of global semiconductor output will be 0.6% lower than this year, with a total output value of approximately US$329.5 billion.
Memory decline, semiconductor output value next year is estimated to decrease by 0.6%
Topology research manager Lin Jianhong said that the trends in the three major application categories of the semiconductor industry in 2016 include a slowdown in the decline of personal computer (PC) shipments, and the average sales price of mobile devices will stabilize; automobiles With the support of high-pixel lens sets, the analog IC chip and OSD categories will continue to grow; the memory IC chip oligopoly competition will lead to a decline in output in 2016 due to oversupply.
Top said that the demand for personal computers was sluggish in 2015, and the proportion of products equipped with CPU/GPU SoC increased, causing the overall output value to shrink. In 2016, central processing units (CPUs) are undergoing inventory adjustments this year. Sales volume is expected to stabilize compared with this year, and average sales prices will fluctuate less. The growth of
mobile devices has slowed down this year, and low innovation has led to a reduction in output value. However, because the proportion of products equipped with 16/14 nanometers is expected to increase, the price reduction of mid-to-high-end product application processors in 2016 will be less severe than in 2015, and exchange rate fluctuations are expected to be small. , will relieve the price pressure on low-end application processors. Tuoji predicts that the annual growth rate of digital IC chip output will fall by 1.4% in 2015 and slightly decline by 0.7% in 2016.
Global vehicle shipments are expected to grow at an annual rate of 5% in 2016, and the average amount of analog ICs per vehicle is increasing. Therefore, the share of automotive electronics in the analog IC chip market will increase from 28% in 2015 to 2016. 30% in 2016, driving the annual growth rate of analog IC output value to 3.5% in 2016.
The optoelectronic components, sensors and discrete devices (OSD) market will benefit from both high-pixel lens modules and the automotive market. Tuoyan estimates that the overall optoelectronic components, sensors and discrete devices market in 2016 is expected to have an annual growth rate of output value of 4.4%.
In 2015, the end market demand was weak, causing the total output value of the memory category to grow only 1.8%. The output value of DRAM and NAND Flash will decline next year. Tuoyu predicts that the total output value of memory will decline by 7% in 2016. It is the category with the most serious decline in semiconductors and will become the main reason for the overall semiconductor output value to fall by 0.6% in 2016.
