Written by Zhou Zhihuai
After winning re-election, Tsai Ing-wen delivered a victory speech, falsely claiming that she would restart cross-strait interactions with "peace, parity, democracy, and dialogue" and renegotiate the requirement that the mainland "give up the threat of force against Taiwan" and "Taiwan's future is important" Decided by 23 million people” cliche.
's challenge to the mainland is really a "vote" that makes people stupid.
1 If Tsai Ing-wen is re-elected, she will continue to harm Taiwan.
Taiwan under the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party has been scarred. Giving Tsai Ing-wen another four years will not only profoundly affect the future stability of the Taiwan Strait region, affect Taiwan's relations with the outside world, but also seriously damage the well-being of the Taiwanese people.
Tsai Ing-wen strongly played the "sovereignty card" in the election and wantonly provoked public opposition between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The voters on the island did not realize the profound impact of the election results on their own lives, especially on future development prospects, and did not realize that the harm was much greater than they had foreseen.
Taiwan, which has fiercely fought political parties and took turns taking power, has isolated itself from the mainland and the world. After its economic take-off, Taiwan has experienced a process from prosperity to gradual marginalization, and the gap in comprehensive strength with the mainland has continued to widen.
's current re-election has further increased Tsai Ing-wen's energy to shape the political discourse of "Taiwan independence" and hinder or even cut off cross-strait people-to-people exchanges. From the revision of the so-called "Five National Security Laws" to the introduction of the "Anti-infiltration Law", from Wang Liqiang's "communist espionage case" to the National Taiwan University professor being investigated by the police investigation department, to the "theory that advocating unification is treason", green terror has spread on the island .
Although the Democratic Progressive Party has exhausted all its agencies, "anti-China and anti-China" can only play with fire and self-immolation, and will eventually be backfired by the hatred it sows.
"Reunification" is accelerating. Is Taiwanese society ready?
The DPP's continued power will undoubtedly accelerate the process of cross-strait reunification. Tsai Ing-wen claimed to "reject any transitional arrangement for reunification," but refusing "to be reunified" is definitely beyond the capability and strength of the "Taiwan independence" regime.
How realistic is it for Taiwan to achieve "de jure independence"? It is not just the ruling Democratic Progressive Party who have asked themselves the answer. The public on the island also knows this very well: Taiwan cannot break away from China at all.
This is the eternal pain of the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, the sorrow of the DPP authorities, and it is a very real reality.
Therefore, Taiwan’s current choices and what the DPP authorities can do in the future have little to do with their one-way thinking or wishful thinking about Taiwan’s future. On the contrary, the continued rule of the Democratic Progressive Party is leading to a fission in the way of cross-strait reunification, from the past unification by consensus and consultation to Taiwan's "unification."
Li Anyou, an American expert familiar with China affairs, said that ideally, Taiwan's future should be decided by Taiwanese, but in reality this is not possible. Although Taiwanese society is not aware of this at the moment, nor is it properly prepared, the greater the psychological expectations of the Taiwanese people and the earlier they adapt, the greater the freedom they will gain.
2 It is worth watching whether there will be a new political transformation in Taiwan.
Will Taiwan’s dualist politics encounter challenges? For a long time, there have been constant voices advocating for multi-party politics and the rise of the third force on the island, but the current political structure of "two major parties and a small one" remains the same.
Although the newly established Taiwan People's Party won 11.22% of the votes in the non-regional district and obtained 5 seats in the "Legislative Yuan" to become the third largest party, it is still doubtful how far the People's Party can go due to the pressure of the two major parties, the Kuomintang and the Democratic Party. . If two or more political forces co-govern Taiwan, the political situation on the island will become even more chaotic.
In addition, how the Kuomintang will transform after the election is even more interesting. Han Guoyu said before the election that if elected, "I will guarantee that the Kuomintang will be thoroughly reformed, so that the Kuomintang will be closer to public opinion, suffer the sufferings of the people, and keep pace with the times."
The launch of the Kuomintang's reform is bound to be closely related to the reorganization of high-level power within the party, the cross-strait line, and the change of generations. Who will lead this reform, whose "cheese" will be touched during the reform process, how a century-old store will be reborn from the ashes, and the resulting series of changes in the island's political landscape will cause competition among various stakeholders. .
Cross-Strait relations will remain tense, confrontational and confrontational. After Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected, she faced multiple choices in cross-Strait relations:
First, accept the "1992 Consensus", stop cross-Strait confrontation, and gradually abandon "Taiwan independence" separatist activities with practical actions, in order to resume cross-Strait contact, dialogue and consultation. This will reduce risks in the Taiwan Strait and avoid direct collision between the two sides. It is also the only bright road.
Second, cross-strait policies are more rigid and tougher. Will Tsai Ing-wen embark on the path of "radical Taiwan independence" and no longer use shy positioning such as "Taiwan, the Republic of China"? How far are she and the DPP prepared to go on the road to division? These are important variables related to the future situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Third, under the guise of the so-called status quo policy, they are delaying change and continuing to promote "gradual Taiwan independence."
In summary, if the Tsai administration’s current cross-strait policies cannot be changed, cross-strait relations will continue to be tense, and the possibility of further deterioration cannot be ruled out.
3 The institutional game will be the focus of the competition between the two sides in the future.
After proposing to explore the "two systems" Taiwan plan, the mainland has taken the lead in the layout of the cross-strait system game. The process of cross-strait institutional competition that has been highlighted since last year fully demonstrates that the mainland's influence on Taiwan has quietly crossed the economic axis and entered a new stage in which political influence is gradually becoming apparent.
Judging from the past practices of cross-strait implementation of the comprehensive "three direct links", opening of political dialogue and negotiations, and meetings between cross-strait leaders, the mainland has always been the first to put forward new political demands for cross-strait relations, but has been subject to various resistance and opposition from Taiwan, but in the end the mainland has always succeeded. Lead cross-Strait relations to overcome difficulties and always become the leading force.
In fact, many island elites have also realized that cross-strait relations have entered a new stage of competition in development models, systems and values.
Although the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have different systems, ideologies and values, their performance in various aspects such as real-life political performance, implementation of the rule of law, and economic modernization will definitely have a structural impact on national identity and political integration.
In any case, the mainland's process of promoting the peaceful reunification of the motherland will not stop. If the DPP continues to cling to "Taiwan independence", it will eventually be swallowed up by the tide of history.
The author is a professor at the School of Politics and International Relations at Central China Normal University and director of the Academic Committee of the Center for Taiwan and East Asia Studies
The pictures in this article are all from the Internet
Editor: Guo Yanfeng
