The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has intensified the economic risks of some countries. Especially for some countries with a single economic structure and heavy reliance on external imports, they may be more impacted. Looking at the total debt of some countries, it is even said that it has reached the highest level in recent decades. The risk is very high and may even trigger a debt crisis. It seems that the world has experienced two new crown epidemics, which have had a certain impact on the economy of some countries. Now, with the conflict between Ukraine and Russia added, some countries are really unable to withstand it.
For example, Japan has followed suit and the United States has launched a series of sanctions against Russia. Now Russia has also begun to impose counter-sanctions, which has also made Japan very uncomfortable. Look at the current international exchange rate of the yen, which has plummeted. There are still 14 power companies. Because of the skyrocketing oil and gas energy prices, the cost is too high and they cannot sustain it. They have declared bankruptcy one after another, setting a record in 8 years. So what about Japan? It is just a small island country. How can it become the third largest economy in the world? They all rely on importing various raw materials and commodities from the outside, then relying on the country's technological capabilities to process and upgrade them, and then sell them to various countries to make money. So it relies heavily on external imports.
Looking at Japan’s food, oil, coal, natural gas , none of it is self-sufficient, and most of it is imported from Russia. This time, it’s good, the other side has imposed sanctions on Russia, so isn’t this Are we facing counter-sanctions? Let’s see what Russia said this time, saying that it would consider taking back the energy mining projects signed with Japan in the future. Originally, this project was agreed upon at the time. Russia would provide energy, and Japan would use mining equipment to mine it. After the mining was completed, it would be sold to Japan. So what would it mean if this project was taken back by Russia in the future? There will definitely be a gap in Japan's energy supply. So Japan has no technology and no raw materials. What will it produce? Its series of industrial and supply chains will face collapse. As a result, Russia has not officially started to take action with you. Japan can no longer bear it anymore, so it settled with rubles and .
As far as natural gas is concerned, Japan’s domestic energy prices have skyrocketed. In March this year, Japan’s energy prices have increased by 26.1%, which is the latest record in 41 years. Including Japan, 14 power companies were unable to withstand the pressure of price increases and all went bankrupt. This trend is really a big reversal for the ruble. If you think about it, the ruble depreciated sharply under successive sanctions imposed by Western countries, but then Russia also took advantage of the situation and tied gold to the ruble, and then linked the ruble to energy. This time it bottomed out. Well, while the ruble soared, the yen began to plummet on the other side, which is really ironic.
So to what extent has the Japanese yen depreciated now? 100 yen can be exchanged for about 5 yuan, which is likely to break 5 soon. But before the epidemic, you must know that 100 yen can be exchanged for 6 yuan 3 or 6 yuan 4 yuan. The Japanese yen not only depreciated against the renminbi, but also depreciated against other mainstream currencies. Some time ago, the US dollar against the yen has reached the 125 mark, so now this situation is still very special, because the Federal Reserve is about to enter a cycle of interest rate hikes . At this time, Japan can only choose to say that I I took the initiative to lower the Japanese depreciation exchange rate and let the Japanese depreciation depreciate. This will make my export business easier and give me some advantages. From this perspective, if Japan wants to do this, it may usher in inflation and in the future.
Japan itself has 0 interest rates or even negative interest rates, but the United States is now raising interest rates. This allows investors around the world to see that the U.S. dollar is more fragrant and the U.S. dollar has higher interest rates and is more profitable, so the Japanese yen will depreciate at this time. , and the prospects are not very good, so we might as well give up the yen and invest in the US dollar. This is also a small reason why the yen has been depreciating before. Of course, the two most fundamental reasons are the rise in international energy prices and Japan's economy itself is in recession. In March this year, Japan's core consumer price index rose 0.8% year-on-year, which was the largest increase in 19 years.
Japan's core consumer price index was originally very stable, but it suddenly rose this year, which also means that inflation is coming. Well, the Japanese people now go out to buy daily necessities, food and gas, which are much more expensive than before. But this is a good thing for the United States, because the Japanese yen has depreciated, and the US dollar is about to enter the market for harvest. It can be said that the Japanese economy has It is already on a downward slope. If it is harvested by the United States again, the Japanese yen may really face collapse.
In 2017, we saw a report released by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, which said that on average, 1 in 4 Japanese men are now unmarried, and 70% of Japanese unmarried people aged 18 to 34 years old. He has never been in love, because Asians like to pay attention to buying a wedding house. A wedding house is too expensive for Japan, and their own work is also a relatively heavy burden. Since the first year of Heisei, Japan's fertility rate has dropped All the way down. After 2003, the number of Japanese children could not keep up with the total number of cats and dogs in Japan.
Looking at the Japanese people’s low desire, low marriage rate and low fertility rate, it is actually a reflection of economic development. The Japanese have understood that they are living in a long downward cycle. Today's young Japanese do not buy a house or a car, nor do they get married or have children. They have nothing to do and do what they like. Apart from work, they may just watch movies. Watching anime and playing games, I started thinking about how to support myself when I was around 30 years old. According to statistics, Japanese national personal financial assets have increased from 1,000 trillion yen in 1990 to 1,700 trillion yen in 2015. This means that young Japanese people are becoming more and more interested in saving money and are increasingly able to save money. money, especially the elderly are better able to save money.
In fact, most Japanese elderly people still have quite a lot of savings. They like time deposits. According to statistics from a certain bank in Japan, 30% of their deposit accounts are not spent at all. Then another 30% of those accounts with frequent capital flows will turn into regular accounts where direct deposits can be made without spending any money. We say it is an important sign of economic recession or downturn. Everyone has lost their desire. We An important sign of the economic downturn is that everyone has lost their desire to consume. We can also see this from the lives of a large number of young and old people in Japan.
According to statistics, when Japanese elderly people are dying, the average person has assets of 35 million yen. This reminds me of that sentence, that is, what is the most tragic thing in the world? There is nothing better than spending money after people die. That does not mean that these Japanese elderly people are unwilling to consume, but that they are forced by the environment. On the one hand, you are worried about the future due to the economic downturn. You are afraid that you will not have enough money to spend in the future, so you have to Save it for emergencies. The average life span of Japanese people is very long. What if you live to be 80, 90 or 100 years old and you don’t have enough money? You won’t be able to make money at that time either.
In fact, this concept in Japan has been encouraged since their World War II . They encourage everyone to work more and get more, and they also encourage everyone to save for the future. After World War II, Japanese citizens also saved 15 to 20% of their income and developed a habit of saving money. So against this background, Japan also followed suit and launched sanctions against Russia, only to receive counter-sanctions from others. Let’s first talk about what Japan did to Russia at that time. For example, it prohibited Japanese individuals or entities from exporting trade with Donetsk and Luhansk , and also prohibited Russian institutions from issuing and circulating new products in Japan. The sovereign bond also announced that in principle it would ban the export of about 300 products and technologies such as semiconductors to Russia.
later added that it would ban 81 Russian entities, including shipyards and research institutes, from exporting goods. Japan would also be banned from exporting luxury goods to Russia starting from April 5. Later, some Russian ambassadors were even banned. I have also asked you to go back to the country. Pelosi had praised Japan's practices in front of the Japanese media before, but you, Russia, are not used to it either.Immediately afterwards, Japan was listed on the list of unfriendly countries by Russia. If you are on this list, it means that you have to live a tight life. We have already talked about Japan’s next encounters. It can be said that Japan You stung a hornet's nest by listening to other people's words, but it was you who got stung. Now you are in trouble, and in the end you have to be cut off by the United States, which devalued the Japanese yen so much. So why do you think Japan is suffering?
