Gold continued its strong advance today. It fluctuated slightly from early trading to the opening of European trading. After the opening of European trading, gold quickly rose, breaking through the 1800 mark again, setting a new high in the past 9 years. Yesterday, gold fell first and then rose, and European trading It fell as low as 1,773.42 US dollars per ounce, and then began to rebound. Especially in the US market, the rise was rapid, and the trading volume also increased significantly. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX had a trading volume of nearly 2 in the ten minutes from 22:02 to 22:12 last night. million lots, with a total trading contract value of over US$3 billion.
Regarding the trend of gold and silver , I will review it from the following aspects:
1. Main member transaction and position ranking list:
1, Shanghai Futures Exchange member transaction and position ranking list au2012:
Shanghai Gold AU2012: Trading volume 176961, an increase or decrease of 49224; 117628 buy orders, an increase or decrease of 4935; 42520 sell orders, an increase or decrease of 3106;
2, Shanghai Futures Exchange member transaction and position ranking list ag2012:
Shanghai Silver AG2012: trading volume 895020, an increase or decrease of -97474; There are 240819 buy orders, an increase or decrease of 2159; 137776 sell orders, an increase or decrease of 6698;
interpretation: The main institutions have dominant long positions, Shanghai gold is net long, and Shanghai silver short positions are more increased.
2. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) metal commodity trading volume report
1, gold futures, electronic trading contract 247352, OTC contract 4385, trading volume 251737, open interest 574280, position change 14910;
2, Gold options, electronic trading contract 33268, OTC contract 9355, trading volume 42623, open interest 1235053, position change 14991;
3, gold call option, electronic trading contract 22367, OTC contract 6540, trading volume 28907, unopened Closed contracts 899942, position changes 9758;
4, gold put options, electronic trading contracts 10901, OTC contracts 2815, trading volume 13716, open contracts 335111, position changes 5233;
interpretation: Gold options contracts increased significantly, bullish There is far more open interest in options than in puts, and more calls in accumulation than puts.
3. Technical analysis
(1), Gold Day K-line chart:
Gold Day Cycle Long and Short Trend Chart : Red Bull Trend!
1, moving average: 5-day moving average , 10-day moving average maintain golden cross , the 5th, 10th, 20th, and 30th maintain a long arrangement, the 5-day moving average, 10-day moving average tilt upward;
2, MACD: golden cross, DEA is above the zero axis, the red column is enlarged;
3, KDJ: golden cross in the overbought range;
(2), Shanghai Gold AU2012 daily K-line chart:
Shanghai Gold AU2012 contract daily cycle long and short trend chart: red bullish trend !
1, moving average: maintain the golden cross on the 5th and 10th, maintain the long arrangement on the 5th, 10th, 20th, and 30th;
2, MACD: maintain the golden cross, DEA is above the zero axis, and the red column begins to enlarge;
3, KDJ: Maintain the dead cross and tend to the golden cross;
interpretation: Technically, gold maintains a strong bullish trend, and Shanghai gold fluctuates towards the bullish trend.
4. The latest important events affecting gold and silver conditions:
1. The holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, decreased by 34.77 tons compared with the previous day, and the current holdings are 15637.39 tons. The holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased by 7.89 tons from the previous day, and the current holdings are 1199.36 tons.
2, the most active gold futures contract on COMEX has a trading volume of nearly 20,000 lots in the ten minutes from 22:02 to 22:12, with a total contract value of more than 3 billion US dollars.
3. Central Bank of China: Chinaâs gold reserves at the end of June were at 62.64 million ounces (approximately 1,948.32 tons), the same as last month.
4. Central Bank of Russia: Russiaâs gold reserves rose to US$130.79 billion in June. Russian Ministry of Finance: Russiaâs gold output from January to April was 81.27 tons and silver output was 286.69 tons.
5, The World Gold Council said on Tuesday that investors' concerns about the epidemic are still increasing, and they are frantically hoarding gold. Data shows that gold ETF accumulated 104 tons of metal in June, worth US$5.6 billion.This year's inflows into exchange-traded funds, mostly from North America and Europe, are within striking distance of the annual record set in 2009. Total physical gold holdings in ETFs increased by more than 600 tons this year, and ETF inflows in the first quarter exceeded retail purchases in China and India for the first time since 2009.
6. The minutes of the Federal Reserveâs discount rate meeting from May 18 to June 10 also showed that regional Fed governors expected that the economy would experience a sharp decline due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. Most governors expect unemployment to slow but remain very high. Even as businesses reopen, consumption remains depressed.
7. Yesterday, many Federal Reserve officials revealed their concerns about the US economic situation. This has to some extent strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may take new easing measures. The epidemic in the United States continues to intensify. Yesterday, Texas and Missouri recorded the largest daily increase in confirmed cases of the new crown, which also led to more funds pouring into the gold market.
Interpretation: As the epidemic in the United States continues to worsen, many Federal Reserve officials have revealed concerns about the economic conditions of the United States. This has, to a certain extent, strengthened the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve may take new easing measures, thus driving gold's surge.
Note: This article is a compilation and summary of public data and does not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.
