Source: Core Stuff, Yingchuang Business Review, China Semiconductor Forum, EETOP
Internet of Things Think Tank compiled and released
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Introduction
On July 24, Intel announced in its second quarter 2020 financial report that due to There are defects in the 7nm process, resulting in a decline in the yield rate. The release time of its 7nm CPU is now postponed by 6 months compared to the previously planned date. It is expected that the new product may not be released to the world until the second half of 2022 or early 2023, which is faster than other products. Internal targets are already about 12 months behind.
Around 1987, Intel, which was nearly 20 years old, faced an "unprecedented catastrophe" since its birth. At that time, due to the rapid rise of Japanese memory manufacturers and their fierce price wars, the memory business was dragged into the Red Sea market. In addition, the market growth rate gradually slowed down. This made Intel, which still insisted on memory as its entrepreneurial direction, feel that it was in the memory field for a long time. 's dominance is under threat.
Of course, this is also reflected in Intel's revenue. By the time Andy Grove took over from Gordon Moore as Intel's CEO, Intel had already lost a full 135 million in the previous year. Dollar. This situation was undoubtedly a critical one for Grove, who took over Intel at this time.
The top priority is that Grove must not only support the building from collapse, but also turn the tide before it collapses. If you want to help the company get out of trouble, you have to make a series of major adjustments. But where is the direction?
In order to paint a new vision for Intel's future, Grove, who was forced into a historical corner, asked Moore two bottoming out questions:
"If we step down, what do you think the new guys will do?" Action?"
Moore hesitated and replied: "They will give up the memory business completely. "
"In that case, why don't you and I step out of this comfort zone, open this door and do it ourselves? "
Although it may be cruel for Intel to give up its identity as the memory hegemon for nearly 20 years, it cannot be established without breaking. The two legendary leaders of Intel finally reached an agreement on "change" and gave up 20 years of hard work. The "old position" of memory has turned to the "new position" of chips.
Grove appeared in "Times"
The subsequent story As you can see, after Grove's series of strategic adjustments, the potential of Moore's Law was continuously tapped, which allowed the former memory overlord to quickly complete the leap and break away. It transformed into a chip giant and quickly occupied the global PC market.
However, prospered and then declined, whether it will prosper or not depends on the time and the trend.
At the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century, Intel once again faced the test of history.
Previous Intel process roadmap (Source: Zhidongxi)
On July 24, Intel announced in its second quarter 2020 financial report that has defects in its 7nm process, resulting in a decline in yield, and will now release its 7nm CPU. The time is delayed by 6 months compared to the previously planned date. It is expected that the new product may not be released to the world until the second half of 2022 or early 2023, which is about 12 months behind its internal target.
In desperation, Intel CEO Bob Swan explained that the root cause of Intel's 7nm process production difficulties has been found and is being solved. The company's 7nm process does not have any basic obstacles and will go all out as planned. In order to achieve 7nm mass production in an attempt to stabilize the market.
However, contrary to expectations, the market still gave Intel ruthless feedback. Affected by this news, Intel's stock price immediately plummeted 718%. The stock market plunge caused shareholder wealth to shrink by 741 billion US dollars. It also dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Index.
But the ruthlessness of the market is ultimately gentler than Intel's own cruel reality. After all, there is something to be thankful for amidst all the bad news, and that is that Intel's second quarter financial report still maintains very eye-catching growth and considerable profits. income. In contrast, Intel's long-standing "process confusion" has deeply torn open the scars of its chip manufacturing.
In fact, the 10nm process that Intel values again has encountered many difficulties at the beginning of its research and development that year, and has been postponed many times. It was originally planned to be mass produced in 2017. In fact, it was not until early 2019 that mass production was achieved for the first time. In order to make up for the delay of 10nm chips, Intel is determined to work hard on 7nm to ensure on-time delivery. For this reason, not long ago Intel vowed to announce that its chip process improvement speed had been fully restored, but now it is not the case.
This makes the industry have to mention again: Is the technical advantage of Intel in still there?
At the same time, Intel's opponents have never been idle, and they continue to make progress in new technologies, and even form a crushing trend.
At the 31st Apple Annual Developers Conference WWDC held by Apple in June this year, Cook officially announced a self-developed chip plan. From the end of this year to the next two years, it will gradually integrate Intel processing on Mac computers. Although the two versions of the platform are still developed in parallel, the significance is very clear and it draws a perfect end to the cooperation between the two companies. Another direct competitor of
, TSMC, is even faster. Since the mass production of 7nm in 2018, its 5nm process has now begun mass production. In TSMC’s 2019 fourth quarter financial report analysis conference call in January this year, TSMC CEO and Vice Chairman Wei Zhejia talked about the 5nm process and revealed plans for large-scale mass production in the first half of this year. Recently, Wei Zhejia has revealed its 4nm process, which can be said to be a pursuit of victory.
describes it as "internal and external troubles". Intel's current situation can be described as being besieged on all sides. This is exactly the case for
. In the financial report, Intel, which is still the world's largest IDM (Integrated Design and Manufacture; vertically integrated manufacturing factory) manufacturer, also had to throw out another plan: considers cooperating with a third-party wafer factory Collaborate for greater choice and flexibility.
Just today, the latest news came from many media. Among them, Digtime said that Intel's GPU outsourcing orders due to the delay of 7nm will select TSMC 6nm as the target, while CPU orders can choose 5nm and 3nm.
Digtime also analyzed that in terms of chip technology, the leading Samsung Electronics has a poor yield rate on the 5nm process, and 3nm is a mystery. Therefore, Intel has determined that it will not seek OEM services from Samsung. Based on the elimination method, it is speculated that only TSMC .
Later, according to digital blogger @手机 Chipmaster, Intel and TSMC have reached an agreement to reserve 180,000 6nm chip production capacity from the latter next year.
However, from the current point of view, it seems that Intel's move is not favored by the outside world. Bloomberg bluntly stated that Intel’s outsourcing of chip production means that the semiconductor era dominated by Intel and even the United States will come to an end. Raymond James's Caso also made the same sound, "Intel's move will give up the competitive advantage it has been proud of for 50 years."
But if there are no political factors, who can accurately predict Intel's strategic adjustment this time? Is it good or bad? Just like when Intel cut off its strength, decisively gave up its memory business, and chose to embrace chips.
TSMC entered the field of semiconductor "OEM" with "low technical content and meager income", and was even ridiculed by Jerry Sanders, the founder of AMD. The subsequent result was that as TSMC grew, AMD had to abandon its original partners, joining hands with TSMC, which has the most advanced manufacturing processes.
In terms of trends, TSMC's success is not accidental. It is based on vertical cultivation of a certain link among IDM manufacturers such as Intel, and has achieved great success. It has won more than half of the world's chip foundry orders, including Apple, Huawei Giants such as and Qualcomm are all its customers, and more Internet companies will join in the future, and the potential of chip "OEM" has been fully demonstrated;
Technically, is represented by TSMC. The chip process has been brought to the 5nm, 3nm, and even 2nm stages.Intel has lagged behind in chip technology for a long time, and the economic impact of any minor problems in the semiconductor industry will be catastrophic, so Intel's second-best solution is not unfeasible;
based on experience , As an opponent of Intel, ADM has set an example. After trusting chip manufacturing to TSMC, its new products have won a good reputation in the industry with its reliable multi-core performance and low price.
There is a sentence in "Book of Changes·Xici": "If you are poor, you will change, if you change, you will be general, and if you are general, you will last." ; Andy Grove, one of Intel's revolutionaries, once said: "The strategic turning point is for all enterprises The most fundamental change, whether it is a technology-based company or a non-technical company. "
Isn't the Intel at this moment also the Intel at that time?
Reference source:
. "Intel 7nm process delayed by 6 months! ", Core East and West . "This decision made Intel the world's largest chip manufacturer and dominated the world for decades", Yingchuang Business Review . "Breaking news! Intel's 7nm yield rate suffered a setback! ", China Semiconductor Forum . "TSMC has received orders for Intel's 6nm chips! Bloomberg: Heralding the end of the era of U.S.-dominated semiconductors”, EETOPMusk’s starship exploded! But it is not the one that
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