Ark Investment analyst Yassine Elmandjra wrote an article on the 4th to share his latest views on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that Bitcoin may be approaching the bottom of another century, but the macro environment still seriously affects the prospects of Bitcoin. If t

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Ark Invest analyst Yassine Elmandjra wrote an article on the 4th to share his latest views on the trend of the cryptocurrency market. He believes that Bitcoin may be approaching the bottom of another century, but the macro environment still seriously affects Bitcoin. Bitcoin prospects, if the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, Bitcoin may continue to be affected.

He pointed out that from the perspective of Bitcoin price history, Bitcoin is currently below the 200-week moving average and the short-term and long-term cost basis for the fourth time in history, and below these levels is a clear generational bottom in history.

Yassine Elmandjra shared the timetable of major events in the currency market and pointed out that after the Terra crash in May, the entire currency ecosystem has been unraveled. This is because the cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius fell into a liquidity crisis and the hedge fund Three Arrows Caused by capital insolvency crisis.

Yassine Elmandjra mentioned that in response to a large amount of capital flight, Celsius froze withdrawals on June 12. Celsius’s DeFi outstanding debt is $631 million, but the scale of its non-DeFi exposure is unclear; and because Celsius stopped withdrawals , triggered a market sell-off, and then it was reported that Three Arrows Capital was unable to meet margin call requirements. Several lenders and exchanges hinted or explicitly confirmed that they had liquidated Three Arrows Capital's positions.

Although the market has been greatly affected, Yassine Elmandjra shared data and pointed out that Bitcoin’s fundamentals seem to remain stable. Bitcoin’s trading volume and locked supply remain bullish, and mining difficulty, active holders, and long-term holders Supply remains neutral, while mining revenue and time-weighted volume are bearish.

Regarding the mining industry, Yassine Elmandjra mentioned that miners are facing tremendous pressure, and miner surrender is a key bottom sign. The Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator is a method that compares miners’ daily income with its annual average. A comparative measure, the indicator is at a three-year low.

Yassine Elmandjra further pointed out that Bitcoin’s net realized loss recently hit a nearly 2-year low, falling below 0.5% for the fourth time since 2013, and judging from the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator, Bitcoin may fall further, The metric is currently about 17% below its total cost base, and historically a global bottom is formed when it reaches above 25%.

Yassine Elmandjra finally concluded that the macro-environmental situation still seriously affects the prospects of Bitcoin. Credit default swaps (CDS) have more than doubled since September, the yield curve has flattened, and despite signs of recession, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish if monetary tightening continues. Risky assets like Bitcoin are likely to continue to suffer.