Core point of view: From the background of the automotive industry, sales of new energy vehicles have increased rapidly, and the automotive semiconductor boom has continued: the process of "three modernizations" of automobiles has continued to accelerate, and the demand for vario

(Report Producer/Author: Founder Securities, Duan Yingsheng)

Core views:

From the background of the automotive industry, new energy vehicle sales have increased rapidly, and the automotive semiconductor boom has continued: the automotive ", three-to-" process has continued to accelerate, and various types of The demand for automotive semiconductors has increased to varying degrees. Automotive-grade MCUs are a type of automotive chip with a wide range of application scenarios. The automotive-grade MCU market has broad prospects. From the perspective of short-term major events: automotive grade MCU is one of the "protagonists" of this round of "core shortage" incidents. Multiple factors contributed to a serious "core shortage" crisis in the automotive industry chain, which led to a huge impact on global automobile production. Difficulty, at this stage, automotive grade MCU is still one of the most scarce types among many automotive chips.

From the perspective of medium and long-term development trends: the epidemic will eventually pass, and the development trend is unstoppable. The automotive electronic and electrical (E/E) architecture is changing, and the demand for automotive MCUs will change accordingly. We have predicted the market size of automotive-grade MCUs during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period: Against the background of optimistic expectations based on the unexpected increase in the penetration rate of and in new energy vehicles, China's automotive-grade MCU market size from 2022 to 2025 They are 33.63, 37.53, 4.166, and 4.593 billion US dollars respectively; the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 is 11.22%. The current import rate of domestic automotive chips is as high as 95%, and Chinese automobiles are the market with the largest demand for automotive-grade chips. Extraordinary times have given rise to historical opportunities. Domestic manufacturers are expected to emerge as a new force and compete in another golden track for domestic semiconductors to replace the main line.

1. From the automotive electronics industry chain to car specifications MCU chips

1.1. The automotive electronics industry chain

As the penetration rate of ADAS functions continues to increase, the value share of automotive electronics has grown rapidly from 5% in the 1970s to 35% in 2010. In the future, the proportion of in-vehicle electronics is expected to reach 50%. All electronic components require semiconductors. With the development of electrification, intelligence, and networking, chips are increasingly used in automobiles, and the content of semiconductors and is getting higher and higher.

1.2. Automotive Semiconductor Overview

In order to realize more complex automotive functions, domain controller technology (DCU) is required, and the status of domain controller SoC chip has become increasingly prominent. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

1.3. MCU Overview

MCU (Microcontroller Unit) is called a microcontroller unit or single-chip microcomputer. It appropriately reduces the frequency and specifications of the central processor , and combines the memory, counter , and peripherals. Interfaces and other content are integrated on a single chip to form a chip-level computer. Widely used in consumer electronics, Internet of Things, automotive electronics, industrial control and other fields.

1.4. Automotive MCU classification and application

8-bit MCU: Provides low-end control functions: fan control, air conditioning control, wipers, sunroof, window lift, low-end instrument panel, junction box, seat control, door control module . 16-bit MCU: Provides mid-range control functions: for power systems, such as engine control, gear and clutch control, and electronic turbine systems; for chassis, such as suspension systems, electronic power steering, torque dispersion control, and electronic pumps , electronic brakes, etc. 32-bit MCU: Provides high-end control functions: plays an important role in realizing L1 and L2 autonomous driving functions, such as instrument panel control, body control, multimedia information system, engine control, as well as emerging intelligent and real-time safety systems and power system.

2. Event: Auto parts shortage tide - short-term supply and demand of automotive MCUs

2.1. Event: Automobile core shortage tide

Usually, it takes 12-16 weeks for MCU to complete in-house production. Compared with 22Q1, the shortage of MCUs is more obvious, and most MCUs are in shortage, especially STMicroelectronics and NXP. Automotive MCUs are currently only available from Renesas, , Cypress, and . The delivery period is 32-45 weeks, and other brands are in shortage. In 2022, automotive MCU orders are almost full, and prices continue to rise. Among them, STMicroelectronics announced on March 24 that it would raise prices for all product lines in the second quarter. Today, the demand for MCUs is not just in quantity. With the promotion of emerging industries, new requirements for low power consumption, high computing power, customization, and dedicated peripherals are gradually increasing.

At present, MCUs are divided into consumer-grade MCUs, industrial-grade MCUs and automotive-grade MCUs according to different indicators. Different MCUs have different yield requirements. Among them, consumer-grade MCUs focus on power consumption and cost, while industrial-grade MCUs focus on balancing new energy, power consumption, Cost and reliability, automotive-grade MCUs focus on safety and reliability. From the consumer to industrial to automotive fields, the requirements for the MCU itself are becoming more and more stringent, and the production lines are becoming more and more high-end. This is the most important reason why automotive MCUs are most difficult to manufacture. .

2.2. Summary: Short-term market supply and demand situation

The automotive sector will maintain its leading position: the automotive application field occupied more than 35% of the market share in 2020, and is expected to grow at a rate of about 10% by 2027.

automotive chip factory, wafer foundry factory raw material costs are rising. The epidemic has affected supply chain factors. The overall production cycle has become longer and requires advanced process nodes below 40 nanometers. It relies on foundry technology and extremely high product consistency requirements, which cannot be replaced at will. The threshold for production lines and suppliers of automotive-grade chips is high, and other manufacturers cannot quickly pass certification in a short period of time. It will still take a long period from investment in capacity expansion to realization of capacity growth. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

3. Automotive MCU mid-term analysis and long-term outlook

3.1. Automotive E/E (electronic and electrical) architecture

As the functions of automobiles gradually increase, especially after the "three modernizations" of automobiles, traditional distributed There are disadvantages in adding ECU to the architecture to increase car functions, such as a waste of computing power, complex wiring in the car, low efficiency of car space usage, difficulty in system upgrade, and increasing marginal cost of new ECUs. It is a general trend to use domain controllers to reasonably integrate ECU functions.

This article analyzes: After the "core shortage" incident, the supply and demand of automotive MCUs returned to normal. What impact will the two major processes of automotive "three modernizations" and the continuous evolution of electronic and electrical architecture from distributed to domain control have on the demand for automotive MCUs? This is the definition and premise of this "mid-term" analysis. We will not discuss the more cutting-edge E/E architecture ideas for the time being.

3.2. Bosch five-domain division of automotive MCU mid-term changes

Advanced Driving Assistance System ADAS (Advanced Driving Assistance System) refers to the acquisition of vehicle body, environment, human body and other information through vehicle sensors to achieve driving assistance, and will further realize automatic driving Driving car functional systems. ADAS mainly includes active safety, driving comfort, parking assistance and other functions. At present, the Chinese automobile market is still in the stage of rapid penetration of L2 levels. Vehicle manufacturers consider cost and performance comprehensively, and new ADAS functions still use a distributed architecture. A major role of the MCU in the

autonomous driving domain controller is to serve as the security chip (safety core). The security chip is added to prevent unexpected hardware failures, diagnose abnormal conditions, or have a safe backup solution when a single failure occurs. The automotive ISO 26262 functional safety standard mentioned above is the safety standard of the automotive industry. The design of qualified automotive SoC must comply with this standard.

3.3. Mid-term summary and long-term trend analysis

Based on the above trends, we believe that MCUs should still have a place in the control of traditional functions, while their use in cockpits and autonomous driving has declined. With the further development of the E/E architecture, there is also a trend of integration between the cockpit domain and the autonomous driving domain, until the entire vehicle central computer control architecture is realized. In the future, there may be a cloud central computer to control the vehicle. In the future, cars will be highly intelligent and automated, and the long-term demand for automotive MCUs may be on a downward trend. Summary: The process of vehicle electrification and intelligence in the mid-term will increase the demand for automotive MCUs.

4. Global market competition pattern and domestic substitution opportunities & market size forecast

4.1. Automotive semiconductor industry overview

The Chinese market only accounts for 3% (low-end part). At present, my country’s automotive chip self-sufficiency rate is less than 10%, and the localization rate is less than 10%. Only 5%, supply is highly dependent on foreign demand side: Chinese automobiles account for about 30% of the world, and are the market with the largest demand for automotive-grade chips. Supply side: The import rate of domestic automotive chips is as high as 95%, such as those used in power systems, chassis control and Key chips for ADAS and other functions are monopolized by foreign giants.

4.2. Automotive MCU competition landscape

The global automotive MCU market has a high degree of concentration and has a fab-lite strategy, relying on wafer foundries to transform technology into chip products. From the supply side, TSMC accounts for about 60%-70% of all outsourced automotive MCU shipments, but its automotive chip business only accounts for 3% of its total revenue. The strong dependence of leading manufacturers on TSMC has amplified the mismatch between supply and demand: TSMC has reduced its production capacity allocation for automotive-grade MCUs due to the epidemic, and after terminal demand has increased, the supply of automotive-grade chips has exceeded demand.

4.3. The trend of domestic substitution and the industrialization process of manufacturers

Local manufacturers have a small market share in automotive MCUs and have large room for development; The impact of the macro market has intensified the urgency of local substitution, MCUs continue to be out of stock, and overseas large The factory's new production capacity is limited, and the trend of domestic substitution continues; policy support promotes MCU R&D and industrialization and maintains the stable operation of the automotive industry.

4.4. Market size forecast

The forecast time range refers to the mid-term and "14th Five-Year Plan" periods mentioned above in this article, that is, based on historical data from 2019-2021, assumptions and expectations for development in 2022-2025 are made. The goal of the "14th Five-Year Plan" comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country will reach about 20% by 2025. In addition, based on the current situation of rapid growth in the monthly new energy vehicle market, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles since 2022 will be 17%. %, 19%, 22%, 25% and 24%. Considering that the overall sales volume of automobiles is at a low point in recent years, and the penetration rate is the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to total automobile sales, the rapid increase in penetration rate does not mean that With the high popularity of new energy vehicles and , we give a cautious expectation of 25% and an optimistic expectation of 30% for the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2025. (Report source: Future Think Tank)

report excerpt: (This article is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice on our part. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original report.)

Selected report source: [Future Think Tank] Future Think Tank - Official website