The Sri Lankan Court of Appeal issued a temporary injunction on December 3, suspending Prime Minister Rajapaksa and 49 government ministers from their duties until December 12. since the 2015 parliamentary elections.

The Court of Appeal of Sri Lanka issued a temporary injunction on December 3, suspending Prime Minister Rajapaksa and 49 government ministers from their duties until December 12. Since the 2015 parliamentary election, the struggle between pro-India and pro-China factions in Sri Lanka has been full of twists and turns. The suspension of the powers of the prime minister and ministers this time is just a small wave in the fierce struggle. In the end, who wins and who loses depends on both sides in the parliament. The outcome of the contest will not be known until the next parliamentary election or presidential election.

(from left to Wickremesinghe, Sirisena, Rajapaksa)

The political chaos in Sri Lanka will be difficult to calm down in the short term

On October 26, Sirisena was suspected of assassinating a cabinet minister in the Wickremesinghe government. On the grounds of being president, Wickremesinghe was dismissed as prime minister, former President Rajapaksa was appointed as the new prime minister, and a new government was formed. But Wickremesinghe believes that according to Sri Lanka's constitution, the change of prime minister must pass a parliamentary vote. Since Wickremesinghe's supporters still control the Sri Lankan Parliament, motions of no confidence in Rajapaksa and his government have been passed twice on November 14 and 16. This time the Sri Lankan Court of Appeal issued an interim injunction, which only reiterated the relevant requirements of the Sri Lankan Parliament.

The current parliament was elected in 2016 and has a six-year term. However, in the past two years, the pro-Indian Sri Lankan government has not solved domestic economic problems well, and Sri Lanka's political situation has undergone some changes. At the beginning of this year, the Sri Lanka People's Party, which was just founded by former President Rajapaksa, won a complete victory in the local elections and occupied a majority in about 70% of the administrative district councils. In order to completely destroy Wickremesinghe, Sirisena proposed dissolving parliament in January next year and holding an early election. The Wickremesinghe camp demanded that the Sri Lankan judicial system rule on whether Sirisena's decision was legal. Sri Lanka's Court of Appeal will rule on the legality of the dissolution of Parliament on December 7. Now it has announced the suspension of the new government's powers three days in advance, which has sent a signal that is not conducive to Sirisena.

Sirisena, who has the power of the president, will not be willing to lose control of the government. Wickremesinghe, who controls the parliament, will not give up his throne as prime minister. Rajapaksa, who has just won the local election, also wants to return to the political center. In the three parties, Despite the struggle, Sri Lanka's political chaos will not easily subside.

Rajapaksa was sworn in to Sirisena

Differences in diplomatic lines are an important reason for Sri Lanka's political chaos

Sri Lanka has a long tradition of friendship with China. Rajapaksa, who is friendly to China, would have had the opportunity to start a new chapter in the 2015 presidential election. During his third presidential term, at the most critical moment of the general election, Sirisena, the general secretary of Rajapaksa’s Liberal Party, suddenly defected “with a gun” and led the Liberal Party to join forces with the United National Party and was successfully elected with candidates recommended by the two parties. President of Sri Lanka. After coming to power, Sirisena and the United National Party leader Wickremesinghe had very different views on many major political policies, but he and his old partner Rajapaksa were "like-minded". Especially on the issue of foreign relations, Wickremesinghe advocates leaning towards India and implementing a foreign policy similar to the Maldives' "India First", while Sirisena and Rajapaksa advocate being friendly to China and actively participating in the "One Belt, One Road" "initiative.

When Sirisena first came to power, he also reviewed the contracts signed by the former president and Chinese companies, just like the Maldives and Malaysia recently. However, Sirisena gradually realized that India itself also lacked funds for infrastructure construction and was simply unable to do so. Provide help to Sri Lanka and begin to re-implement friendly foreign policy. In 2017, Sirisena and Wickremesinghe already had a battle over the Hambantota Port issue. Hambantota Port is only 10 nautical miles away from the main international shipping routes. More than half of the world's container freight, one-third of the bulk shipping and two-thirds of oil transportation pass through here. It is known as the "Crossroad of the East". Mouth" and "Heart of the Indian Ocean".Sirisena insisted on leasing the port to China, while Wickremesinghe firmly opposed it. In the end, Sirisena's opinion prevailed. This incident is considered to be the dividing line between the current Sri Lankan government's implementation of pro-India or pro-China foreign policies, and also a watershed in the relationship between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe..

During the process of disbanding the Wickremesinghe government, Sirisena publicly declared that the attempted assassination planned by the Wickremesinghe government was carried out by agents from the Indian military intelligence department. This statement also shows that Sirisena has completely broken with domestic pro-India political forces and the Indian government, and there is no possibility of turning back.

(Location of Hambantota Port)

In recent years, countries in South Asia such as Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka have experienced political turmoil. This political turmoil is largely the result of the struggle between the big powers behind them. As India's economic strength improves, the United States attaches great importance to the Indian Ocean region, and the "One Belt, One Road" initiative becomes more popular, this game will become more intense. Most of South Asia belongs to the least developed countries, and what local people and political elites value most is tangible development interests. If India and the United States continue to just talk and no longer seek common development as they did in the past, they will not take practical measures to pursue common development in South Asia. Influence will continue to decline. The Indian Ocean is not an ocean belonging to India, and South Asia does not naturally belong to India.

Do you think Wickremesinghe will invite India to send troops to intervene if the political situation in Sri Lanka continues to be turbulent? Will India accept the invitation?

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