The wind power industry is a key strategic area for the development of clean energy. In the "14th Five-Year Plan", my country has clearly proposed to vigorously increase the scale of wind power and develop offshore wind power construction in an orderly manner.
In January 2020, the Ministry of Finance issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Non-Water Renewable Energy Power Generation". New offshore wind power will no longer be included in the scope of central financial subsidies. The approval (filing) will be completed in accordance with regulations and will be completed on December 31, 2021. Recently, all units have completed the grid connection of and has been included in the scope of central financial subsidies. The current subsidy policy for in 2022 and beyond is waiting for the introduction of relevant local policies.
According to National Energy Administration data, the country's new grid-connected wind power capacity reached 71.67GW in 2020. Among them, the newly installed capacity of onshore wind power reached 68.61GW, catalyzed by the cancellation of national subsidies, and the newly installed capacity of offshore wind power reached 3.06GW, accounting for 10% of the global total. 50.45% of the newly installed capacity.
From a global perspective, the development of sea breeze in Europe, the United States, Japan and other regions is accelerating. According to the Global Wind Energy Association's forecast, the world's newly installed sea wind capacity is expected to reach 24GW in 2025, nearly four times that of 2020.
Offshore wind farms are large-scale and clustered. Through technological advancements such as large-scale wind turbines, offshore wind power is rapidly reducing costs, and domestic offshore wind power is expected to usher in an explosive period. 
Offshore wind power system: There are significant differences between onshore wind power and offshore wind power
my country's onshore wind power started early and has a good foundation, but its growth is expected to slow down in the future due to factors such as consumption, environmental protection, and land; while offshore wind power has good resource consumption conditions , with great development potential, it is expected that onshore wind power will become an important starting point to achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions.
At the same time, offshore wind power has strong wind speed, stable output, and low land cost. It can well complement onshore wind power in sparsely populated areas along the coast. The resource endowment is consistent with development demands. It is suitable for the construction of wind farms and has room for long-term growth. huge.
In essence, onshore wind power is "units + power grid + general power engineering"; offshore wind power is "wind power projects + ocean engineering", submarine optical cables, offshore pile foundations and offshore installations such as gondolas and piling Ship is an important part of offshore wind power projects.
Because it involves marine engineering, offshore wind power projects include more offshore pile foundations and submarine optical cables than onshore wind power, and the proportion of development investment costs is significantly different.
Chart source: Xingxingcha
Offshore wind power project process
The early stage of offshore wind power development includes three stages: offshore wind power planning, application for project development rights, and application for project approval. Offshore wind power planning includes site selection, on-site investigation, project environmental assessment and program design research, etc.
Offshore wind farm is mainly composed of a certain scale of wind power foundation and power transmission system. Wind power foundation includes parts of wind turbines such as blades, wind turbines, towers and unit installation. The power transmission system consists of AC collector lines, offshore booster stations and reactive power compensation equipment, submarine cables, onshore substations and reactive power compensation equipment. Most of the built offshore wind farms use high-voltage AC transmission systems (HVAC ).
The construction of offshore wind farms is much more difficult than that of onshore wind farms. The difficulties lie in high risk, high height, and high precision (millimeter level). Therefore, the construction cost is 2-3 times that of onshore wind farms. Among them, the important cost items include equipment, cables and engineering. In addition, the cost of offshore wind power is also related to factors such as seawater depth and offshore distance.
Offshore wind power operation and maintenance is jointly responsible by wind power machine manufacturers and operators.
Offshore wind power panorama:
Source: The Crown Estate
Offshore wind power industry chain analysis
The structure of the offshore wind power industry chain is similar to that of onshore wind power. It can be roughly divided into raw material production and parts manufacturing in the upstream, complete machines and related offshore wind power in the midstream. It consists of three links: cable construction and downstream wind power operator grid operation.
The hardware equipment of the offshore wind power project accounts for about 50% of the investment, and is mainly composed of wind turbines, wind towers and pile foundations, and submarine cables. Calculated based on the current average offshore wind power development investment cost of 14,000 yuan/KW, from 2018 to 2020 for The offshore wind power market for complete machine manufacturers and peripheral component suppliers such as pile foundations and submarine optical cables is nearly 90 billion yuan.
Due to the high technical barriers to offshore wind power and the obvious first-mover advantage of industry chain companies, a winner-takes-all pattern is prone to emerge, and the industry is highly concentrated.
Chart source: Xingxingcha
Upstream of the offshore wind power industry chain: raw materials
The key raw materials involved in the upstream of the offshore wind power industry chain include steel, aluminum, copper, concrete, glass fiber, carbon fiber, epoxy resin, permanent magnet materials, etc. The
blade serves as the input end of the wind turbine generator , and its material performance directly determines the output power of the wind power generation device. After nearly a hundred years of development, the current stage of fan blades has transitioned from wooden blades, cloth-covered blades, and aluminum alloy blades to the field of composite materials composed of matrix resin, reinforced fibers, core materials and other polymer materials.
At present, wind turbine blades mainly use glass fiber as reinforcing materials. However, in order to meet the requirements for large-scale and lightweight wind turbine blades, China will use more carbon fiber in the production of wind turbine blades in the future.
According to the "China Wind Power Development Roadmap 2050" plan, the market share of wind turbines using carbon fiber in 2020, 2030 and 2050 is expected to reach 22.16%, 35.45% and 61.70%.
Global wind power giants have begun to expand into China's wind power carbon fiber market. Vestas has already cooperated with Jiangsu Aosheng Composite Materials and Guangwei Composite Materials in the early stage.
Upstream of the offshore wind power industry chain: wind turbine parts
Due to the low technical threshold, offshore wind power parts involve many links, mainly including blades, gearboxes, generators, bearings, castings, converters, electronic control systems, and towers. Frame, etc.
There is currently a large gap in the development of offshore wind power between China and Europe. In particular, China's large-scale offshore wind turbine technology has not yet been fully mastered. Some core equipment such as bearings, gearboxes, blades, and spindles rely on overseas manufacturers. Among them, blades and spindles are expected to be the first to be imported in the future. substitute.
Chart source: Xingxingcha
Fan blades
Fan blades are one of the key core components of wind turbines. From the perspective of the value of parts, blades are extremely valuable, and their cost accounts for approximately 22.2% of the total cost of the wind turbine.
The quality of blade design, manufacturing and operating conditions directly affects the performance and power generation efficiency of the entire machine, and has a significant impact on the operating costs of wind farms.
According to the working principle of wind power generation, the larger the radius of the wind wheel , the greater the power of a single machine, and the lower the cost of power generation. Therefore, with the rapid development of the global wind power industry, especially the rise of offshore wind power, the trend of large-scale wind turbines has become increasingly obvious, posing greater challenges to the performance of wind power materials.
From the perspective of blade diameter, in 2016, blades within 45-55 meters were the absolute main blade type; by 2018, blades around 55-60 meters occupied most of the market, and 60-65 meter blades also began mass production. It is expected that in 2021, wind turbine blades with a length of 55-70 meters or more will become the mainstream of the market, accounting for about 60% of the market share.
From the perspective of the global industry structure, the wind turbine blade market has diverse players and industry concentration is relatively dispersed. Foreign-funded enterprises mainly include GE, LM, TPI, Enercon, etc.
From the perspective of the domestic blade market, after the industry trough in 2016, the elimination of backward production capacity, the industry concentration continued to increase, with CR5 increasing from 59.6% in 2013 to 69% in 2020.
Domestic manufacturers include Sinoma Technology , Times New Materials , Zhongfu Lianzhong, AVIC Huiteng and other large state-controlled manufacturers, as well as private specialized blade companies such as Shanghai Ailan and Tianshun Blades. In addition, some main engine manufacturers such as Mingyang Intelligent also produces blades independently.
gearbox
The reliability of the gearbox plays a decisive role in the life of the wind turbine, especially the offshore high-power wind power gearbox.
The gearbox of the wind turbine is located inside the engine room. It is the weak link in the current transmission chain of the megawatt wind turbine . It is a component that is prone to overload and has a high rate of premature damage.
Both semi-direct drive and doubly-fed models have proven their respective advantages on the road to large-scale wind turbines, and are expected to increase the demand for wind power gearboxes.
According to statistics from the Global Wind Energy Association, the top three suppliers of wind power gearboxes in the world in 2019 (China High Speed Transmission, ZF , and Weinengji) had a combined market share of 68%. Overseas companies still have a higher presence in overseas markets. share.
Domestic advanced wind power gearbox suppliers represented by China High Speed Transmission (NGC) can basically meet domestic wind turbine production needs.
bearings
At present, the high-end bearings supporting high-power models in my country mainly rely on imports, and the premium of high-end bearings is relatively obvious.
According to statistics from Wood Mackenzie, in 2020 global wind power bearings are still mainly supplied by manufacturers in Germany, Sweden, Japan, and the United States. The total market share of domestic companies such as Luozhou, Wazhou, and Xinqianglian is less than 10%. , these domestic companies have successfully developed bearing products for large-megawatt models, but it still takes time to introduce them to customers and ship them in batches.
Castings
The continuous advancement of wind power construction has driven the demand for castings. Since 2017, the price war in the wind power industry chain has intensified. Domestic companies have actively promoted the "Two Seas Strategy", and the proportion of offshore large-scale wind power castings and overseas revenue has continued to increase.
Currently, about 80% of the world's casting production capacity comes from China. However, due to stricter environmental protection policies and the long expansion period of castings themselves, the growth rate of domestic casting production capacity has been low in the past two years.
Castings are a relatively well-established link in wind turbine parts. In the early stages of industry development, state-owned enterprises such as First Heavy Industry, Second Heavy Industry, Upper Heavy Industry, CITIC Heavy Industry, and Dalian Heavy Industry dominated the industry and were mainly used for self-supply. Riyue Shares , Yongguan Group, Jixin Technology , etc. gradually made efforts in the later period and took advantage of the segmented fields. At present, there are only about 7 domestic companies with a casting production capacity of more than 100,000 tons.
In 2020, Sun and Moon's wind power casting sales volume was 378,700 tons, with a global market share of about 18%, leading other domestic listed private enterprises. By the end of 2021, Sun and Moon's production capacity is expected to expand to approximately 480,000 tons.
Wind turbine control system
The cost of the wind turbine control system accounts for about 15% of the total cost of the wind power system, including the control system, yaw system, braking system, oil cooling system, water cooling system, frequency converter , pitch system, battery system, Safety chain etc. The
wind turbine control system is a comprehensive control system used to monitor the power grid, wind conditions and operating parameters of the unit. Control the grid connection and off-grid operation of the unit to ensure the safety and reliability of the operation process. At the same time, the unit must be optimized and controlled according to changes in wind speed and direction to improve the operating efficiency and power generation of the unit.
Wind power tower
The offshore wind tower industry concentration is higher than that on land, and at the same time, the industry concentration is relatively low.
The domestic market is mainly occupied by four leading companies: Tianshun Wind Energy , Taisheng Wind Energy , Daikin Heavy Industries and Tianneng Heavy Industries . Together they account for 28% of the global market share. Currently, most of the planned new production capacities are For offshore engineering products, industry concentration will continue to increase in the future.
Tianshun Wind Energy focuses on the high-end market, and its customers mainly cover global wind turbine giants such as Vestas, GE, Siemens Gamesa, Goldwind Technology , etc. In 2020, its global market share has rapidly increased to 6%, and it ranks first in the domestic market share.
From the perspective of production capacity expansion, Tianshun Wind Energy has added the Sanbei base and offshore tower production capacity, Taisheng Wind Energy plans to add 2 new offshore wind tower production capacities, and Daikin Heavy Industries has added Penglai offshore wind tower production capacity and the Sanbei base. Onshore wind tower capacity.
Capacity expansion of some wind power component manufacturers:
Chart source: Xingxingcha
Midstream of the offshore wind power industry chain: complete wind turbine machine
The top four manufacturers with the highest market share in the global market for offshore wind power complete machines are Siemens Gamesa. , Mitsubishi Vestas, Shanghai Electric and Goldwind Technology.
Judging from the newly installed capacity, my country's offshore wind power equipment manufacturers present a strong competition among the top four. The offshore wind power sector has now formed the "four giants" of Shanghai Electric, Envision Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Mingyang Intelligent China, accounting for 9.7%, 9.0%, 7.9%, and 7.4% of the world's newly installed capacity respectively.
The future development trend of offshore wind power is deep water and offshore, which will put forward higher requirements for the research and development, manufacturing, installation and operation and maintenance of wind turbines, and related equipment manufacturing. Leading companies that master core technologies have certain first-mover advantages. At present, Industry concentration is high.
Midstream of the offshore wind power industry chain: Submarine cable market growth is large, industry barriers are high
cable accounts for about 5% of the investment, and the unit cost of and is about 500 yuan/kW.
Submarine cables are one of the main differences between offshore wind power and onshore wind power, and import substitution has now been fully realized.
The growth in demand for submarine cables will be higher than the growth in offshore wind power installed capacity: Offshore wind power is developing from the intertidal zone to the offshore, and the offshore distance of offshore wind farms is increasing. The offshore distance of offshore wind farms that have been put into operation in my country is much smaller than that in Europe, and most of them are in Within 30km.
The submarine cable market has certain entry barriers compared with the terrestrial cable market.
The submarine cable market has higher equipment requirements. Submarine cables need to overcome problems such as seawater corrosion. The cross-sectional structure is more complex than that of land cables, and they require continuous production of a single cable. The capital investment is relatively large. For the purpose of industrial chain integration, submarine cables Cable companies usually require construction capabilities and need to build cable laying ships. The entry threshold also makes submarine cables highly profitable. The gross profit margin of submarine cables is usually 30%-40%, which is 2-3 times that of land cables. The geographical location is special. Submarine cables are usually directly wound on cable-laying ships after production. The factory must be close to rivers and seas;
Submarine cable industry barriers:
Chart source: Xingxingcha
Currently, there are only a small number of submarine cable companies in China. Zhongtian Technology , Dongfang Cable , and Hengtong Optoelectronics are among the first echelons of domestic companies. According to the bid winning results from 2017 to 2019, the three companies occupy approximately 98% of the market share. Zhongtian Technology has long ranked first in the domestic submarine cable market since 2009.
Offshore wind power downstream: Offshore wind power operation
Compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power has higher technical barriers, large initial investment and long project cycle. The development process is more complex, involves marine engineering, and requires coordination and approval from relevant departments. Therefore, there are higher requirements for developers with wind power development experience.
According to statistics, the total investment amount of a 500MW wind farm is about 9-10 billion, and the total investment payback period cycle of the entire project often exceeds 10 years, which has great impact on the developer's wind resource development capabilities, capital, debt financing capabilities and financing The cost requirements are higher.
Offshore wind power development and operation requires high initial investment and long project cycle. Developers are mainly led by large central power enterprises.
At present, the developers and operators of offshore wind power are mainly large central power enterprises and their affiliated energy companies, including China Southern Power Grid Integrated Energy Co., Ltd. , Huaneng , Datang , Shenergy , State Power Investment , and Three Gorges , mid-core , mid-core , etc.
Offshore wind power has rich exploitable resources, a small installed capacity base, and great potential for cost reduction. Local governments will most likely introduce subsidy policies for offshore wind power during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, driving the industry to continue to grow rapidly in the next five years. .
The driving factor for cost reduction in the future industry is technological improvement. With the development of the offshore wind power industry, the industry's technical and market thresholds will be further improved. Core companies will continue to deploy new production capacity as the industry scale expands, and the industry chain is prone to a winner-take-all pattern. Against the background of increasing industry concentration, industry chain leaders with core technical barriers and cost advantages may usher in a golden age.
