On December 1, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delivered a speech titled "Taiwan-Japan Relations in the New Era" at a video seminar held by a think tank in Taiwan, claiming that Japan could not tolerate an "armed invasion" of Taiwan and that "there is something wrong with Taiwan." "It is equivalent to "Japan is in trouble", or it can be said to be equivalent to "Japan-US alliance is in trouble", and taking military adventures is equivalent to "economic suicide."
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin responded that Abe’s remarks were pure “nonsense and unreasonable discussion of China’s internal affairs.” Why do a group of Japanese politicians represented by Abe frequently touch the "red line" on the Taiwan Strait issue?
Conservative politicians are obsessed with the old colonial dream
What kind of "Taiwan complex" does the Japanese politicians' repeated provocations on Taiwan-related issues reflect?
Abe’s arrogant remarks related to Taiwan are a concentrated exposure of his consistent political philosophy. As early as 1997, when Japan and the United States were revising their defense cooperation guidelines, he emphasized that "peripheral affairs" should include the Taiwan Strait. Abe has therefore become the representative figure of the "pro-Taiwan" faction within the Liberal Democratic Party. In fact, there are many conservative politicians in Japanese politics who hold the same stance as Abe. The reason for this is largely due to the lingering "Taiwan complex" in his subconscious.
Caption: Shinzo Abe. Picture source: GJ (the same below)
This "Taiwan complex" is rooted in the obsession of Japanese conservative politicians with the old colonial dream of invading and occupying Taiwan. After Japan's defeat in the war, it ended nearly half a century of colonial rule over Taiwan in accordance with the provisions of the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation. However, Taiwan, as the first colony seized by Japan after the Meiji Restoration, is regarded by Japan as a symbol of its emergence into the ranks of great powers. As Japan rapidly emerged from the ashes of defeat, some conservative politicians began to regard Taiwan as their "backyard" and deliberately tried to regain their hands in Taiwan. From the addition of the so-called "Far East Clause" to the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty in 1960, to the passage of the "Peripheral Affairs Act" in 1999, and the introduction of new security legal systems in 2015, all of them were in the name of maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait region and creating opportunities for armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait situation. Excuse.
This "Taiwan complex" reflects the Cold War mentality of Japanese conservative politicians based on geopolitical considerations. Some Japanese politicians have long advocated that Taiwan is Japan's "lifeline." Taiwan is located at the center of the first island chain and the maritime chokepoint of the Western Pacific. More than 80% of Japan's oil imports from the Middle East and raw materials imported from Southeast Asia pass through the Taiwan Strait. In the view of conservative Japanese politicians who firmly believe in the law of the jungle of "the weak and the strong", Japan's strategic posture will seriously deteriorate after the first island chain is "broken".
This "Taiwan complex" also reflects the policy inertia formed by Japan's conservative politicians who have monopolized the political arena for a long time. In the past 20 years, 11 prime ministers have been born in Japanese politics. Among them, there are only four prime ministers from the Liberal Democratic Party's "Qinghe Research Association": Yoshiro Mori, Junichiro Koizumi, Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, but their cumulative time in power accounted for 82.4% . Except for Yasuo Fukuda, the other three people were keen to enhance substantive relations with Taiwan during their tenure. As the Liberal Democratic Party dominates Japan's political arena, its traditional factional coordination operation model has gradually failed. The pro-Taiwan "hawk" faction has expanded unprecedentedly without its natural enemies and has monopolized the power center for a long time, forming a A seriously distorted and unruly policy inertia. This has created a situation where a small number of conservative politicians can arbitrarily kidnap the Liberal Democratic Party and Japan's diplomacy on Taiwan-related issues.
There are three major considerations behind the wild words
What are the hidden purposes behind these remarks of Japanese politicians?
Abe and his followers have recently been openly provocative on the Taiwan issue. This is not a whim, but has many deep-seated considerations, which can be summarized as: handing out a "letter of submission", showing "rhythm" and catching "eyeballs".
Submitting a "certificate of surrender" means showing loyalty to the United States and closely cooperating with the Biden administration's new round of "Taiwan card" offensive against China. In the nearly one year since Biden took office, his approval rating has plummeted due to his lack of success in controlling the epidemic and revitalizing the economy.The only thing that can build consensus between the two parties is to position China as a strategic competitor and constantly step over the line and beat China. While having a video conversation with Chinese leaders, Biden sent warships to patrol the Taiwan Strait, stepped up arms sales to Taiwan, sent members of Congress and senior officials to visit Taiwan, and launched a new round of "Taiwan Card" offensive. In view of the fact that the United States completely left its allies aside when it withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, Abe deliberately added that "there is something wrong in Taiwan" which is equivalent to "there is something wrong with the Japan-US alliance". It is obvious that he also considered dragging the United States into the water.
Caption: Fumio Kishida.
with "rhythm" is to exaggerate the tension in the Taiwan Strait and push the Kishida cabinet to amend the constitution and expand the military, "going all the way to darkness." Amending the constitution and expanding the military has always been the long-cherished wish of Japanese conservative politicians trying to get rid of the post-war system. Prior to this, Abe served as prime minister for 8 years after his comeback and made great efforts in amending the constitution and expanding the military. After this election, the forces with a positive attitude toward constitutional amendment once again exceeded the "threshold" of two-thirds of the total number of members of the House of Representatives. In addition, Yoshihide Suga passed the revised "National Voting Law" during his term, and Fumio Kishida increased defense expenses beyond the 1% GDP ceiling for the first time after taking office. This has once again prompted Abe and others to have the ambition to amend the constitution and expand the military. Abe's move is nothing more than inducing and amplifying the Japanese people's sense of crisis and clearing the way for constitutional amendments and military expansion. Of course, doing so also constrained Fumio Kishida’s line toward China during his tenure.
To capture "eyeballs" is to create hot spots of public opinion, increase media exposure for Abe himself, and expand political influence. It has been one year and three months since Abe stepped down as prime minister. He has been trying to play the role of "kingmaker" in Japanese politics. However, several things that happened recently made him uneasy: First, in this election, Abe received more than 20,000 fewer votes in Yamaguchi Prefecture’s 4th constituency than four years ago, with a vote rate of only 69.7%. Not only did he compete with Shigeru Ishiba The 84.1% of the Prime Minister and the 79.3% of Taro Kono are far behind. Even among the Liberal Democratic Party members elected in Yamaguchi Prefecture, they are at the bottom. The halo of the "longest-serving prime minister" is gradually dimming; secondly, Kishida Fumio did not fully adhere to Abe's personnel arrangements after the election. With his intentions, and getting closer to Taro Aso and Toshimitsu Motegi, there are three factions joining forces to confront Abe; third, although Abe has once again become the leader of the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, many backbones in the faction are hostile to this "political scandal" The president of "The Cross" was not convinced. Abe's anxiety and sense of loss are increasing day by day, which is probably the direct cause of his "nonsense".
The diplomatic imbalance will be difficult to improve in the short term
The Beijing Winter Olympics will be held soon. Can the Kishida government correct the diplomatic imbalance and properly handle relations with China?
Prime Minister Kishida delivered a policy speech at the provisional Diet on December 6. Beforehand, the Ministry of Defense and the Prime Minister's Office had repeatedly discussed the relevant wording. Nobuo Kishi insisted on adding the phrase "maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait" to his policy speech, emphasizing that it must be consistent with the joint statement issued after the meeting between Yoshihide Suga and Biden in April this year.
However, Kishida did not adopt Nobuo Kishi’s opinion in the end. Japanese media speculated that this move was obviously his attempt to distance himself from Abe and others on Taiwan-related issues.
It is understood that many people in Japan hope that the Kishida government can bring Sino-Japanese relations back to normal track. Kishida is the fifth prime minister from the "Hiroike Kai", a group known for its emphasis on the economy and Asia. Kishida himself has served as foreign minister for a long time and understands the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue and its importance to maintaining the overall relationship between China and Japan. During his telephone conversation with President Xi Jinping, he said that China and Japan should work together to build a constructive and stable Sino-Japanese relationship that meets the requirements of the new era. His appointment of Lin Fangzheng, known as the "China-knowledge faction", as foreign minister also sent a positive signal. The Japanese Olympic Committee has decided to send the largest delegation to the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022. This is likely to be an important opportunity for a turnaround in Sino-Japanese relations.
At present, there are three main driving factors in Japan that are conducive to Kishida’s adjustment of diplomatic layout: First, although the Japanese people’s closeness to China is still hovering at a low level, more than 50% of the respondents believe that Sino-Japanese relations are very important and do not want to We see that bilateral relations continue to deteriorate; secondly, Japan's dependence on the Chinese market has increased significantly after the epidemic. Japan's foreign trade overall shrank in 2020, with only trade with China increasing by 0.8%; from January to June 2021, Sino-Japanese bilateral trade increased by 23.7% year-on-year. The rate of return of Japanese companies in China is about twice the world average. The economic community does not want to lose the Chinese market due to the bad relations between the two countries. Third, Prime Minister Kishida flaunts the New Economic Deal and advocates the "new Japanese capitalism". The core concept is to build a virtuous cycle of economic growth and distribution, and to achieve economic growth, we need help from China.
However, Kishida’s adjustment of relations with China is still restricted by various internal and external negative factors. First, the overall background of the Sino-US game has not fundamentally changed. Currently, the Japanese government is busy with preparations for Kishida’s visit to the United States within this year, and it may be difficult to refuse the U.S. request to force Japan to jointly implement a strategy to contain China. Secondly, although Kishida’s management and control capabilities have improved, due to Abe’s confidants occupying the LDP and cabinet A series of key departments are more difficult to manage. In 2022, the Japanese government will introduce a new version of the National Security Strategy and the Economic Security Law. It will be difficult for Kishida to prevent conservative politicians from continuing to disrupt Sino-Japanese relations; in addition, the public opinion environment with rising anti-China sentiment in Japan has also caused Kishida to It is difficult to gain sufficient public support in promoting diplomacy with China.
Therefore, Japan's current diplomatic imbalance may continue for some time.
Author: Wu Jinan, honorary president of the Shanghai Japan Society and researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies
