A piece of news said that the bailout funds had been studied and withdrawn, which shocked the market, and instantly it plummeted again. Then the China Securities Regulatory Commission quickly refuted the rumors. With the efforts of PetroChina, the stock market was finally brought back. Some people say that neither the bull market nor the bear market is right now. This is Lin's sister market, a fragile market that cannot withstand the twists and turns at all. Anyone who says "withdraw" will die immediately. With such a bad temper, you still have to coax me to play.
In fact, there is really no need to study the matter of people withdrawing, because it has been booked before. Although there are three methods provided in the rumors, they are basically unreliable. The first one is whoever buys the stock will get it, and the second one is, The stocks should be kept in securities companies and used for securities lending business in the future. The third method is to turn these stocks into ETFs, which are easy to distribute. Since there is a layer between them and stocks, it is less likely to cause market sensitivity. A careful study will reveal that at that time, 21 securities firms spent 128 billion yuan to buy not stocks at all, but ETFs. This was evidenced by the announcement on the official website of the Securities Association at that time, so the first and second options were simply nonsense. It doesn't exist at all, so even if they withdraw, the only possibility is to sell the ETF. But selling now is clearly not the time.
The reason why I say this is because the bigger main force is still fighting fiercely inside. According to news on July 13, 1.3 trillion yuan in funds of China Securities Finance Corporation has been secured, of which 186 billion yuan is from China Merchants Bank, nearly 170 billion yuan from Agricultural Bank of China, and nearly 170 billion yuan from Bank of China. , Industrial and Commercial Bank of China nearly 150 billion yuan, Bank of Communications 130 billion yuan, Minsheng Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Construction Bank nearly 100 billion yuan, etc. It is said that there are still several trillions in the future, and this money should be invested in the stock market to stabilize the market. To stabilize the market, but compared to the stock market with a circulating market capitalization of 43 trillion, this amount of money is less than one-tenth, so it is not enough no matter how you look at it. To be honest, the Securities Finance Company is not sure whether it can stabilize the stock market at 4,000 points, and it still feels that there is little money in its pocket. You must know that the money of securities companies comes from banks, and bank money also has costs. The banks spent so much money to support the securities companies to rescue the market. They have only one purpose. They hope to use the collective efforts of everyone to maintain the market within a stable range and then escape quickly. Saving banks is also the first priority and goal of maintaining financial stability this time. Therefore, it is simply impossible to let the banks take out the money and let the securities firms run away first. The logic of the withdrawal of the bailout funds must be like this. The banks will withdraw first, then the national team will withdraw, and the securities firms will cover it. Retail investors were left standing guard. As for leaving stocks to brokers, brokers are not stupid. Take the stocks at such a high price and keep them for others to use for securities lending? How can it be?
Some people cited the examples of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to illustrate that it will take at least a few years before the bailout funds are withdrawn, so I tell everyone that you can enter the market with peace of mind. For example, during the financial crisis in the United States in 2007, the Federal Reserve became the last resort. In 2008, it joined forces with 10 major banks to establish a US$70 billion stabilization fund, and also invested in the purchase of Fannie and Freddie Securities. It was not fully released until 2012, and it also made a profit of 250 million. Billion US dollars, Japan's stock market crash in 1962, the stabilization fund (mutual fund) was only established in 1964, and the work was basically completed in 1969. Looking at Taiwan, my country, the 1997 Asian crisis, the National Security Fund was only established in 2000, and almost all were trapped in 2001. It wasn't until 2007 that we were able to get out of the next wave of market conditions, and we basically didn't make much money. Hong Kong, our country, suffered a financial crisis in 1997 and was beaten hard by George Soros. The Hang Seng Index dropped from 16,000 points by 10,000 points. Only then did Hong Kong use HK$118.1 billion to take over the market. It was not until 2002 that the Hang Seng Index had risen back. Arrived at 18,000 points. Interestingly, as soon as he came out, the Hang Seng Index fell back to more than 8,000 points, which is equivalent to another 10,000 points gone.
So in summary, the experience given to us by various countries is that after the stock market plummets, stabilization funds can enter the market, and they really have to go in to buy the bottom. It often takes 4-7 years to get out of trouble. But there are also differences. The first is that our Securities Finance Company entered the market too early, which is equivalent to entering the market at just a 20% discount. It is difficult to say that this is a bottom, and it is difficult to say what the value of this local market is. Look at the banks Just look at stocks and PetroChina. Securities and Finance companies will definitely not buy small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, large-cap blue-chip stocks are overvalued, which has caused great trouble to fund operations.In addition, other people's stock markets are generally bullish, with long bulls and short bears, so the sharp decline will basically stabilize after a delay. However, our stock market happens to be bullish, short, and bearish. In the context of the sharp decline in international oil prices, in the international macroeconomic situation In a slowing environment, 13 yuan more to eat so much PetroChina, I really don't know how to solve the problem in the year of the monkey and the horse in the horse. Of course, there is another possibility. As I said before, he may not want to make money at all. The purpose of coming in is to bring some popularity and then take out the bank as much as possible. Maintain financial stability, and if you lose money, you will lose money.
The only thing that is certain at present is that the bailout funds will definitely withdraw, but how to withdraw? He will definitely exit quietly. When you see that PetroChina stopped rising and started to fall in volume, it basically means that the national team has moved to the sidelines.
