1. Wells Fargo analysts said that inflation will not prevent the Federal Reserve from further easing monetary policy in the coming months because the core producer price index favored by the Fed has slowed sharply.

[News]

1. Wells Fargo analysts said that inflation will not prevent the Federal Reserve from further easing monetary policy in the coming months because the core producer price index favored by the Fed has slowed sharply. Due to rising energy costs, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, and the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is weakening. Exit and entry costs show no sign of a reversal in this trend, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy again soon. Surging energy prices pushed U.S. PPI up 0.2% in July, but the inflation rate trend remained moderate. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%, while services prices fell for the first time since January. Prices in services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing fell 0.3%. The input costs of domestic production show no signs of upward breakthrough. Except for energy, inputs in intermediate processing products and services all declined in July. This should help prevent runaway consumer inflation

2. TD Securities: Any signal about the possibility of increased quantitative easing may add downward pressure on the euro

3. U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Friday (August 9) The report released shows that as of the week from July 31 to August 6: Speculators’ net short positions on the euro decreased by 9,973 contracts to 44,010 contracts, indicating that investors’ willingness to bet on the euro has cooled.

4. As of the trading day of August 9, the trading volume of the euro was 128,223 lots, a decrease of 58,162 lots from the previous trading day; the open interest was 517,572 lots, a decrease of 2,827 lots from the previous trading day; the trading volume of the pound was 100,352 lots, a decrease of 58,162 lots from the previous trading day. The previous trading day increased by 8,495 lots; open positions were 281,829 lots, a decrease of 3,249 lots from the previous trading day; Japanese yen trading volume was 129,182 lots, a decrease of 7,138 lots from the previous trading day; open positions were 150,047 lots, an increase from the previous trading day. An increase of 968 hands in one trading day

5. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ discussed the outlook for the euro against the U.S. dollar during the day. Its view on the currency pair next week has changed to a more neutral strategy, and it is expected to fluctuate in the 1.0501-1.1350 range. Analysts pointed out that the European Bank's possible restart of quantitative easing, interest rate cuts of up to 25 points at the September meeting, and the implementation of a tiered reserve system should all limit the euro from getting stronger, while concerns and uncertainties about the risk of a no-deal Brexit by the end of October The build-up of panic will also further put pressure on the euro. These factors will allow the US dollar to receive further support, thereby maintaining a bearish view of the EURUSD. For next week, as there are no obvious risk events yet, the exchange rate is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the impact of economic data. While maintaining a bearish outlook on the whole, it is believed that it will slightly shift to a more neutral stance before sensitive sentiments strike.

[Euro exchange rate quotation]

1. The latest euro exchange rate quotation

is as of press time, and in Nigeria, 1 euro is exchanged for 1.1207 US dollars, 1 euro is exchanged for 1.7327 New Zealand dollars, 1 euro is exchanged for 0.9310 pounds, 1 euro is exchanged for 118.1400 yen, and 1 euro is exchanged 1.0897 Swiss francs, 1 euro for 1.6519 Australian dollars, 1 euro for 1.4817 Canadian dollars, 1 euro for RMB 7.9175 yuan, 1 euro for 6.1736 Turkish lira .

2. ICBC foreign exchange quotation

=+=0=+= [Euro exchange rate trend]

Euro against the US dollar weekly chart

Euro against the US dollar: On the weekly chart, last week (8.5-8.9) the euro against the US dollar stopped falling and rebounded to close. A barefoot positive line, the intraday highest point was 1.1250, and closed at 1.1200, an increase of 0.83% during the week. Looking at the K-line trend, the EURUSD failed to continue to break below the 1.1027 first-line support last week and rebounded. In the short term, Europe and the United States may continue to rebound to challenge the 1.1412 first-line pressure. From the perspective of the long-short power game, in the 30-day band market, market shorts dominate, and there may still be room for downside in Europe and the United States in the short term; in the long term, market shorts dominate, and Europe and the United States are likely to continue the main downward trend. Looking at the moving average trend, MA5 and MA10 have formed dead crosses and increased volume, and the short-term market is mainly bearish; MACD yellow and white lines form golden crosses below the 0 axis, the green column turns red, and the trends of the two lines are bonded. Taken together, the EURUSD is expected to continue its rebound trend in the short term, with the top line focusing on 1.1412. In the long term, Europe and the United States are likely to continue the main downward trend. If Europe and the United States break through the upper pressure, there is a high probability that the market outlook will continue upward to challenge the first-line pressure of 1.1570; if they cannot break through, there is a high probability that Europe and the United States will pull back to test the first-line support of 1.1027 in the short term.

Weekly Chart of Euro vs. Pound

Euro vs. Pound: On the weekly chart, the Euro Pound continued its gains last week (8.5-8.9), hitting an intraday high of 0.9317 and closing at 0.9311, a week-on-week increase of 1.93%. From the perspective of the long-short power game, the euro pound has risen significantly in the past two weeks, and the market bulls have dominated the market. In the short term, the euro pound is expected to still have room to rise. In the long term, bulls dominate the market, and the euro pound is likely to continue its main upward trend. Looking at the moving average trend, MA5 and MA10 form a golden cross with heavy volume, and the short-term market is mainly bullish; the MACD yellow and white lines form a golden cross above the 0 axis with heavy volume, and the red column expands. Taken together, there is a high probability that the euro will continue to rise against the pound in the short term, and the upper line will focus on the 0.9415 first-line pressure. In terms of the general trend, the euro pound is likely to continue its main upward trend. If the Euro Pound breaks through the upper pressure, it is likely to continue to rise in the market outlook and challenge the first-line pressure of 0.9487; if it cannot break through, the Euro Pound is likely to pull back in the short term to test the first-line support of 0.8891.

Euro against RMB weekly chart

Euro against RMB: On the weekly chart, last week (8.5-8.9) the Euro opened higher against the RMB, hitting an intraday high of 7.9385 and closing at 7.9213, a week-on-week increase of 2.77%. Judging from the K-line shape, the market has closed a short double-yang line in the past two weeks. At present, the bullish power in the market clearly has the advantage, and the probability of the euro against the renminbi continuing to rise in the short term is relatively high. From the perspective of the long-short power game, in the 75-day band market, the market bulls dominated the market, and the euro against the renminbi has a high probability of continuing the main upward trend. Looking at the moving average trend, MA5 and MA10 form a golden cross, and the short-term market is mainly bullish; the MACD yellow and white lines form a golden cross above the 0 axis to increase volume, and the red column expands. Taken together, there is a high probability that the EURUSD will continue its upward trend in the short term, and attention will be paid to the first-line pressure of 7.9936 above. In terms of the general trend, the euro against the yuan is likely to continue the main upward trend. If the euro against the yuan breaks through the upper pressure, it is likely to continue upward to challenge the first-line pressure of 8.1061 in the market outlook; if it cannot break through, the market trend is likely to pull back in the short term to test the first-line support of 7.7585.

[The above opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. 】

Source: Zhongyi Finance Network

Follow Tonghuashun Finance WeChat official account (ths518) to get more financial information