The latest " World Economic Outlook Report " of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.6% in 2022, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the January forecast. The picture shows Pierre-Olivier Goulincha, Economic Advisor and Director of the Research Department of the IMF, attending an online press conference in Washington, USA. Xinhua News Agency
Reporter | Ji Xiaoli
Recently, inflation has become the primary challenge faced by many countries and economies, and austerity measures to deal with inflation may lead to a global economic recession. Many countries, regions and international organizations were not optimistic about the prospects for world economic development. By the middle of the year, they had once again lowered their forecasts.
Many countries and regions have revealed concerns about economic recession.
Since April this year, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) in the United States has risen across the board. The CPI has increased by more than 8% year-on-year for many consecutive months, setting a new high in decades. The Federal Reserve successively raised interest rates in March, May, and June, and said it will continue to raise interest rates in July and September. It is still unknown whether inflation can be controlled. As the trade deficit intensifies, prices in the United States have risen across the board and consumers' spending power has declined.
The U.S. stock market performed bleakly in the first half of this year, with the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index falling into bear markets on March 7 and June 13 respectively. Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America, said that due to weak consumer data in May, the institution has lowered its U.S. second-quarter economic forecast from the previous quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.5% to flat quarter-on-quarter.
A report released by GEFK, a German market research organization, on June 28 showed that the leading index of German consumer confidence in July was -27.4 points, a decrease of 1.2 points from the previous month and the lowest value since 1991.
The European Central Bank predicts that the euro area economy will grow by 2.8% in 2022 and 2.1% in both 2023 and 2024. If there are serious disruptions in energy supply and further surges in prices, the euro area economy is expected to grow by only 1.3% in 2022 and shrink by 1.7% in 2023.
The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research released a report on June 21 saying that due to the continued surge in inflation, the agency has significantly lowered its Swedish economic growth forecast for this year and next to 1.9% and 1.2%. Finland’s Ministry of Finance recently stated that the country’s economic growth is slowing, inflation has increased beyond expectations, and household financial prospects have deteriorated. Economic growth is expected to slow to 1.4% this year from 3.5% in 2021.
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Policy Support Group released a report some time ago saying that the region's economic growth in 2022 will slow down to 3.2% from 5.9% in 2021. The average inflation rate of the 321 economies in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation has increased from 1.5 in 2020. % increased to 3% in 2021.
html Since 16 months, Brazil , Mexico , Argentina and other Latin American countries have significantly raised interest rates to cope with the continued growth of imported inflation pressure. Mexican economist Mario Correa said that if the U.S. economic growth reaches zero, the Mexican economy will decline by 1% to 2%. The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean previously predicted that the region's economy would grow by only 1.8% in 2022.Many international organizations have lowered their forecasts for world economic growth this year.
The World Bank recently lowered its forecast for global GDP growth rate this year from 4.1% in January to 2.9%. It is expected that growth will further slow down to 2.2% in 2023. It is believed that The risk of global stagflation is increasing. This is the second time this year that the World Bank has lowered its full-year economic growth forecast. The World Bank believes that "the negative spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be enough to offset the near-term boosting effect of rising energy prices on some commodity exporters."
The United Nations recently released the "World Economic Situation and Prospects for Mid-2022" ” pointed out that the global economy, which is still recovering from the epidemic, may be on the verge of a new crisis. Geopolitical and economic uncertainty has dampened business confidence and investment, further weakening the short-term economic outlook. Against this background, the United Nations predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2022 will be only 3.1%, which is 0.9 percentage points lower than the 4.0% growth rate released in January 2022.
The "World Economic Outlook" report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 3.6%, which is a decrease of 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the January forecast.IMF President Georgieva said on June 24 that the path for the U.S. economy to avoid recession is narrowing, and the U.S. economy faces serious downside risks this year and next. The IMF lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast this year to 2.9% from 3.7% in April, and its 2023 growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.7%.
OECD (OECD) pointed out in the latest issue of "Economic Outlook" on June 8 that although the global economy may be able to avoid the 1970s-style stagflation, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made the growth prospects even bleaker. . The OECD predicts that the global economy will grow by only 3% in 2022, down from the 4.5% it forecast in December 2021. Inflation among the 38 OECD member countries will approach 9%, almost double previous forecasts. Many Baltic countries are even worse off and will face double-digit inflation rates. The overall inflation rate among OECD member countries may reach 8.5% in 2022.
World Bank: The inevitable economic recession requires government relief for vulnerable groups
Recently, the "Global Economic Prospects" report released by the World Bank stated that wars and epidemics have exacerbated the slowdown of the global economy, and the global economy is entering a "long period of weak growth, "A period of high inflation", the economic growth rate from 2023 to 2024 will also remain at a low level. Affected by the epidemic and war, the per capita income of developing economies in 2022 will be nearly 5% lower than before the outbreak.
The war caused prices of various energy-related commodities to soar. Higher energy prices will reduce real incomes, raise production costs, tighten financial conditions, and constrain macroeconomic policies, especially in energy-importing countries. Emerging and developing economies are expected to be hit even harder. As debt in these economies rises to multi-decade highs, rising global borrowing costs and depreciating exchange rates could trigger a financial crisis like the one in the early 1980s. Among the 75 poorest countries in the world, about 60% are in or facing debt crises, and the debt crisis is spreading to middle-income countries. In addition, slowing economic growth will exacerbate poverty, famine and security problems in poor countries. The World Bank predicts that compared with before the epidemic, there will be more than 75 million more people facing extreme poverty around the world.
The World Bank report believes that by 2030, the average level of global economic growth will be lower than that of the previous decade. The report predicts that global economic growth will decline by 2.7% between 2021 and 2024, more than twice the decline in growth rate between 1976 and 1979. However, compared with 40 years ago, the global economy and the ability of national governments to respond to economic challenges have strengthened. The U.S. dollar is currently strong and the balance sheets of most financial institutions are generally strong; although energy prices have jumped, they have not risen as much as they did in the 1970s. The
report also pointed out that how to avoid economic disorder while suppressing inflation is currently a major problem. In the future, global economies may need to implement tighter than expected tightening policies again to help inflation return to target levels. At the same time, tightening policies may also trigger a hard landing for the economy. The World Bank said policymakers must act quickly to mitigate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, help countries buy food and fuel, accelerate promised debt relief, and avoid policies such as price controls and export bans.
"The Russia-Ukraine conflict, supply chain disruptions and the risk of stagflation are hitting economic growth. For many countries, economic recession will be inevitable." World Bank President David Malpass said, "Encourage production and avoid trade restrictions "It is imperative that fiscal, monetary, climate and debt policies change to address capital misallocation and inequality," he said. , there are not many signs of optimism on this front yet.”
The World Bank report emphasized that governments will need to redefine spending amid the challenging backdrop of rising inflation, slowing growth, tighter financial conditions and limited fiscal policy space. Prioritization to provide targeted relief to vulnerable groups.
World Economic Forum: The world is facing a quadruple crisis of inflation, energy, food and climate change
The recently released "Chief Economist Outlook" by the World Economic Forum stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the mutated new coronavirusOmicron strain and related supply shocks are affecting inflation expectations. Many political figures and economists attending this year's World Economic Forum Annual Meeting warned that due to factors such as geopolitics and the epidemic, global economic activities will decrease in 2022, inflation will rise, real wages will decline, and food insecurity will intensify.
IMF President Georgieva said at the forum that "2022 will be a difficult year." The IMF has lowered its growth forecast for 143 economies this year, and the total economic output of these economies accounts for 86% of the global economic total. %.
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said at the forum that Europe is plagued by supply chain problems and energy crises, and there is a high probability that it will suffer an economic recession. Fraser believes that people in different regions have different feelings about the slowdown in economic growth. The food crisis will become the most concerning issue for people in Africa, while in Asia and the Middle East, the economies of some countries have begun to recover from the impact of the epidemic. recover.
German Deputy Prime Minister Robert Habeck said at the forum that the world is currently facing four intertwined crises: inflation, energy, food, and climate change. If you focus on just one of the crises, you won't be able to solve the problem. "But if these problems are not resolved, I am really worried that we will fall into a global economic recession, which will have a huge impact on global stability." He said.
