Original title: Jing Data | The national epidemic curve can speak, and 4 points can be read out
Source | Jingbao APP
Special author: Li Bo; Reporter: Wang Biao
Numbers can speak, and we can read out the anti-epidemic information from the epidemic curve At the dawn of victory in the war, China will surely win!
The COVID-19 epidemic has affected people's hearts, and the rolling release of numbers is overwhelming. How should we clearly see the essence through numbers?
As of 24:00 on January 31, a total of 11,791 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia have been reported across the country, surpassing the 10,000 mark on the last day of January. At this point, Jingbao APP has sorted out the epidemic figures across the country and found that the complex digital curve can speak for itself (all the data in this article are released by the National Health Commission):
●1. The number of confirmed cases is increasing by the thousands every day, and we still need to be highly vigilant
At first glance, the trend is still not optimistic. On the 31st, there were 2,102 new confirmed cases per day. The number of confirmed cases and new numbers across the country are still reaching new highs. Judging from the numerical curve, the trumpet is getting wider and wider, and the speed of infection is still accelerating.
The situation in Shenzhen is similar. The trend line of confirmed cases is very steep. Shenzhen even jumped higher on January 31, with an increase of 60 confirmed cases every day. Therefore, the people of Shenzhen need to be highly vigilant and protect themselves.
●2. Thanks to the Wuhan lockdown, the epidemic situation outside Hubei is still good.
The growth weight of the epidemic is in the core area (Hubei). At the same time, the serious consequences of the epidemic are also concentrated in the core area - Hubei. Looking at the death data, Hubei Province accounts for 96.1% of the country, with absolute weight (the red line climbs almost close to the blue line), and it is getting steeper and faster. The proportion of peripheral areas (non-Hubei) is very small, only 3.9% (the green line is far away from the red and blue lines), and the growth rate is slow and steady, with an average increase of less than one person per day.
Looking at the mortality rate, it is 2.20% nationwide, 3.48% in Hubei, and 0.22% outside Hubei Province. Fortunately, since January 26, the mortality curve has turned downward.
The mortality rate in Hubei Province is higher than that of the whole country, and the mortality rate outside the province is much lower than that of the whole country. In other words, the overall epidemic is concentrated in the core area (Hubei), and the epidemic in peripheral areas has not broken out rapidly for the time being, and the control is still good.
●3. There is a gratifying light, and the cure line once again exceeds the death line and now has a golden cross.
The most gratifying thing is that on January 31, 72 new people were cured and 62 people died. The number of single-day recoveries has increased again in the past week. Exceeding the death line forms a precious golden cross. Looking at the trend line of
, the survival line has been tenaciously chasing the death line. In the early stage, there was an entanglement on January 24, and it was pulled away in the middle. It has been exerting force in the past two days and has great potential to surpass it.
These two lines can be seen as a fierce battle between the angel in white (red line) and the death of the epidemic (blue line). Our medical staff are snatching more and more lives from the hands of death. The trend of the next two lines of
deserves close attention. I hope that the survival line will continue to surpass the death line tomorrow, come on!
●4. There are already provinces with negative growth, and we hope more places will get out of the "Hunan Curve"
Putting the curves of each province together, you can find that Hunan Province, which currently ranks fifth in the number of cases, is completely different.
In the top 12 provinces with the number of cases in the country, the trend of the curve of confirmed cases has begun to change. The number of confirmed cases in Hunan Province has dropped significantly, and because the number of cured people exceeds the number of confirmed cases, negative growth has occurred for the first time, and the curve has even turned downward, giving people a Great confidence and encouragement. We also hope that more and more provinces will start to get out of the "Hunan Curve".
