For Boeing, "a good future" may be the thing it is most looking forward to right now - in October 2018, when the Boeing 737 MAX of Indonesia Lion Air crashed, no one would have expected it, and then there were a series of crashes. The 737 MAX has been grounded by many countries, the new crown epidemic has spread around the world, and the 777X aircraft nodes have been continuously delayed...
Even so, it is difficult to conclude that Boeing has survived the "darkest moment" because at the beginning of 2021, Boeing's troubles There is still no end -
Everything will not get better "automatically" in 2021
html On February 15, Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa Group, said at the London School of Economics Germany seminar, Lufthansa is negotiating with Boeing to replace orders for large aircraft such as the 777X with other smaller aircraft.
Lufthansa is one of the 777X's launch customers and originally ordered 20 Boeing 777X. However, as the civil aviation market continues to shrink and the 777X delivery date continues to be postponed, more customers are considering switching or canceling orders. As usual, in the event of delayed delivery, the customer has the right to cancel or switch the contract model.
Because of this, some industry experts predict that Boeing may lose more than one-third of its 777X orders in the future (as of January 2021, Boeing has received a total of 309 orders for the 777X, of which 191 are confirmed orders).
In addition to problems with the research and development model, there are also problems with Boeing aircraft in operation -
On February 20, a United Airlines Boeing 777-200 passenger plane (flight number UA328) departed from Colorado at noon on the 20th local time. A serious accident occurred shortly after takeoff at Denver International Airport in the capital: the plane's right engine casing detached, exploded and caught fire. Fortunately, the emergency landing was successful and there were no casualties on board. After
, United Airlines grounded 24 777 aircraft equipped with PW4077 engines. The FAA also issued an emergency airworthiness directive requiring all 777 series aircraft equipped with Pratt & Whitney PW4000 series engines to undergo airworthiness inspections. The Civil Aviation Administration of Japan, Organizations and airlines such as Korean Air have also grounded the same model.
Today, Boeing issued a statement recommending that airlines suspend operations of Boeing 777-200 aircraft equipped with PW4000 series engines.
Under the huge pressure of cash flow, Boeing on the one hand carried out "desperate survival" and continued to sell various assets to obtain cash flow; on the other hand, it began to launch new commercial aircraft models that can adapt to the new needs of the civil aviation market -
Once Missed opportunities for the development of "midsize aircraft"
In January 2021, Boeing CEO David Calhoun (David Calhoun) said that the New Midsize Aircraft (NMA) project was being reconsidered.
According to Boeing's vision, this NMA has a passenger capacity of 250-274 people and will directly benchmark the Airbus A321XLR aircraft. Previously, because the delivery node of Boeing 737 MAX10 was in 2023, this resulted in the A321XLR having no aircraft of the same seat class to compete with it for many years.
In fact, Boeing's idea of a "new midsize aircraft" has been around for many years. As early as the 2017 Paris Air Show , Boeing announced for the first time the concept drawing and development schedule of its new medium-sized aircraft.
At the time, Boeing said multiple airlines had expressed a strong need for MOM (mid-market) aircraft like the new midsize aircraft. Therefore, after conducting a market survey on 36 airlines, Boeing concluded: "The potential market demand for new medium-sized aircraft is 4,000-5,000 aircraft."
Boeing's new medium-sized aircraft concept was originally created to make up for the suspension of Boeing 757 , a market gap for 220 to 270-seat aircraft in the Boeing and Airbus product lines. The seat class of this aircraft is roughly between the largest narrow-body aircraft (such as Boeing 737MAX and Airbus A321neo) and the smallest wide-body aircraft (such as Boeing 787 and Airbus A330-800 aircraft), with a range of approximately 9,300 kilometers.
At the same time, according to the expectations of airlines, Boeing Company also defined the new medium-sized aircraft as "a new model that combines the economy of a single-aisle aircraft with the comfort of a dual-aisle aircraft." In other words, the new medium-sized aircraft will It achieves the passenger capacity and range that only dual-aisle aircraft can achieve in terms of single-aisle economy.
According to the original plan, Boeing's new medium-sized aircraft will start design in 2020, be delivered to customers and put into commercial operation in 2025.
But the plan cannot keep up with the changes. After the 737 MAX series was grounded globally in 2019, Boeing was struggling to deal with various matters in operation and research and development. Compared with opening up the future, "survival" is obviously more urgent: Foreign Affairs Bureau recently According to media reports, employees in Boeing’s commercial aircraft headquarters building were notified to tidy up their workstations. The industry speculated that Boeing is considering selling its commercial aircraft headquarters building to supplement cash flow...
Under such circumstances, it is also true that the NMA R&D plan has been ignored and delayed. Within common sense.
Challenge from Airbus A321XLR
In the new medium-sized aircraft market, Airbus is obviously more prepared than Boeing.
At the 2019 Paris Air Show, Airbus announced the launch of the ultra-long-range A321XLR project, which has a maximum range of 8,700 kilometers, 15% more than the long-range A321LR, and is expected to be put into operation in 2023.
At this time, Boeing is busy dealing with a series of events caused by the 737 MAX crash. No one thought that Airbus’ A321XLR would fill the market gap between Boeing’s 737 (narrow body) and 787 (wide body). At that Paris Air Show, Airbus received a total of 243 A321XLR orders, 50 of which were from Boeing's loyal customers- American Airlines .
A321XLR can fly directly from Beijing to London, Perth, Adelaide, and Vancouver (calculated based on great circle route distance)
The Airbus A321XLR has a range of 8,700 kilometers, which can be compared with wide-body passenger aircraft and fly long-distance intercontinental routes. For example, the A321XLR aircraft can Direct flights from Beijing to London, Perth, Adelaide, Vancouver and other places.
In addition, Airbus claims that the single-seat fuel consumption of the A321XLR is 30% lower than Boeing 757-200. The range and seat class are greater, so the new A321XLR is an ideal choice to replace the 757 aircraft.
It has to be said that the birth of Airbus A321XLR conforms to the impact of the new crown epidemic-at present, narrow-body long-range passenger aircraft are gaining more and more favor in the market. Against this background, on February 3, 2021, Airbus announced the opening of a new processing parts supply chain and pilot production line for the first A321XLR in Hamburg, Germany. This pilot production line will gradually accelerate the production of the new rear fuselage of the A321XLR starting next year. Ensure the smooth delivery of the A321XLR in 2023.
A breather, new opportunities bring the dawn?
In a sense, the structural changes in global civil aviation market demand during the epidemic have given narrow-body long-range aircraft opportunities to develop. But for the commercial aircraft market, which requires huge amounts of capital and a long R&D and production cycle, such opportunities are fleeting.
Independent aviation consultancy IBA pointed out: "If Boeing cannot bring NMA to the market in 2026, it will miss the best opportunity to replace the Boeing 757 and 767. Therefore, Boeing must make a decision quickly, otherwise it may repeat the same mistake .”
At present, although the 737 MAX is steadily returning to flight, Boeing is not so fast in launching NMA. While revealing its restart of the NMA project, David Calhoun cautiously stated that Boeing is negotiating with suppliers and forming a research team, but there is currently no intention to issue further notices. (Copywriter: Yu Nan, Zhong Fei)
