1, Yangtze River spot copper price trends and analysis this week
html In the week of June 17, domestic spot copper prices showed a steady downward trend. The average price of domestic spot copper #1 was 71,402 yuan/ton, with an average daily decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the average price of the previous week was 71,402 yuan/ton. The price was 73,132 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, the average price dropped by 1,712 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.34%. The outlook for the global economy is bleak, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the stock market has repeatedly plummeted and is approaching a bear market, and market sentiment has turned pessimistic again. Unstable market conditions have dragged down the trend of non-ferrous metals. Although there are favorable domestic policy incentives and demand has recovered month-on-month, downstream demand consumption is still insufficient. Coupled with the weakening of inventory support, the overall copper price is under a long-short game. The center of pressure on copper prices has shifted downward this week.
2. Domestic and foreign financial hot spots
Domestic aspects:
1, [The effect of widening credit appears! Financial data in May exceeded expectations] Recently, the official website of the central bank released the financial statistics report and social financing situation in May 2022. Data show that RMB loans increased by 1.89 trillion yuan in May, an increase of 392 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing scale was 2.79 trillion yuan, 839.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
2. [China’s multiple economic data stabilized and rebounded in May] The Bureau of Statistics pointed out that in May, my country’s economy gradually overcame the negative impact of the epidemic, with marginal improvements in major indicators, and the economy showed a recovery momentum. However, the international environment has become more complex and severe, and domestic economic recovery still faces many difficulties and challenges.
International:
1, [US PPI maintains double-digit percentage growth for five consecutive months] The ICE U.S. dollar index rose more than 0.1% intraday on Tuesday, once climbing to 105.48 during the day, the highest level since December 2002.
2, [ Fed meeting is about to market attitude changes] The US " Wall Street Journal " reported that the Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates to 75 basis points this Wednesday, which is higher than the expected 50 basis points, causing the US stock market to close. Lows were hit in the first half hour.
3. Copper market news of the week
1, [South American mining production hinders the supply of many copper mines and is tested again] On April 20, Minmetals Resources Co., Ltd. (MMG) announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that the company's Las Bambas copper mine Production will not be maintained due to local community members entering the mining area to protest. Since then, local protests have escalated. In early June, Peruvian police clashed with multiple communities at the mines, and the Las Bambas copper mine and Southern Copper Company's Los Chancas copper mine suspended production.
2, [ Ernst & Young : Peruvian mining investment will shrink by 15% in 2023] According to the BNAmericas website, Marcial Garcia, mining partner of Ernst & Young Peru Branch, predicts that although other countries are seizing on the rise in international metal prices There are opportunities to increase mining investment, but mining investment in Peru will fall by 0.8% this year and shrink by 15% in 2023.
3, [ Moody's Rating : Uncertainty in Chile's constitution may hit mining investment] Foreign media news on June 16: rating agency Moody's Rating said that if Chile's political uncertainty in the new constitution is not achieved Investment in Chile's mining industry may face a deadlock if it is resolved, reflecting industry concerns about the world's top copper-producing country.
4. Copper price outlook
The macroeconomic atmosphere is under great pressure, overseas contraction expectations remain unchanged, and many central banks are following the Fed's interest rate hikes. The market is increasingly concerned about the global economic recession, which has suppressed the trend of copper prices, but domestic stimulus policies have boosted it. market confidence. However, due to the influence of weak demand and bearish expectations, the price continued to fall below the level. In the short term, the short-term sentiment may be released, and the bullish sentiment will avoid chasing short positions. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate next week, and it is recommended to wait and see.
