We believe that on the 12th, the market saw a strong daily limit of BOE A with a trading volume of 6 billion. Superimposed on the Shanghai stock index, the volume reached the level of 150 billion, and the activity of conceptual themes has increased to a large extent. Therefore, for the market as a whole, the subject matter hype may resume its long-lost activity, and the overall money-making effect of the market is expected to increase rapidly.
We believe that in addition to the low-price cycle technology (such as BOE A on Tuesday) and the concept of intellectual property rights in trade negotiations that have been emphasized recently, also has two concepts of automotive power semiconductors and trade negotiations that are good for Made in China 2025, which are worthy of Investors continue to follow.
Why is it particularly emphasized at this time to broaden the breadth of subject observation?
Let me briefly talk about two points.
First, the strength of this round of rebound is likely to exceed market expectations. There should be a general rise (general rebound) during the climax period from the end of February to the beginning of March. Therefore, if the transaction amount rises (to more than 200 billion yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index), the theme will have a money-making effect will expand rapidly.
This round of market rebound has changed the downward trend from the beginning of 2018 to the beginning of 2019. From a rhythm perspective, if it can be called a rebound, it will touch the .382-.500 range, which means that the rebound target is at the 3,000-point mark.
Time-wise, it exists for at least a quarter. My colleagues have recently done a lot of analysis on the main contradictions in this internal reference and will not go into details here. From the perspective of mental inertia, due to the long period of early decline and the great destruction of confidence (the end of the bear market), it is understandable that the market generally lowers expectations at this time. Because of this, the rebound concept that this internal reference has mentioned many times recently has generally exceeded expectations.
Secondly, the two sessions are just around the corner, which is the climax period of theme exploration and warm-up. Adding the subsequent incident of Sino-US trade friction to drive , it is obvious that we need to start paying attention to the main theme mining work in 2019.
This internal reference also emphasized in the early stage that based on historical experience, the themes that the market pays attention to before and after the two sessions are often different, so preparations for the overall layout of this year's themes will begin in the near future, although the preparation information related to the two sessions will not start to be released until the end of February.
Why Consider Tracking Diodes and Made in China 2025?
Power diode aspect.
First of all, the concept of new energy vehicles continues to be popular recently, and power semiconductors are an important part of new energy vehicles. When speculating on new energy vehicles, there is no difference between speculating on batteries and not on controls ( BYD ) + electronic devices, which are different from traditional fuel vehicle components.
At present, the demand for electric vehicles and automotive electronics has increased significantly. For example, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) integrate blind spot detection (BSM), lane departure warning (LDWS), parking assistance and other devices. The usage of diodes is even higher than ever before. As much as 10 times more. In addition, electric vehicles are powered by batteries, and the number of electronic devices installed is much larger than that of cars, so the demand for diodes is greater.
Secondly, the price increase of power diodes due to new energy vehicles has not been a day or two, and the performance of many Taiwanese manufacturers has reached new highs. According to Taiwan Stock Review:
discrete diodes have been out of stock in 2018, which has led to significant growth in the performance of major "domestic" diode manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor, Dunnan and Qiangmao. Among them, Taihan's consolidated revenue in 2018 reached 9.611 billion yuan, a record high; Dunnan's full-year consolidated revenue was 12.105 billion yuan, the second highest in history. Legal persons are optimistic that both Dunnan and Taiwan Semi's net profit after tax have the opportunity to deliver high-level performance.
Regarding the operating performance of Taihan, Dunnan and Qiangmao in 2019, the legal person believes that as the electric vehicle and automotive electronics markets continue to grow significantly, the usage of diodes will only continue to grow. In addition, the current Sino-US trade war impasse remains unresolved. Three major factors, including the opportunity for system manufacturers in mainland China to transfer orders to Taiwanese diode manufacturers, and the trend of rising prices and shortages, are optimistic that the performance of major diode manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor, Dunnan, Qiangmao and Dewei will be expected to continue in 2019. Ushering in a new wave of peaks.
At present, the operating performance of major A-share power diode companies, such as Jiejie Microelectronics and Yangjie Technology, is also remarkable.
Made in China 2025.
It can be observed that at a time when Sino-US trade negotiations are in full swing, Trump signed the US Artificial Intelligence Development Initiative Plan, which shows that the United States also encourages industrial support policies. Therefore, in addition to the possibility of reaching an agreement first on the intellectual property issues we highlighted yesterday, the Sino-US trade friction may also benefit from the concept of Made in China 2025.
Note that the market once hyped this angle when trade frictions eased, and this angle is very closely related to a large number of technology growth stocks and is also in line with the current market aesthetic. Some of them were subject to trade frictions in the early stage and experienced deep corrections in the direction of high-tech independent intellectual property rights, which are worthy of investors' close tracking.
