Quietly, the big news is here. If the most asked question by friends a few days ago was "Can we still do new energy?", then the most asked question today must be "Can we still do new energy?" "
You taste it carefully.
Today, the new energy sector fell miserably, but I believe it will not be a surprise to many people, especially to old investors, this is a late negative line.
The recent strength of the market has far exceeded many people’s expectations, especially for old investors. Basically, anyone who warns of risks these days will be ruthlessly slapped in the face, and timid old investors will be beaten mercilessly. The hardest slap in the face, except today.
The past wave of market conditions has been too violent, especially in the main automobile sector. In 2 months, the index has doubled from the bottom. Basically, within 2 months, there has been no decent adjustment. Although there have been faint signs of adjustments in the past few days, they have all been completed quickly within the day. Today is the first serious adjustment.
So here comes the question: Is this the end of the new energy market?
This issue should be looked at in the short term and the long term. If it is the short term: leo believes that it is not over yet, and there is a high probability that there will be a second wave, but he will keep a close eye on it and beware of the trend getting worse.
The reason is what I told you before: is optimistic about the chance of reversal in the new energy industry in the second half of the year .
The reason why we are still a little worried about the short and medium term is because this reversal came a month earlier than expected, and it was so fierce. The indexes of several new energy sectors soared by 50~60%, doubling There are countless stocks, and there are also many big stocks that have doubled several times.
suddenly caused the price-earning ratio of the sector to reach 40 or 50 times. More or less, we have to be careful that the market is in a wave.
The reason why I prefer that the market is not over yet is that, in addition to the fact that there are no problems with the fundamentals of the new energy industry, it is also because there are still differences in the market. There are still many people who are worried about adjustments, and there are still many people who think that the market will not go far. Generally, as long as there are differences If it is still there, the market will most likely continue.
It’s just that it has rushed too fast in the past few weeks. I believe that more and more people are coming to the big market, and the differences have become smaller, so the trend will be more volatile.
Looking at the long term, it is even simpler. Not only is the market for new energy not over yet, on the contrary, it is still in a stage of vigorous development.
For example, new energy vehicles. A few days ago, CATL just released the Kirin battery. Through technological innovation, the Kirin battery can achieve a range of 1,000 kilometers and has a 4C charging rate, which means that it can theoretically be fully charged in 10 minutes. 1,000 kilometers, even with a discount, is a huge pressure on current fuel vehicles.
Consumers’ increasing preference for new energy vehicles is an incremental opportunity for new energy vehicle companies. Therefore, there is no problem in the development of new energy vehicles. The big wave is already rolling in, and countless super companies will be born in it. It is too early to worry about the future of the industry now!
Let’s look at photovoltaic . Although photovoltaics have indeed increased a lot in the past two years, we only need to look at two data: the trend chart of photovoltaic electricity cost and the proportion of new energy power generation in the global energy structure.
Photovoltaics have ushered in the era of affordable Internet access. The reduction in the cost of electricity brought about by each subsequent technological innovation will further accelerate the replacement of traditional energy sources by photovoltaics.
Looking at the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in the global energy structure, it is even more exciting! In the current global energy structure, photovoltaic power generation accounts for just over 3%. It’s exciting to think about how much room there will be for substitution in the future.
Wind power is similar, but relatively speaking, the cost reduction potential of wind power is smaller than that of photovoltaic. This is why the market is more interested in the photovoltaic industry. However, as the cost of offshore wind power decreases, the opportunities for wind power Not too small!
When the long-term development opportunities are determined, the industry may encounter some setbacks in the development process, and the performance in the capital market will also be repeated. But if we look at it over time, there is no problem. This will be a level of at least ten years. investment opportunities.
So, don’t panic about today’s big negative line!
On the contrary, Leo personally thinks it is a good thing. Although his retracement today is also very large, the market value has reached a new high in the past few days, but it has lost a lot today.
But this big negative line can make you calm down from the hot market. You will not be as impetuous as a few days ago, always thinking about catching up quickly, but calm down and think about the longer-term development and long-term development of the industry. Opportunity.
It is best to make another adjustment to slow down the market and the market can go longer. Anyway, for the new energy industry, everyone only needs to grasp one thing: there is no problem with the logic of the current industry. The market is not killing logic, but killing valuations. That’s all.
Once this is clarified, the industry does not need to worry!
