In recent days, the market for new energy has been in full swing! As a fan of Muyu who has invested heavily in new energy both on and off the market for a long time, while enjoying the results, he can’t help but worry about gains and losses. If the price rises too much, he will worry about when to leave!
Human nature is inherently greedy, and everyone wants to perfect and escape . Although it is difficult to be "perfect", at this time we sum up some experiences and lessons, and we are likely to do better than last time, so that the evacuation losses will be smaller! Of course, if you are a long-term strategic investor, please ignore it automatically! The blue ocean cycle of new energy is not over yet. Everyone has time on the weekend, and this issue is more serious, so the number of words is a bit long, so please be patient!
First of all, let’s deny the lowest level statement: if it rises too much, it will fall. This is the same as people will die if they live for a long time. How much rise is too much? Is it too much if , Tesla, , , Tencent, and have increased hundreds of times? ! It’s worth noting that it’s completely nutritious.
Furthermore, the technical faction may have something to say!
However, the current market liquidity is abundant and the market efficiency is extremely strong, making technical analysis more difficult. For example, counting waves, in fact, many times it is a self-justifying set of explanations. After three, four, and five, you can still A\B\C. There is always a reason to explain the accident. So technologies such as , , and deviation are also fragile under the power of institutional unity. Take the market situation of new energy last year as an example. The bottom of did not deviate from before it could rise sharply. The top of deviated from before falling for several months. It is like guessing that a fall will happen every day. This is not practical. What is the connotation of technical analysis? It is a tool used to unify market trend judgment and form a synergy of funds when A shares are short of funds. But what if there is no shortage of money? The trillion-dollar ticket is filled directly. Any technical analysis is empty talk and can only be used to assist judgment.
Is there anyone talking about fundamental changes? Muyu ventured to say: Who is the real authority on industry fundamentals? Even if you understand it, it’s useless if others don’t recognize it. The trend is all determined by gaming!
Look at the industry research report last December, who is bullish? Almost no industry analysts will ruin their own situation! For so long, I have seen educated analysts have a "cautious" rating on their own industry, while others are all bullish no matter what they look like. Therefore, no matter how much data the analyst cites, you can understand it as knowledge. In a complex market game environment, something else is still needed.
So below, Muyu is just a personal sharing, but as a long-term investor in new energy, I can share some of my own opinions and try to be well-founded so that we can do better than last time.
First, let’s look at the timeline and look for patterns.
Judging from the timeline, the period from early December last year to January 24 this year was a relatively independent market adjustment for new energy. From then until April, it was largely a system adjustment stage, that is, most market themes emerged. Adjustment, this is also due to the indiscriminate decline of caused by external interest rate hike, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, if we want to study the adjustment of new energy, our focus should be on the relatively independent adjustment stage of new energy.
Among them, the news in December was quite lively.
Longi ’s two major price cuts in the first half of December started a price war, but also made the market full of doubts about the prosperity of the demand side. Institutions are highly sensitive to any potential downside at high levels, and therefore have a strong willingness to take profits. In early December, rumors of sanctions against King Ning led to a continuous sharp decline, which also severely hit the market sentiment. If you look at the corresponding relationship at time points, if the leading stocks of institutions such as Longi and Ningwang are negative at high levels, it is very worthy of vigilance. The market is highly efficient. If an institution finds that there is danger, it will desperately ship or even directly entrust the market to hit the limit. The method is consistent with hot money . No matter what kind of white horse it is, it will plummet.
can be summed up. The negative plunge of high-level leading stocks deserves close attention .
also has a key observation point, the liquidity transfer of market funds.Many friends know that the main force's funds are not idle. This means that the main force's money usually must be allocated to something, and the proportion of currency holdings is very low. Then let’s not play with new energy. It must have somewhere to go, and these places should also have reliable logic to help everyone form a new sense of “grouping together”!
Due to the popularity of worthless concepts such as quantitative funds that pursue funds that only pursue short-term returns, if there is a new grouping logic, funds will quickly shift the flow momentum from high to low. For example, if Evergrande , Sunac and others announce that the debt problem has been completely resolved at this time, then New Energy will almost certainly disintegrate immediately. This has nothing to do with industry fundamentals, it is just a flow effect.
So let’s see which topics received traffic transfers during the new energy adjustment.
We have counted the stocks that performed strongly during the new energy crash. What did you find? "Reversal of adversity", "new infrastructure" and cyclical varieties!
briefly look at the logic. At that time, the whole country was already full of confidence in controlling the epidemic, and expectations for a reversal in tourism were strong. When pork prices hit rock bottom, institutions bet that "the downside is less than the upside," creating a wave of market sentiment. If these themes make sense logically, they can become reasons for avoiding risks or forming new tracks.
The recovery of real estate and the acceleration of infrastructure construction were the newly released policy directions at that time, and the so-called "depression" was the subject of institutional bets. Banks, on the other hand, have linked up with real estate to form a safe haven for low valuations.
In addition, there are a large number of quantitative funds in the market. This type of funds is dedicated to chasing the rise and killing the fall, which will intensify the decline and make the rise get higher. Let's take a look at the style rules below, and maybe we'll have clues.
Use our Muyu report to do a style analysis. The growth style of the track is mainly based on new energy and semiconductors, while the value blue chip is based on financial real estate infrastructure with PE valuation as the core. The trends of the two major styles show a significant pattern of ebb and flow during the market shock cycle. During the cycle when the overall center of gravity of the market rises or falls, they will also rise or fall together, but single-day reverse trends often occur.
started in August last year, and it is still the same pattern. In a systemic crash, everyone falls together, but if not, then you must be stronger than me.
In fact, many of our friends have experienced that the current Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has almost no value. If the theme you choose is not a mainstream style, the index will continue to fall even if the index rises. Quantitative funds have played an important role in chasing ups and downs. A-shares are now the most differentiated market in the world, and this is not the case in beautiful countries.
Therefore, there is a possibility that if there are new hot spots with different styles in the market to compete for traffic, the chips of new energy will be loosened.
Who are potential enemies? We did a 120-day correlation analysis. The above theme trends are completely opposite to the new energy trends, and many of their faces also appeared in the comparative themes from December last year to January this year. If financial real estate takes off, the style will be completely different.
real estate is a clear example. Judging from the K-line trend in the past six months, unless there is a systemic crash, the trend will be opposite most days. The huge influence brought by investment style can be seen.
Therefore, there can be a general summary: when other major styles of usher in the trend, new energy chips will also loosen .
Of course, the monetary policy style of the general environment and risk aversion are also important reference items.
Looking at the trend of risk-free interest rates common in the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond market, it still puts pressure on risky assets, especially growth stocks. But the good thing is that our domestic monetary policy is still liberalized. Therefore, in this round of new energy market, foreign investment has not been deeply involved because it maintains a risk preference similar to overseas. Instead, the main pricing power is domestic investment. This is different from the consumer pricing power. Foreign capital is just the opposite. At present, the focus of overseas markets is on the stagflation of and . In this weak economic cycle, industries that are still in the blue ocean stand out from the crowd. The above factors can also be considered.
-Summary-
For new energy, now is the best time, but it is also a critical moment to be prepared for danger in times of peace. When the market is good, they all think they are stock gods, and when the market is bad, they blame others. Generally speaking, Muyu individuals will pay more attention to the negative highs of leading stocks and changes in market style, especially the "flow reversal" caused by the low positives of big themes. If none of these appear, just continue to hold positions, positions and take profits proportionally. You can go further by following principles!
and above are purely personal sharing, the level is limited, I hope it can be of reference value to everyone! Please like, follow, comment, forward and share, so that Muyu, who insists on being 100% original, can go further!
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