On the last trading day of the third quarter, black futures rose sharply again, and the ETF price increase ranking during the year also changed accordingly. Half a month ago, the coal ETF's increase during the year once exceeded 100%, becoming the first ETF to double during the y

Financial News Agency reported on September 30 that on the last trading day of the third quarter, black futures rose sharply again, and the ranking of ETF on-site price increases during the year also changed accordingly.

Half a month ago, the coal ETF’s growth rate exceeded 100% during the year, becoming the first ETF to double during the year. But since then, the direction of the industry rotation has changed again. The overall correction of the black sector has dragged down ETF prices. Although the coal ETF closed with a sharp increase on the last trading day of September, it still cannot withstand the simultaneous rise of its "opponents". In 2021 In the first three quarters, ETF growth fell to second place.

Unlike the coal ETF, the new front-runner energy and chemical ETF is a commodities ETF. The underlying index it tracks is the Yisheng Energy A Index. The components are not stocks, but four energy commodity futures contracts of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange thermal coal, PTA, methanol and glass.

Source: CCB Yisheng Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF 2021 Interim Report

Since this year, the futures prices of black commodities represented by coal have been in an upward channel far higher than in the past, especially due to insufficient production capacity and import restrictions. Due to the supply shortage and the tight electricity demand brought about by economic recovery, the futures price of thermal coal used in thermal power has risen rapidly since August.

html In September, the main thermal coal contract ZC201 surged nearly 60% in a single month. Not only did it (the main contract) break through 1,000 yuan for the first time, but it also broke through several integer marks. On the last trading day of this month, it even exceeded 1,400 yuan/ton. The record high is far behind.

At the same time, as a component of the coal chemical industry chain, the methanol industry is also affected by the "coal shortage" and the production capacity is limited under the "dual energy consumption control". The monthly increase in the main contract also exceeded 35%... Sustained The energy and chemical ETF, which has the two major futures contracts of thermal coal and methanol, has continued to fluctuate in the A-share market and lacked an upward trend. It has emerged from an independent market, surpassed many opponents in the shortest time, and topped the first three quarters of ETF fund in 2021. Top spot.

Due to the built-in leverage , long and short two-way trading investment methods, the investment threshold for futures trading is higher for ordinary investors. Participating in futures investment through index fund may reduce risks to a certain extent. But it is still a higher-risk investment method.

Compared with stock ETFs, commodity ETFs directly allocate commodity futures contracts, and the cyclical characteristics of commodity prices are more obvious and direct. Currently, the main thermal coal of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is the ZC201 contract for delivery in January next year, and January is the Although the ZC203 and ZC205 contracts for delivery in the off-season next year, which is the traditional peak season for thermal coal, soared today, the closing prices were both less than 1,200 yuan/ton, and the far-month contracts were at a significant discount.

But in the short term, institutions are still bullish on thermal coal prices in the fourth quarter.

Tianfeng Futures pointed out that overall, the effect of ensuring supply is beginning to appear, but due to safety and environmental protection requirements, it will be difficult to continue to significantly increase production in the future. Under the high international coal prices, thermal coal inventory pressure remains, "The current rise in thermal coal The main reason is the pain in the energy transformation process, and thermal coal prices may remain strong in the fourth quarter."

Source: Tianfeng Futures

Yingda Futures stated that under the background that the market-based price mechanism for thermal coal continues to function, the long-term agreement price mechanism effectively plays the bottom-up guarantee function, and the coal industry is transforming to high-quality development, superimposing power guarantee supply tasks, thermal coal futures prices will still maintain a high and volatile consolidation pattern in the market outlook.

Chuancai Securities believes that the performance expectations of relevant industry sectors may be raised, and the growth rate of industry profits is accelerating, which means that there is still the possibility of upward revisions of the sector's performance expectations.

However, as the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have successively introduced measures in recent days to increase the supply of thermal coal; at the same time, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has taken measures including transaction limits, adjustments to transaction fees and margin standards to restrict speculative trading in thermal coal futures, which may have a negative impact on thermal coal futures speculation. ETF positions moved from month to month causing ripples. For energy and chemical ETFs, whether they can continue to maintain their lead needs to be further observed after the trading in the fourth quarter is officially launched.