In the A-share market, PetroChina and Sinopec are two entities that cannot be ignored. Whether you buy or not, their total market value is high, but slowly falling.
Many people who are new to the stock market will think that no matter how society runs today, it is inseparable from oil, and oil is needed for everything, so buying oil stocks must be reliable. Even Buffett has bought our oil stocks. The logic is fine, but their stock prices are painful again and again.
Shareholders also write jokes online every day:
First line: Crude oil is going down, but I won’t. I am different from crude oil. Second line: When crude oil goes up, I will go up. Crude oil has an impact on me. Horizontal comment: Two barrels of oil
ask you how much sorrow you can have, just like a full warehouse PetroChina .
I don’t know PetroChina when it comes to stock trading, and ten years of stock trading experience is in vain.
First, let’s take a look at the highlight moments of , petroleum, , where the lighting assistant can light up.
PetroChina had a market value of US$1.24 trillion (equivalent to RMB 8.89 trillion) when it was listed in 2007. What is the concept? At that time, our country's annual GDP was 3.55 trillion US dollars, and PetroChina accounted for 35% of the total GDP at that time. Absolutely wealthy, astonishingly wealthy, a super giant, a shining star who is favored by thousands of people.
Today:
PetroChina has a market value of more than 700 billion yuan, with a market value of 8 trillion yuan less. 8 trillion is equivalent to 2 Tencents. Tencent’s current market value is 4 trillion.
is really the water of the West Lake, the tears of investors, the bricks of the Great Wall, and the liver of investors.
In 2019, the total GDP of our country was 99.08 trillion, and PetroChina only accounted for 0.7%. Then many people stood up and advocated that PetroChina had returned to the value range, and it was time to buy some from Buffett again. Hurry up and get on the bus if you want to buy. Hurry.
Come on, let's chat for a while and see if we need to pay for the ticket to get on the bus.
1. PetroChina and Sinopec. A pair of brothers later separated.
It would be too boring to just talk about PetroChina . His brother Sinopec must be involved. Many people are confused about the two brothers. In fact, the two families love each other, but they have grown up gradually, so they separated in 1998. Now they live their own lives, and sometimes they help each other as parents.
In the early years, both companies came from the same bloodline - the Ministry of Petroleum. When they were separated, the old father made a big stroke, and the north of the Yellow River belonged to PetroChina , and the south belonged to Sinopec. Sinopec was anxious when he heard that, you know Our country's oil fields are all in the northwest and northeast. The oil fields are all given to , PetroChina, brother. What does Sinopec drink? The old father waved his hand and said, "Don't worry." Foreign oil is dark and fragrant. I will allocate more quotas for imported oil to you in the future. Moreover, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are both in the south, so there is no need to worry about sales. My bowl of water is flat!
Then the two oil companies started their growth path of more than 20 years with great fanfare.
omits the millions of words of growth history and directly talks about the current situation of the two brothers.
The eldest brother PetroChina has total assets of 2.7 trillion and annual revenue of 2.5 trillion. The second brother Sinopec has total assets of 1.75 trillion and annual revenue of 2.96 trillion. The above data is for 2019.
Do you see the difference? Although Sinopec once had few assets (little assets), it was a latecomer and a rising star, with fast and high revenue growth, far exceeding that of its elder brother.
Now the second eldest Sinopec has net assets of only more than 870 billion, with a return on net assets of 8%; the eldest has a net worth of 1.4 trillion, and a return on net assets of only 4%. Is this ratio twice as bad as it is? That is to say, Sinopec used half of the net assets of and PetroChina to create the same profit.
For example, you and your brother opened a company respectively. Your father gave your brother 10,000 yuan and you 5,000 yuan. As a result, ten years later, you earn 20,000 yuan a year, but your brother only earns 10,000 yuan.
You said: Who can do it between you and your brother? The old father also saw the second son's ability and thought that the second son must help the elder brother improve his performance. So the chairman of Sinopec was transferred to PetroChina , Mr. Dai Houliang, who had worked at Sinopec for decades and made Sinopec's operations successful, and now he is here at PetroChina .
If you look at two barrels of oil from an operational perspective, Sinopec is obviously better.But from the stock price point of view, as of June 1, the two stock prices are really brothers, Sinopec's 4.2 yuan, PetroChina 4.29 yuan, PetroChina is still slightly higher. Since the stock price gap is too small, we will not elaborate on the difference.
2. Why is the stock price so low?
Let’s take a look at why the stock price is so low. The stock price is everyone’s reaction to two barrels of oil. The stock price is not high, which means that the people are not optimistic about it. Why are they not optimistic about it? There may be several reasons as follows.
1. The old father dotes on them and controls them too much.
Originally, the two brothers were allowed to go to the market to experience alone, and maybe they would grow faster. Unfortunately, oil is the blood of industry and permeates the entire industrial chain. We dare not and cannot let it go, as this is related to the safety of a home. The old father saw it through, so he still holds the real power in management, does everything himself, and approves everything by himself. The two sons do not dare to put forward their ideas at will, and stability is the priority. As time went by, the two sons also wanted to be lazy and simply buy some crude oil from abroad and sell it directly. They didn’t need to put in much effort. They could drink a big pot just by pumping out the oil quota. So delicious.
Sometimes the old father asked them to help some poor relatives and go to the countryside to help the poor. So we can’t just say PetroChina and Sinopec have many people, there are all the things that need to be done.
Generally speaking, the two companies are the only ones in the field of oil exploration and refining. There are almost no competitors in the domestic market. There are no other catfish and sharks. These other big fish swim slowly and leisurely.
2, Lao Shalai, an upstart from afar, disrupts the situation
If there is no domestic competition because the family is big and the business is big, then it is not so good luck abroad.
In the distant Middle East, the yellow land (desert) is covered with black oil. The oil fields here can produce oil even by inserting a straw, but in our black soil it may take a while to dig out the oil. From the extraction stage of our oil, the cost is much higher than others, and this cost cannot be reduced no matter how hard it is reduced. Although all roads lead to Rome, some people are born in Rome.
The cost of a barrel of Saudi oil is roughly US$10, and the cost of some oil ponds is even less than US$1, so it is true that water is more expensive than oil in Saudi Arabia. Our cost per barrel reaches US$50, and imported oil plus freight is much cheaper than our own production. When we buy bread which is half cheaper than making bread and the quality is better, some people may say that we should just import it.
I want to say that the chip being blocked is still fresh in my mind. We must be independent in such a critical oil industry and cannot be controlled by others. We are not afraid of being blocked, and we welcome cooperation.
has become a very big partner of ours because the oil in the Middle East is good and cheap.
In our impression, the oil kings in the Middle East all look like this.
At first glance, it seems that there are mines at home, and they really are.
The world's largest oil company comes from Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, and its name is Saudi Aramco. As soon as I heard this name, I just wanted to say: I'm going to do it. There are traces of old beauty everywhere, and its penetration rate is better than oil.
Only by knowing yourself and the enemy can you be victorious in every battle.
If we only talk about the two oil brothers, it would be too boring. We must talk about this upstart king from afar - Saudi Aramco. Look at the gap between our two brothers and Lao Wang.
Saudi Aramco’s net profit in 2019 was US$88.2 billion, more than the total of the world’s 12 oil companies.
Two Barrels of Oil The brothers’ combined net profit for 2019 was 139.1 billion yuan, equivalent to 19.5 billion U.S. dollars, only 22% of Saudi Aramco’s. It hasn’t reached their waistline yet.
This shows the wealth and arrogance of Saudi Arabia, but don’t be envious. Apart from oil, they don’t have any other special products. Although our oil is not as good as theirs, we have many other products. It's like when I was in school. Although I wasn't the first in the class, I wasn't partial to subjects. I had a balanced development of morality, intelligence, physical education, art, and labor.
Saudi Aramco’s current share price is 32.9/sand dollars, equivalent to RMB 62.4, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 and a net profit margin of 26.05%. It set a global record when it went public in 2019, with a market value of US$2 trillion, several times higher than the GDP of Saudi Arabia. Not surprisingly, the market value has also dropped by several PetroChina , and the current total market value is 1.5 trillion US dollars.
has said so much about Saudi Aramco. In fact, he wants to show everyone his competitors and see how strong they are, where our gap is, and whether we can catch up with our hard work if we are born with deficiencies. If the congenital defects cannot be compensated, we can consider finding another way.
This is like Saudi Arabia suffering from obesity. We are born fat and we cannot take hormones. Although we are thin, we can also be very strong. What is the best way to strengthen
? See the next article
3, refining and chemical integration, deep processing, need to strengthen
In fact, it was already agreed when the company was separated. PetroChina in the north focuses on exploration and mining, while Sinopec in the south focuses on refining and sales. Therefore, the second brother Sinopec's refining capacity is higher.
What is refining used for? In fact, it is deep processing. For example, if there is a good harvest of apples, if farmers cannot sell them, they will rot on the trees and their income will be less. Then build a small machine to dry the apples to make dried apples, add some water to the apples to make canned apples, and ferment the apples to make apple cider vinegar. I can’t sell them all in the past few months, but I can still sell them in the second half of the year. The added value of Apple products will also increase, the price can also be increased, the storage time will increase, and the income will also increase.
The same goes for petroleum. The products produced by petroleum refining are mainly various chemicals, including various alkenes, benzene, etc.; they are ultimately used in the clothes we wear, the plastic products we use daily, etc. These common things we see all come from petroleum.
Here’s a little interjection: Every time I go out to buy clothes, the salespersons say that the fabrics of our products are very good, made of silk, and are purely natural. When I saw that it was made of nylon filament, I immediately put it down. This kind of IQ tax would not be charged to me. I am so arrogant when I wear Doliang (polyester) fabrics.
So PetroChina , how about the deep processing capabilities of Sinopec? PetroChina currently earns more than 75% of its revenue from selling crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and natural gas. Sinopec’s ratio is only 60%. It is obvious that Sinopec has expanded deeper into the downstream industry chain and is not simply making a living by selling base oil products. But this kind of change is extremely uncomfortable and cannot be achieved without strong reformers. Because the main business of buying and selling oil products is too easy, the money comes in quickly, and the turnover is high. It is not necessarily profitable to work hard to expand downstream and break through technology. We still need to rely on private entrepreneurs for this business.
4. The emergence of new energy, coupled with the epidemic, and sluggish demand.
Under the epidemic, crude oil prices have repeatedly hit new lows, and even experienced unprecedented negative oil prices. Why are you embarrassing these oil-producing people? Mining a bucket, losing a bucket. No one has used it since it was mined.
The national level also vigorously subsidizes new energy and encourages everyone to travel green. These traditional oil aristocrats are considered to be in decline and are not welcome.
So if you look at the stock prices of these traditional energy sources, such as oil and coal, the price-to-book ratio has already exceeded 1, and everyone still thinks they are expensive. From a value investment perspective, this price is quite worthwhile. The dividend rate of Sinopec is 7.38%, while the dividend rate of and PetroChina is only 1.81%. Even if the price does not rise if you buy Sinopec, this dividend will definitely outperform financial management. If you expect to make a profit, you might as well go to bed, times don't allow it. A new era has arrived, and some industries need to be reshuffled.
The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market.
buys Sinopec, the whole family is not afraid
buys shares of PetroChina , happy every day
does not buy either, happy and cheerful.
will encourage you!
