Against the background of the rapid depreciation of the yen, many people are attracted to shopping. If you buy an apple 13 in Japan, there will be a price difference of more than 1,000 yuan compared to domestic prices. There are many such things, and the locals are very unhappy about them. This is obviously a cheap deal.
The Japanese yen is a traditional Asian currency that has experienced ups and downs over the decades. Every time it depreciates, Japan benefits a lot. On the contrary, that big appreciation was scarred.
Thirty years in Hedong and thirty years in Hexi. Will the depreciation of the yen at this time replicate the glory of the late 1990s? To use force and force is just to carve a boat to seek a sword, or to rely on a tree to seek a fish.
- The impact of yen fluctuations in history
In 1985, Japan signed the Square Agreement, and the yen appreciated by more than 5% annually on average. By 1995, it reached a historical high of 80 yen per US dollar.
During this period, Japan experienced an explosion of self-confidence and suffered a capital market bubble. At its peak, land prices in Tokyo, Japan, could buy the United States. Tourist attractions around the world are equipped with Japanese translators. After the appreciation of the yen, the purchasing power has greatly increased, and luxury goods around the world will be sold well with Japanese elements. Japan's strength is one factor, and more importantly, it is necessary to make money from the Japanese.
In the history of our country, Guilin Airport once had a glorious history. From 1984 to 1988, its throughput ranked fourth in the country after Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. To this day, it is difficult to rank in the top 20, let alone the top four. In its glory days, Japanese tourists once made great efforts. In the current Guangxi tourism circle, most of the leaders of large companies have Japanese backgrounds, which is a microcosm of those years.
Of course, our country is only one of the destinations.
Behind the fanatical consumption wave is Japan's hard work after World War II. After the transfer of American industries, the clever Japanese used chickens to lay eggs, and even went so far as to learn from the foreigners and learn their skills in order to control the foreigners. In some areas, it surpasses or even defeats American companies. Such as electronic products, semiconductors, and even automobiles.
This made Americans pay attention to their godson for the first time, so they led the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1855.
The Japanese were dazzled by the victory, but they also paved the way for the lost N decades.
In 1996, the Japanese seemed to have come back and led the depreciation of the yen to boost the economy. In 1998, the Asian financial and economic crisis broke out. With the vicious depreciation of currencies such as the Thai baht, the Japanese yen has also followed the trend, and the exchange rate once reached 147 yen per US dollar.
benefited from the complete industrial chain at that time, and the domestic economy improved again after the depreciation of the yen. The 14 trillion yen trade surplus was earned during that period. By the way, following the US dollar's harvest in Asia, I also got a share of the pie, and Japan's vitality has recovered a little.
Throughout Japan's history, the appreciation of the yen brought short-term prosperity, but it paid a heavy price. But active depreciation is a different story. Not only can it make money, the domestic economy will also continue to strengthen. This approach has been tried and true. For example, active depreciation was carried out in 2005 and 2013.
enters 2022, and this time the depreciation is even greater, which may be close to or even exceed that of 1998.
So, can it regain its glory this time?
2. This time the yen depreciates, the cost will be greater and the results will be minimal.
If the yen is actively depreciating this time, it is not to boost the economy, but more importantly to protect the national debt bubble from bursting.
The current size of Japan’s national debt is 12.16 million yen. Let’s do a calculation. If the yen depreciates to 1:200 against the US dollar, it will make the Japanese government default on half of its debt in US dollars... We did a calculation a few days ago, and now What Japanese bonds can bear is negative interest rates . Therefore, the central bank of Japan keeps interest rates unchanged, otherwise it will burst the debt bubble.
After talking about debt, let’s talk about Japan’s industrial structure, which is completely different from around 1996.
When we were young in the 1980s, if a home appliance had a Japanese brand, it must be like a wealthy person. This is especially true for large items such as cars and motorcycles. In high school, if there was a walkman, he would definitely be admired by his friends. This was actually Japan’s industrial chain back then. This is also the basic logic of Japan's trade surplus. Nowadays, the Japanese brand that makes you proud to own may have been buried in the memory of the past.
After entering the year 2000, Japan missed the Internet boom and also lost many industrial chains. Correspondingly, large items such as home appliances and cars have been overtaken by neighbors. In the export data for the first five months of this year, my country's automobile exports have exceeded one million. If Japan's position falls again, Japan will lose a large part of its surplus later.
Let’s look at Japan’s trade data this year. With the depreciation of the yen, there has been no improvement. The full-year deficit in 2021 will be 537.49 trillion. After entering 2022, the yen continues to depreciate, and the deficit continues to worsen. The main reason is that high energy prices and high dependence on imported food and energy have worsened Japan's trade deficit.
is like a question I did when I was a kid: how long does it take for a pipe to drain a pool of water, and how long does it take for a pipe to fill it with water. Open both tubes together...
At present, Japan's biggest reliance is more than one trillion U.S. dollars of U.S. debt. These are the trading currencies for imported energy and food. Most people cannot do settlement in Japanese yen. Because it will continue to depreciate.
The bigger problem now is that imported inflation in Japan is inevitable. While foreign dealers are sweeping up goods, Japanese locals are experiencing hardship. Electricity bills and gas prices are rising, and Japan's CPI data has exceeded 2%. This is a level that the Bank of Japan has been unable to reach despite its years of efforts to ease the situation.
The current problem is that the interest rate hike government cannot bear it. If interest rates are not raised, the people will not be able to bear it. The United States cannot bear the increased selling of U.S. debt.
Japan, many people can’t bear the thought of it now...
In short, any step Japan takes cannot be underestimated, and it has many levels of constraints. One small step forward means one giant leap for the world.
The gain outweighs the gain.
3. About the capital market
Since entering 2022, the capital market has been planning to flee. Virtual assets such as Bitcoin and Luna have been cut in half or even in reverse. In particular, European and American stock markets have entered a sharp retracement, casting a shadow over the financial market.
All of this is because the global central bank the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity. This has led to downward pricing in financial markets, from Japan's bond market to European and American stock markets, to our second-hand housing market. The three major bubbles in the past have now dimmed slightly, and everyone is working hard to cover them up and delay them as much as possible without being affected.
But in the stock market, A shares , which fell early, have withstood the test. When all the stock markets have fallen recently, Big A has taken vigorous steps and shown an arrogant look.
The trend of the stock market today surprised me. It rose sharply under the background of Black Thursday, completely swallowing up yesterday's negative trend. This form has returned to what seems to be an upward trend. So there will be a sudden movement tomorrow, and this view remains unchanged...
peripherals will have a rebound today, but the durability remains to be seen.
Taken together, the inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan has put us in a state of suffering. Every step is difficult to choose, and every step has huge consequences.
What we can do now is wait for some things to change. When..., let's cherish the opportunity again.
