In the morning, the first historical memory of this time came to my mind. In February 222, Liu Bei led his army into Zigui to fight against Soochow in order to avenge his second brother Guan Yu.

Today is a day with many "2"s - February 22, 2022.

In the morning, the first historical memory of this time in my mind is.

In February 2222, Liu Bei in order to avenge his second brother Guan Yu, led his army into Zigui to fight in Soochow.

Unexpectedly, the news immediately drew my attention from the Three Kingdoms to the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. To be precise, it was another Three Kingdoms battlefield.

In ancient times, the Three Kingdoms stood in a tripartite state. From the Battle of Chibi Cao Cao retreated to the north, Liu Bei took Jingzhou and got Yizhou .

Today's three countries stand in a tripartite state, which can be explained by the disintegration of the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union does not disintegrate, the core contradiction in the world will be the confrontation between the two camps of socialism and capitalism - also called the struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union for hegemony.

Everyone should be familiar with this period of history about the struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union for hegemony.

Russia gathered a group of brothers around it, and a total of 15 union republics formed the Soviet Union. Among them, Ukraine was in the second position in terms of economy and population. Russia is the eldest brother and Ukraine is the second brother. This is the year 1922.

What is the biggest thing that has just happened on the earth in 1922 and what is the big thing that is about to happen?

The First World War ended in 1918 , 1939 was World War II .

Then Germany surrendered in 1945, World War II ended.

After the European countries restored peace, they looked back and saw, good guy, that country called the Soviet Union in the east has a super strong military.

Before, Germany had caused a lot of trouble in Europe. If the Soviet Union planned to invade Britain, France, and Spain, wouldn't it be meat on the chopping board?

So at the suggestion of the United States, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, France, etc. established NATO to counter the military pressure of the powerful Soviet Union.

Finally, the time came in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, no more, Warsaw was gone, and Russia and Ukraine finally separated.

But,

Warsaw is gone, but NATO is still there. Not only is NATO still there, it has also attracted many countries that were originally part of the Soviet Union to join. Poland Czech Hungary, Latvia , Lithuania , Slovakia , Slovenia , Romania and Bulgaria have joined.

To understand how NATO approaches Russia step by step. Now, let's take a look at the map

Simply put, there are only two countries next to Russia that are not NATO - One is Belarus which is highly consistent with Russia in culture and religion, and the other is the protagonist of today's article.

Before 1991, when Warsaw and NATO were in confrontation, the comparison between the two countries was 15 to 15.

The core of both sides is the United States versus Russia.

After 1991, Russia and NATO confronted each other, and the comparison between the European countries on the two sides was 30 to 5 (Belarus is considered a staunch ally of Russia, and there are also several Central Asian countries with a weak sense of presence).

NATO, represented by the United States, now wants to draw Ukraine into NATO.

Russia will not let Ukraine join NATO.

This is easy to understand. I once said that politics means having too many friends and too few enemies.

Once Ukraine joins NATO, the missile interception and missile launch system can be placed directly at the door.

The straight-line distance between the Russian capital Moscow and the Ukrainian border is 755 kilometers. Therefore, for Putin and the Russians, a real military threat lies ahead.

Two autonomous regions in Ukraine close to Russia declared independence this morning. (They are called People's Republics, which are actually more similar to our highly autonomous regions, which are at the administrative level of provinces.)

If you know Crimea left Ukraine and entered Russia, you are probably familiar with this operation.

Let’s go back to 2014 and take a look at these three Ukrainian “provinces”

I specially made a table to let everyone understand their specialness.

These three regions declared independence one after another in 2014, and the local armed forces stated that they were independent countries.

Crimea announced its intention to join the Russian Federation on March 18, 2014, and the other two regions are in the stage of " putting aside the dispute ". Joining Russia is not recognized, and Ukraine has no control over them.

What happened this morning was that Russia announced that it recognized these two regions as independent countries and established an alliance before its troops moved in. (In 2014, the two regions unilaterally declared independence, but Russia did not recognize it, so Russia did not send troops).

This concludes our discussion. Let’s briefly summarize it first, and then talk about the direction in which the situation may evolve in the future.

First of all, the struggle for hegemony between the Soviet Union and the United States led to the creation of Warsaw and NATO behind them.

Then, in 1991, the Soviet Union dissolved and Warsaw was dissolved. Russia inherited the Soviet Union and faced the pressure of the American group alone.

Then, in order to control Europe, the United States gradually expanded the membership of NATO. Eastern European countries that were once close to the Soviet Union and Russia joined NATO one after another.

The last step is to go to Ukraine. Russia made it clear that it does not allow the United States to bring Ukraine into NATO, but the current president of Ukraine just wants to join NATO.

In the face of national defense and security, strength speaks for itself. Only then did the drama of three regions become independent and then join Russia, as well as the chaos in Ukraine and the US-Russian sanctions.

Of course, I must add here the reason for the disintegration of the Soviet Union - at that time, the Soviet leaders naively thought that the capitalist countries headed by the United States would accept it, so they agreed to disband the Soviet Union. Looking back, it turned out that they were completely deceived by the United States.

So how will the situation develop? There are probably the following three situations:

First, the United States and Russia negotiate, not fight.

The United States, Ukraine and Russia all got the bottom line they wanted.

means shelving the disputes between the two regions, neither joining Russia nor truly leaving Ukraine independently.

Second, repeating the Crimean script, Ukrainians give in.

The two countries joined Russia, and Ukraine gave in because the United States did not help. It could not fight, or it was a small fight.

Third, accumulate conflicts and fight.

The United States and Russia cannot agree with each other, and their differences are huge. It has the greatest military impact, and the forces joining it are not only Ukraine and Russia, but also European countries and even the United States. I won’t predict where

will go in the end, I’ll just follow and observe.

As for the stock market, the current focus is definitely on avoiding the risk of capital fluctuations caused by war. Because war only has major negative effects on the economy and small negative effects on the economy, it definitely does not have any positive effects.

At present, both oil and gold are rising. These two commodities happen to be the cause and result of the rise of inflation . High inflation will accelerate the interest rate hike in the United States in terms of monetary policy. Therefore, from this perspective, we are also waiting for the situation to end smoothly.

In the Three Kingdoms two thousand years ago, the eldest brother Liu Bei gave up his original alliance with Soochow and instead attacked Soochow for the sake of his second brother Guan Yu. This was for the sake of the word "righteousness".

In the European battlefield two thousand years later, the second brother, Ukraine, wanted to create trouble for the former eldest brother, Russia, forcing the eldest brother to send troops into the second brother's territory.

What word is this for? A stupid word? No one knows about Ukraine or Russia, but the United States must be smiling crookedly. It has been the most active one in the past few days.