1, TSMC was cut off
The long-standing chip shortage seems to be easing, and the investment prospects of semiconductors have also become questionable.
The latest news revealed from TSMC is that the company may adjust its full-year revenue target downwards at its performance briefing half a month later. The reason is that , Apple, , AMD, and Nvidia have simultaneously reduced their orders to TSMC. .
Apple will launch the iPhone 14 series of mobile phones in the second half of this year. It was originally expected that the first batch of shipments would reach 90 million units, but now it may be reduced by 10%.
In addition, due to the downturn in the computer PC market, the previously high mining boom has also cooled down sharply recently, so AMD and Nvidia have also indicated to TSMC that they will reduce orders.
In the U.S. stock market, TSMC’s stock price fell 6.7% intraday last night, reaching a low of $76.18, setting a new low since this round of adjustments.
2, are there no shortage of chips? Data from South Korea shows that the country’s chip inventory is rising rapidly. The original shortage of semiconductor has now turned into an increase in inventory. Some prices have dropped from 70 yuan in March to only 32 yuan now.
Half a year ago, we saw many large manufacturers investing heavily in increasing production lines to cope with the shortage of semiconductors, but now the trend has turned. Semiconductor prices have plummeted during this period, and many major manufacturers are reducing production. Winter seems to have arrived for the semiconductor industry.
Taiwan Electromechanical’s stock price has already fallen 4.5% as soon as the market opened. Moreover, the microcontroller MCU, which was originally very priced and in short supply, has recently collapsed. Due to the impact of rising inflation and conflicts in Europe, the global consumer market is shrinking.
Correspondingly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell by more than 4%. The picture below is the weekly chart. It has been falling since the beginning of this year, and there are only a handful of cases where it has risen for more than 2 weeks in a row. The index had already fallen by 35% in the first half of the year, and fell sharply on the first day of the second half of the year.
In addition to the decline of TSMC, Dutch chip ASML also fell sharply. In addition, STMicroelectronics , Infineon , Nvidia, Qualcomm all fell, and the decline was more than 4%.
3, the semiconductor market of A shares
Returning to the A share market , we found that the National Securities Chip Index was at the lowest 7100 points on April 27, and has now risen to 9418 points. This round of rebound has reached 32.6%, and the strength of the rebound is not weak.
But we must also see that the index reached a maximum of 13,690 points in early August last year, which means that the index was almost cut in half during the previous decline. So even if it has rebounded by more than 30% from the low, it is still far away from the previous high.
We can also take a look at the growth of the famous semiconductor fund Nuoan. The highest price reached 2.626 yuan at the end of July last year. The previous lowest level of
reached 1.294 yuan, which was also cut in half. It has rebounded slightly recently and is currently only 1.623 yuan.
Many investors who bought at high prices still have a long way to go before they can recover their capital, even if they have continued to cover their positions during the sharp decline in the past six months.
Of course, the future trend should be more structural. The demand for consumer electronics has dropped significantly, but the demand for chips in new energy vehicles, data center business, etc. remains high, so for the future semiconductor chip sector Investment can no longer be as blind as before, but must identify high-quality listed companies.
Moreover, I prefer not to invest only in semiconductor themes, but to let some technology-themed fund managers decide what proportion of semiconductors should be included in their own investment portfolios? What chips does stock contain?
