[Cross-Strait Quick Review Issue 379] When many people talk about the 2020 election, they will think of two words: weird. From the beginning of this year to now, the electoral situation has changed several times. Now it seems that only Han and Cai are dueling. But while the numbe

[Cross-Strait Quick Review Issue 379]

When many people talk about the 2020 election, they will think of two words: weird. From the beginning of this year to now, the electoral situation has changed several times. Now it seems that only Han and Cai are dueling.

However, while the number of candidates has decreased, there are still many "weird" places. For example, many netizens can't understand why the Kuomintang candidate Han Guoyu is always crowded with people every time he campaigns, but the polls cannot catch up with the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Tsai Ing-wen?

What is even more "weird" is that the survey shows that 40% of Taiwanese people believe that Han Kuo-yu is better at understanding the sufferings of the people, while only 28% think that Tsai Ing-wen understands public opinion. So since Han Guoyu understands the hearts and minds of ordinary people, why can't the polls be held?

The reasons are very complex, including disruption and containment by big bosses and factions within the Kuomintang, as well as smearing and slander from rival Tsai Ing-wen’s camp.

After the "Nine-in-One" policy in 2018, the "Korean Wave" created by Han Kuo-yu swept across Taiwan's counties and cities, allowing the Kuomintang not only to make a beautiful turnaround, but also to win a very advantageous starting point for the next 2020 general election. .

Han Kuo-yu, who has transformed from the original "defeat" to the "counterattacker", continues to expand his momentum, even far exceeding the energy of the " Kaohsiung Mayor", and is targeting 2020.

But choosing a leader as soon as the mayor is elected is a huge flaw in political integrity for Han Kuo-yu; for competitors within the KMT, it is a natural barrier to "Kahan"; for the DPP camp Specifically, because of Han's "original sin", he will become their easiest opponent to defeat.

Before South Korea expressed its intention to run for the election, the "Korean" and "anti-South Korean" sentiments in the party had always been there, while the DPP strategically "supported South Korea" and "helped South Korea." Several forces collided, leaving the Kuomintang party The internal election has committed the old problem of "disunity", and this scar is what Hanguo Yu must try his best to smooth away at the moment.

After Han Kuo-yu was confirmed as the KMT candidate in 2020, the Democratic Progressive Party started to use administrative advantages, Kaohsiung City Council, cyber army and other means to comprehensively "attack South Korea", which greatly damaged South Korea's image and momentum. Heavy setback.

In addition, due to the controversy over Han Kuo-yu’s own words and deeds and the institutional effect of polls, Han Kuo-yu is still far away from his opponents in polls.

As for Hanguo-yu's way out, in addition to effectively integrating blue camp supporters, the more critical point is whether he can win more youth votes and gain the support of more young people, economic voters and middle voters. (Text/Guan Qixing)