(Dongbo News reporter/Guan Qiuyun) On May 25, 2022, the Philippine Congress officially confirmed that Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos (Marcos Jr.) was elected as the 17th President of the Philippines. Although the "basic basis" of the election has been determined, the undercurrent of the Philippines political arena and the current thorny economic problems not only test Marcos's ability to govern, but also attract the spotlight of public opinion: the man who called for "unity and recovery" Will the new president continue Duterte's "iron-fisted politics" style? How will he promote the Philippine economy to recover from the impact of the epidemic? As US President Biden 's Indo-Pacific strategy continues to advance in Southeast Asia, what kind of foreign policy is the most appropriate for the Philippines?
Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos (aka Marcos Jr.) was elected as the 17th President of the Philippines
Recently, the " ASEAN Flash Mob" was held online at the Dongbo Think Tank and the ASEAN College of Guangxi University for Nationalities. In the salon, two experts, Chen Bingxian, Ph.D. of the School of International Relations of Xiamen University /Nanyang Research Institute and Director of the Center for Philippine Studies at Guangxi University for Nationalities, and Ye Zhou, President of the Philippine South Asia Foundation and Foreign Affairs Commissioner of the Chiefs of the Philippine Aboriginal Council LUMAD KKK, discussed the above issues. Answered.
The successor of "Duterte's government line"
Throughout the entire campaign period, unlike other candidates who launched a series of detailed "revitalization plans," Marcos did not put forward too many specific political opinions, but just " "Unite" as a slogan, promising the Filipino people to create more jobs, attract more foreign investment, and improve agricultural facilities and digital infrastructure. In terms of diplomacy, it advocates an independent foreign policy. But it is worth noting that he is the only major candidate who has stated his intention to continue the Duterte government's line.
"Marcos will definitely continue some of Duterte's policies." Ye Zhou believes that it is recognized that the crux of the Philippines' poverty and backwardness lies in corruption and drugs. Duterte, known as the "political strongman", has launched a large-scale "anti-drug war" and related policies to uncover corruption problems along drug crimes, which are actually in the interests of the people. "The two new Philippine leaders, Marcos Jr. and Sarah , both have a common people complex and a desire to do things for the people. What the people long for is a stable life and a prosperous economy. Considering public opinion, Marcos Jr. It will naturally continue Duterte's line, and this move will also win him more support from voters," Ye Zhou added.
In Chen Bingxian's view, the important reason for the new president to continue Duterte's governance is that he has clearly seen the general trend of the Philippines in the future, that is, Filipinos need a strong president.
"Most Filipinos have a hero complex. A good president should work selflessly for the country and the people, rather than seeking power for personal gain. Regarding various existing social problems in the Philippines, a strong president may be 'Must' is also in line with the public's expectations," Chen Bingxian said, "That's why Marcos proposed during the election campaign to 'continue Duterte's policies', such as severely eradicating drug chaos, opposing violent crimes, and carrying out 'big policies'. Measures such as “Build, Build, Build” have actually won widespread public favor.”
Marcos Jr. will not fully accept Duterte’s “political legacy”
. However, Chen Bingxian also pointed out that Marcos Jr. will not fully accept it. Accept Duterte’s “political legacy.” "There will still be changes." He said that on the one hand, social problems in the Philippines have been improved to a certain extent under Duterte's "iron-fisted governance"; on the other hand, because of the consideration of the domestic opposition and rights defenders, opinions as well as the reaction of the West and the United States, so Marcos may not be as tough as Duterte in dealing with internal affairs issues, but will be more inclined to a moderate and neutral political style, that is, he will be more "considerate of the overall situation."
Promoting economic recovery is still the "biggest priority"
During the election, many people told the media that compared with the competition in the political arena, their biggest concern was how the new president would restore the economy, improve people's livelihood, and create more employment opportunities.It is not difficult to understand that the Philippine economy has been hit by multiple impacts during the epidemic. According to the latest data from ING Bank N.V., the Philippines' trade deficit has expanded to US$4.9 billion since the beginning of 2022. In addition, affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 3% against the US dollar. The national debt of 12 trillion has reached an all-time high, and rising prices have made many people complain.
How to promote the Philippine economic recovery in the post-epidemic era has become one of the important questions for the new president
Obviously, "post-epidemic economic recovery" is the primary "question" faced by Marcos after he came to power. According to Chen Bingxian’s prediction, Marcos Jr.’s economic policy may prioritize infrastructure and revitalizing agriculture.
"First, he will continue to promote the 'Build, Build, Build' infrastructure plan during Duterte's term, clear the obstacles that hinder the Philippines' economic development by strengthening infrastructure construction, and make small adjustments on this basis. and innovation; second, reduce the cost of people's living through the development of agriculture and alleviate the living pressure of the people at the bottom. At the same time, it is also necessary to regulate the degree of impact of domestic farmers on the international market because the Philippines' agricultural technology level is low and the annual import volume of rice. If it is not controlled, it may cause trouble to farmers and the public," Chen Bingxian explained.
When it comes to the Philippines’ economic development policies, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) has also attracted much attention, because this agreement will provide the Philippines with unparalleled opportunities, potential and markets. , providing the Philippines with an excellent opportunity to enter the Chinese market and contact Chinese capital. But at present, only the Philippines and Indonesia are the only RCEP member states that have not yet been approved and come into effect.
So what will be the fate of RCEP after the new president takes office?
Chen Bingxian analyzed that after taking office, Marcos will actively integrate the opinions of all parties, further accelerate Congress’s approval of RCEP’s entry into force in the Philippines, and will propose a series of adaptive plans for the agreement.
RCEP can ensure that cheaper raw materials and intermediate products enter the market. The picture shows the Philippine electronics factory
Chen Bingxian emphasized: "The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry believes that the benefits of trade development among its member countries after RCEP takes effect are obvious to all, and according to official calculations, by 2030, the Philippines GDP will increase by 0.9% in real terms due to RCEP and reduce the poverty population by 5%; domestic think tanks in the Philippines also believe that although the passage of RCEP may have an impact on traditional industries such as agriculture and manufacturing in the Philippines, if the opportunities behind the challenges can be taken advantage of "Opening the market to attract industry investment, while promoting the export of related trade products, and then forcing industrial upgrading, is a good strategy in the long run."
Fighting the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still one of the important tasks in the Philippines
In view of the economy of Marcos. The team is not yet fully formed, and we still don’t know its specific policies, but what is certain is that promoting economic recovery will be the top priority of the new president’s mission. As Chen Bingxian said: "Everything that meets the needs of Philippine social development and the expectations of the people is the starting point for Marcos to formulate relevant policies.
"Maximize the national interests of the Philippines"
In addition to focusing on urgent social governance, economic recovery, etc. Domestic affairs issues and how to handle foreign relations will also be a huge test for the Marcos government - the current international landscape is accelerating the evolution, geopolitical uncertainty is increasing, the competition between major powers in Southeast Asia is intensifying, and the influence of the Philippine election has already exceeded Its national borders. In this context, the foreign policy chosen by the new president is crucial to the future of the Philippines.
“Given the competitive relationship between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, it is natural that we cannot avoid it when we talk about Philippine diplomacy. Regarding its policy considerations towards the United States and China, this is a view that must be acknowledged and cannot be abandoned." Chen Bingxian pointed out that the relationship between Marcos and the United States started quite early, with the complicated history of the Marcos family. As the "second generation president", he actually did not have much praise for the United States or the Philippines-US relations. It can be expected that he will not return to the "one-sided" pro-American policy desired by the United States, and in the process of cooperation between the two countries, if the value demands of the United States conflict with the internal affairs of the Philippines, Marcos will not accept it. Personal grudges do not mean that Marcos Jr. must "choose sides" in politics. Considering the Philippines' military strength, security environment and other practical factors, the influence of the United States cannot be ignored in this country. The Marcos Jr. government will not be ignored in the short term. It will still maintain friendly relations with the United States, so being "neither anti-American nor pro-American" and maintaining dynamic changes on the basis of pursuing an independent foreign policy are its basic views on current relations with the United States
Philippine Vice President Robredo (left). ) is the strongest competitor of Marcos Jr. (right) in the current Philippine election.
Compared with other candidates who competed to show a tough stance towards China during the campaign, Marcos Jr. has a more friendly attitude towards China. On the South China Sea issue, Marcos Jr. has repeatedly advocated that "the South China Sea issue is not the entire Philippines-China relationship", let alone the results of the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration" as a prerequisite for dialogue; in terms of domestic economy, Marcos Jr. has repeatedly stated It will continue Duterte's "Build, Build, Build" plan, and indirectly revealed that the Philippines' national infrastructure cannot be separated from China and is "very willing to develop economic and trade exchanges with China."
But in Chen Bingxian's view, this does not represent Xiao Ma. Coase chose China between China and the United States. Chen Bingxian emphasized that it is important to note that Marcos is "friendly to China", but there is a difference in the degree of "friendly to China" and "pro-China". In economic development, and China can play an important role in these fields, developing Sino-Philippine relations will naturally respond to the public’s expectations of him. “In short, what Marcos pursues is both the triangular relationship between the Philippines and the United States and the Philippines and China. It maintains a special relationship with the United States and maintains good relations with China, pursuing an 'equidistance foreign policy'. "
In the face of complex domestic and foreign affairs questions, what exactly is a wise president? Some people emphasize the "power of democracy", while others care about "social development", and Marcos Jr.'s answer during the election was - — “I will do everything possible to maximize the national interests of the Philippines. "Maybe from this point of view, the new president has made a good start, and we just have to wait and see for the rest.
