According to Taiwanese media reports, after the completion of the island's "nine-in-one" election at the end of the year, the Democratic Progressive Party authorities will make major personnel adjustments. Gu Lixiong, currently serving as the secretary-general of the security department of the Taiwan authorities, may be appointed as Taiwan's defense. The head of the department became the first so-called "civilian defense minister" during Tsai Ing-wen's tenure. Although this report was quickly denied by Tsai Ing-wen's office and was evaluated as "ridiculous and untrue," the rumors also reflected many realistic games and political calculations within the Taiwan authorities.
In Taiwan media reports, three aspects of information were mainly disclosed:
First, this year's strategic security dialogue "Monterrey" meeting between the United States and Taiwan was attended by a delegation led by Gu Lixiong. In the past, this role was filled by Chen Wenzheng, the deputy secretary-general of the Taiwan Security Council and known as the "godfather" of the Taiwan military. This change shows that Gu Lixiong can already handle military affairs and interact with the United States, becoming a security and military adviser that Tsai Ing-wen can rely on.
Second, reports pointed out that Chen Wenzheng, who was deeply relied on by Tsai Ing-wen before, has always been capable of becoming the head of Taiwan's defense department. However, Chen currently has problems in his interactions with the United States and Hsiao Meiqin, the Taiwan authorities' representative in the United States. There was even a "either you leave or I leave" conflict with Xiao Meiqin, which caused Chen Wenzheng's political weight in front of Tsai Ing-wen to be less than before, and there was a tendency to be marginalized.
Third, reports believe that Tsai Ing-wen is focusing on the long-term "governance" of the DPP and wants to further change the current military and security operation model of the Taiwan authorities. Gu Lixiong, who is highly regarded by Tsai Ing-wen, is likely to become the first person of the DPP to hold real power. Head of Defense Department.
Of course, there are several aspects not mentioned in this report, which are also the realistic background of the rumors of personnel changes:
First of all, there are new trends and new requirements in US-Taiwan military ties. After the US-Taiwan "Monterey" meeting, news came out that on the issue of arms sales to Taiwan, the Biden administration was unwilling to strengthen Taiwan's air and naval equipment, but emphasized the need to strengthen Taiwan's "asymmetric warfare" "real-time combat capability", a list of important arms sales projects to Taiwan will be announced in the second half of the year. Before this meeting, the "U.S.-Taiwan Chamber of Commerce", which has long been involved in brokering business in arms sales transactions, sent a letter to the Biden administration, accusing the current new arms sales practices of being detrimental to Taiwan's defense.
A source revealed that the "U.S.-Taiwan Chamber of Commerce" and Chen Wenzheng interact closely. The Biden administration attributes the problem to Chen Wenzheng's lack of cooperation with Taiwan's defense authorities, which is likely to be the main reason why Chen Wenzheng, who must attend every year, was absent from this year's meeting. In the next two years, military collusion between the United States and Taiwan will become more frequent. Tsai Ing-wen, who obeys the American dialect, will definitely choose a candidate who satisfies the United States to serve as the head of Taiwan's defense department.
Secondly, Taiwan’s military has suffered frequent accidents in recent years and has suffered a loss of morale. According to Taiwan media statistics, the Taiwan military has had at least 6 serious accidents this year. In the more than six years since Tsai Ing-wen took office, she has adjusted three so-called "Ministers of Defense". A total of 18 serious accidents occurred in the Taiwan military, resulting in a total of 18 deaths, including Shen Yiming, who was the "Chief of Staff" of the Taiwan military at the time. Although the current head of the defense department, Qiu Guozheng, is strict in running the army and is a "second-skin" general who strictly assesses the turf of the company's camp and the scalps of officers and soldiers, it is simply impossible to stay in office for a long time due to frequent accidents.
Finally, in order to prevent "lameness", Tsai Ing-wen must make arrangements in advance. After the "nine-in-one" elections at the end of the year, there will be new changes in the factional power within the DPP. In order to avoid being "lame" and marginalized in advance, Tsai Ing-wen will definitely make arrangements in advance to firmly control the various powers. In your own hands. Tsai Ing-wen is originally employed in a "small circle" and even "makes some mistakes" just to gain "the sense of security and convenience of a young lady." Therefore, people like Gu Lixiong, who was Chen Shui-bian's "Queen's Lawyer" once gained Tsai Ing-wen's appreciation and became the most relied-upon security and military advisor of Tsai Ing-wen's administration in just a few years. Although Chen Wenzheng is also an important contributor to Tsai Ing-wen's election, after all, he comes from a "new trend group" and it is difficult to gain Tsai Ing-wen's absolute trust.
Officials with military backgrounds such as Qiu Guozheng must be appointed out of professionalism and governance traditions. To a large extent, they are just moving positions and cannot fit into Tsai Ing-wen’s "concentric circles" of employment and decision-making. circle. In this regard, control of military power will also be an important consideration for Tsai Ing-wen. Therefore, Gu Lixiong should be one of Tsai Ing-wen's "top choices" to serve as the head of Taiwan's defense department. At present, Tsai Ing-wen's office has denied that Gu Lixiong will take over as the head of Taiwan's defense department. After all, there is still a lot of time before the end of the year election, and the Taiwan authorities must consider both the election and the stability of military morale. But such rumors must not be groundless.
