Related indicators: Financing balance Financing balance represents the confidence of the majority of investors and is a double-edged sword for the stock market. A larger increase is not necessarily good, and a larger decrease is not necessarily negative. Whether to take advantage

related indicators: Financing balance

Financing balance represents the confidence of investors and is a double-edged sword for the stock market. A larger increase is not necessarily good, and a larger decrease is not necessarily bad. Whether to take advantage of the trend or to close when the gains are good; whether to stop losses in time or take advantage of the fire, and listen to Fun Stocks to explain to you in detail.

1. What is the financing balance?

Financing transactions mean that investors use funds or securities as pledges, borrow funds from securities companies to buy securities, and repay the loan principal and interest within the agreed period; and investors financing to buy securities from securities companies is called " Buy long”.

financing balance refers to the difference between investors' daily financing purchases and loan repayments. If the financing balance increases for a long time, it means that investors' mentality is biased towards the buyer and the market sentiment is strong, which is a strong market; on the contrary, if it decreases, it is a weak market.

When most people are bullish, they will borrow funds, thereby increasing the financing balance. These funds buy stocks, causing their prices to rise.

When most people are bearish, they will return the borrowed funds, so the financing balance becomes smaller. These funds are realized by selling stocks, often causing selling pressure and causing stock prices to fall.

Therefore, the total market financing balance represents, to some extent, the confidence in stock market trading.

2. Prediction of the trend of and the market by the financing balance

In order to study the relationship between the changes in the financing balance and the market trend, the financing balance and its change value are specially made into daily data to facilitate the intuitive judgment of stock investors. The picture below is a study of the daily chart from October 2015 to May 2016. It is found that the following situations: huge amount of financing for many consecutive days, huge amount of financing reduction, larger amount of financing increase, larger amount of financing reduction, and larger amount of financing reduction are all correct. The market trend has a strong predictive effect.

Daily Chart of Fun Stock Financing Balance

Below, from left to right, eight financing balances are interpreted:

1. When the bottom point rebounded, huge amounts of financing were raised for many consecutive days

On October 12, 2015, a huge amount of financing balance appeared The growth of and was 24.128 billion yuan. After a long period of sharp decline, the total financing balance increased by 54.01 billion yuan from the 8th to the 16th. It can be seen that the mentality of investors is biased towards the buyer, the market sentiment is strong, and the market outlook is predicted to rise. It is more likely, and as expected, on October 20, the market rose to a stage high, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3425.33 points, which was a strong market. At this time, investors are advised to enter boldly.

2. After a long rise, huge amounts of financing were raised for many consecutive days

On November 10, 2015, a huge amount of financing increased to 211.03 points, and the amount increased for many consecutive days. The market rose too fiercely, and most investors The craziest times are often also the most dangerous times. It is very likely that institutions will cut you off, and the risk of a market correction or even a sharp decline will increase. At this time, it is recommended that you just wait until the investment is good.

3. There was a sudden and huge reduction in financing at the high point

On December 25, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3627.91 points. After fluctuating at the high point for a period of time, there was a sudden and huge reduction in financing. On the 28th, the financing balance decreased by 21.201 billion yuan, which often indicates that the bad news has just begun. Risks continue to expand. Under normal circumstances, a huge decrease in financing balances represents a significant drop in investment confidence, which is likely to cause a vicious cycle. Individual stocks will fall across the board. Some investors' accounts will be forcibly liquidated after the market value of their accounts is reduced to a certain level, and then the stock prices will fall even further. Investment confidence has declined even further. At this time, it is recommended that investors stop losses in time.

4. Financing reduced after a long period of falling highs

html On January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell back to its lowest point of 2655.26 points. From the 22nd to the 28th, the total financing balance decreased by a large amount of 69.855 billion yuan for many consecutive days. The market had fallen for a long time before. The financing balance also decreased for a long time. At this time, market sentiment was extremely weak and investors suffered extremely serious losses. But the most dangerous time is also the safest time. When the majority of investors suffer the most serious losses and lack confidence, it is often a good time for institutions to build positions. This can be comprehensively judged by combining central bank funds and the flow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds.

5. Financing was reduced after a short period of time after the small high point fell.

html On February 29, there was a sudden reduction in financing at the small high point, and the market returned to the bottom. Although the time is relatively short, it can be predicted that the possibility of an increase in the market outlook is still high. .

6. Large amounts of financing continued to rise after a short period of rise

html On March 17, during the rising market, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded to a small high point, and a large amount of financing began to increase in a short period of time, indicating that the market is adjusting, and the market outlook can be optimistic, with the possibility of rising On the large side.

7. After a long period of rising, there was a sudden and large reduction in financing.

is the same as 3

8. After many days of shock, there was a large and continuous reduction in financing.

The decline time is neither too short nor too long. The trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has shrunk. The rebound in the market outlook is limited, and the decline is also limited. Shock is more likely.

summary:

1. After the market fell for a long time, the financing balance increased by a huge amount (more than 10 billion), or increased by a large amount for several consecutive days. Investors regained confidence and the market outlook was strong. At this time, they can take advantage of the trend to enter.

2. After the market has risen for a long time, the financing balance is still huge or continues to increase by a large amount. This is a time when investors are very crazy, and the market outlook is likely to fall sharply. At this time, it is better to be safe.

3. After the market has risen for a long time, the financing balance suddenly decreases by a large amount or continuously by a large amount, and the market outlook is likely to continue to decline. At this time, it is recommended to stop losses in time.

4. After the market has fallen for a long time, the financing balance suddenly decreases by a large amount or continuously, which indicates that the bottom may come. It is recommended to judge based on indicators such as the flow of funds from the Shanghai Stock Connect and central bank funds.

5. After the market fell for a short period of time, the financing balance decreased significantly, indicating that a periodic low may come, which can be judged comprehensively in combination with other indicators.

6. After the market rises for a short period of time, the financing balance increases significantly and the risk is high, so you can move in and out quickly.