Source / Securities Daily
Since this week, although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has repeatedly fluctuated around 3100 points, the balance of financing and financing has achieved a "three consecutive rises" and returned to 900 billion yuan, becoming the focus of market attention. According to statistics from Flush Data, the Securities Daily Market Research Center found that from March 18 to March 20, the balance of financing and financing increased for three consecutive years, reaching 902.219 billion yuan, a new high since July 11, 2018, and higher than Last Friday (March 15), it increased by 16.404 billion yuan, an increase of 1.85%.
In this regard, analysts pointed out that the Shanghai Stock Index is currently shrinking and consolidating around 3100 points, and the game of existing funds is still the main tone, while the overall valuation of A-shares is still low, and the risk and return are relatively high. In the early stage, short-selling institutions have already made some adjustments. Position and increase positions. In this context, as the funds with the sharpest sense of smell in the market, the recent layout of financing funds shows that the market is likely to fluctuate upward in the short term. Targets that are currently favored by financing customers are expected to achieve good performance in the future.
Specifically, as of March 20 this week, a total of 589 stocks underlying financing in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have achieved net financing purchases, of which 53 stocks have a cumulative net financing purchase of more than 100 million yuan. China During the Ping An period, the cumulative net purchase amount of financing ranked first, reaching 499 million yuan, CITIC Securities (391 million yuan), China Software (303 million yuan), Wuliangye (300 million yuan), Conch Cement (286 million yuan), Tianshan Shares (280 million yuan), Shunxin Agriculture (259 million yuan), People's Daily Online (221 million yuan), 2345 (216 million yuan), Wangsu Technology (212 million yuan) and Gree The cumulative net financing purchases of 10 two-financing target stocks such as electrical appliances (209 million yuan) during the period were also 200 million yuan and above. In addition, including China Pacific Insurance, Minsheng Bank, Robot, Changchun High-tech, Focus Media, etc. The cumulative net financing purchase amount of 42 stocks during the period also reached 100 million yuan or more, and the total net financing purchase amount was 8.913 billion yuan. The good performance of
may be an important reason for the influx of financing customers into the layout. Statistics show that among the above-mentioned 53 companies, 14 companies have disclosed their 2018 annual reports so far, and 13 companies have achieved year-on-year growth in net profit during the reporting period, including China Unicom (858.28%) and Tianshan Group (368.48%). ) During the reporting period, the net profits of the two companies increased by more than 100% year-on-year. Three companies, including Xincheng Holdings, Shunxin Agriculture, and Changchun High-tech, followed closely, and their net profits increased by more than 50% during the reporting period. In addition, 18 companies have disclosed performance forecasts for their 2018 annual reports. There are 13 companies with promising performance, including CITIC Guoan (748.20%), Zhifei Biotechnology (252.00%), and Western Construction (200.00%) Companies such as , OFILM Technology (150.00%), People's Daily Online (140.24%) and Conch Cement (100.00%) all expect their full-year net profits to double year-on-year in 2018. The favor of
financing customers has also contributed to the relatively good market performance of the above-mentioned stocks in the recent past. Statistics show that among the 53 underlying stocks with a net purchase of more than 100 million yuan in the above-mentioned financing, 46 stocks have experienced an increase in their share prices since this week. Accounting for more than 80%. Among them, Fudan Fuhua (29.75%), Western Construction (29.67%), 2345 (25.59%), Tianshan Shares (22.74%), China Software (17.97%), Guohai Securities (16.61%), Jinzheng Shares (16.24%), CITIC Guoan (14.03%), Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (13.66%), Tonghua Dongbao (12.61%), Kangmei Pharmaceutical (rights protection) (12.31%), Tongji Technology (12.12%), Kang Stocks such as Enbei (12.08%), People's Daily Online (10.40%) and Weichai Power (10.22%) performed relatively well, with cumulative gains during the period all exceeding 10%.
In terms of industry characteristics, in the three trading days from March 18 to March 20, all 28 Shenwan first-level industries achieved net financing purchases during the period, including pharmaceuticals and biology (2.363 billion yuan), non-bank finance The five major industries including (1.914 billion yuan), construction materials (883 million yuan), media (866 million yuan) and computers (833 million yuan) ranked first in cumulative net financing purchases during the period, all exceeding 800 million yuan. In addition, the cumulative net financing purchases in industries such as banking (750 million yuan), food and beverage (740 million yuan), chemicals (725 million yuan), machinery and equipment (600 million yuan), and nonferrous metals (547 million yuan) also averaged the same amount during the period. Reaching more than 500 million yuan.It is worth mentioning that the total net financing purchase amount of the large consumer sector represented by pharmaceuticals and biotech reached 3.102 billion yuan, showing that large consumer stocks are the most favored by financing customers.
Looking forward to the future trend, Guotai Junan Securities believes that the past two weeks are the best opportunity to "get on the train". Since the market started on January 4, 2019, the market development has gone through two stages. The first stage: from January 4 to mid-February, consumption dominates; the second stage: from mid-February to now, growth stocks develop rapidly. At present, the market is most likely ushering in the third stage: gradually turning to a market dominated by public funds, and value stocks may perform well. The fundamentals of this round of rising prices are that policy expectations have improved. The arrival of the intensive period of annual and quarterly report disclosures will only cause some investors with lower risk appetite to temporarily stay on the sidelines. As long as the policy guidance remains unchanged, the direction of market operation will not change. The small net outflow of northbound funds is more of a tactical wait-and-see. Judging from the continued increase in the proportion of A-shares included in MSCI, the continued inflow of foreign capital is a general trend.
Jufeng Investment Consulting believes that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will continue to see-saw around 3100 points on Thursday. In the afternoon, the rise of brokerage stocks has driven the Shanghai Index to a new high for the year, and the risk of short-term heavy volume and stagnant growth in the market has been eliminated. At present, the intensive annual report disclosure period is approaching. Blue-chip stocks have taken obvious actions to protect the market, and the sector has rotated quickly. Investors need to stay away from products with excessive short-term gains and can continue to pay attention to blue-chip stocks at the bottom.
