[Global Times reporters Wu Wei and Xie Rongbin] Editor's note: January 1, 2019 is the 40th anniversary of the mainland's publication of the " letter to Taiwan compatriots ". Over the past 40 years, cross-Strait relations have undergone earth-shaking changes - the three direct links, personnel exchanges and economic integration have been achieved, but they have also faced severe challenges from the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. In the past year, the Taiwan Strait has been far from peaceful. The United States continues to focus on playing the "Taiwan card", and US warships passed through the Taiwan Strait three times. At the same time, the situation on the island has changed drastically after the "nine-in-one" election, and Tsai Ing-wen is "lame" ahead of schedule. As Taiwan enters another "election year" in 2019, will the Green Camp continue to provoke ideological confrontation? Where will cross-strait relations go? The Global Times conducted an exclusive interview with Wang Zaixi, former vice president of the Association for Cross-Strait Relations and vice president of the National Association for Taiwan Studies, on these issues.
Wang Zaixi
Cross-Strait - There are still no conditions to end the military confrontation
Global Times: It has been 40 years since the mainland issued the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan" in 1979. The cross-strait three links mentioned in it have been realized, but the military confrontation between the two sides is still Not over yet. In your opinion, what opportunities and conditions are needed to end the military confrontation between the two sides?
Wang Zaixi: The "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan" issued by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress in 1979 was a historic event for cross-strait relations. It marked the beginning of the mainland's policy of "peaceful reunification" towards Taiwan. Before this, the mainland also had the idea of peacefully resolving the Taiwan issue, but the basic idea was "liberation by force." Over the past 40 years, we have made significant breakthroughs in our work with Taiwan, including three direct flights across the Taiwan Strait, mainland tourists entering the island, cross-Strait economic integration, and cross-Strait leaders’ meetings. However, the hostility between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has not ended yet.
I believe that ending cross-Strait hostilities and establishing a cross-Strait military mutual trust mechanism is a critical step before achieving peaceful cross-Strait reunification. If this issue is not resolved, it shows that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have not yet established political mutual trust. My opinion is that to end the military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait, two key conditions are needed: first, both sides need to have a high degree of consensus on adhering to the one-China issue; second, both sides of the Taiwan Strait must have the will to seek reunification. Judging from the current situation, the Kuomintang is reluctant to deal with the first item and cannot discuss the second item, while the DPP cannot do both. Therefore, the basic conditions for ending the military confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not yet in place. Efforts and time are still needed.
Global Times: Taiwanese media recently concluded that in 2018, mainland warships began routine patrols in Taiwan. How do you interpret such changes?
Wang Zaixi: Since 2018, the mainland navy and air force have successively sent H-6K fighter formations and ship formations including the Liaoning ship to patrol around Taiwan. There are several reasons for this: first, to declare territorial sovereignty. Because Taiwan is part of China's territory, our ships and aircraft patrolling around our territory is a normal move for us to defend our national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Second, warn and deter "Taiwan independence". In the more than two years since Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party came to power, she has never recognized "two sides, one China". The "Taiwan independence" separatist forces on the island have taken advantage of the favorable conditions in power to carry out "de-Sinicization" and "Taiwan independence" separatist activities step by step. The “unification and independence referendum” is arrogant. Under this situation, it is necessary to use military aircraft and ships to patrol to warn and contain the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces.
Third, carry out daily training. Sending military aircraft and ships to patrol around Taiwan is also a normal annual training activity for our navy and air force. Considering the complexity of the Taiwan issue, the possibility of a "Taiwan independence" separatist incident cannot be completely ruled out. In order to ensure the integrity of the country's territorial sovereignty, it is necessary for the military to conduct various training courses in peacetime.
The United States will focus on playing the "Taiwan card" in the future
Global Times: In 2018, U.S. warships passed through the Taiwan Strait three times. What signal do you think this sends?
Wang Zaixi: The frequent passage of U.S. warships through the Taiwan Strait is a well-planned and provocative military action against mainland China. The Taiwan issue is purely China's internal affairs, and how to resolve the Taiwan issue is a domestic matter for the Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.For many years, the United States has been interfering in the Taiwan issue, selling various advanced weapons to Taiwan, using the Taiwan issue to put pressure on us, and obstructing cross-strait reunification. In recent years, the United States has continuously sent warships through the Taiwan Strait, aiming to embolden the Taiwan authorities, provide protection for the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, and counter-contain China's measures to contain "Taiwan independence".
Global Times: Outsiders have different opinions on whether the current US government will focus on playing the "Taiwan card" in the future, that is, whether the Taiwan issue is an important point of dispute between China and the United States. What are your observations?
Wang Zaixi: After Trump won the election, the first thing he played against China was the "Taiwan card". He had a direct phone call with Tsai Ing-wen to congratulate her on being elected leader of the Taiwan region. This is a serious interference in China's internal affairs and a challenge to the bottom line of one-China. move. Therefore, the United States has always used Taiwan as an important bargaining chip and a trump card to contain China. I think the United States' launch of a trade war is just the beginning, and now it is engaged in a technology war. From a strategic perspective, the United States will continue to fight, but it will not fundamentally change its strategy of tough containment against China. In the future, the U.S. government will undoubtedly focus on playing the "Taiwan card", because for it, playing the "Taiwan card" is the cheapest compared to a trade war or a technology war, but it will touch China's sensitive nerves.
It is worth noting that after Trump came to power, he has made legal preparations in advance for the next step of focusing on playing the "Taiwan card." The U.S. Congress has merged President Reagan's "Six-Point Oral Commitment to Taiwan" and the "Taiwan Relations Act" into a new law. In March this year, Trump signed the "Taiwan Travel Act" and the "National Defense Authorization Act" to form a new law. Domestic laws that are contrary to the three joint communiqués between China and the United States. According to these three laws, the United States and Taiwan can conduct high-level visits, the United States can sell various weapons to Taiwan, and the United States and Taiwan can conduct military exchanges. Since this year, U.S. public opinion has been rumored that U.S. warships will dock at Taiwan ports and that the U.S. and Taiwan will cooperate in military exercises. We should attach great importance to and be vigilant about this.
"Taiwan independence" - Tsai Ing-wen is more covert
Global Times: The Democratic Progressive Party is currently in power for the second time on the island. In your opinion, what are the similarities and differences between Tsai Ing-wen and Chen Shui-bian in promoting "Taiwan independence"?
Wang Zaixi: Tsai Ing-wen and Chen Shui-bian are two backbones of "Taiwan independence" cultivated by Lee Teng-hui. They both adhere to the stance of "Taiwan independence", but there are obvious differences in their approaches. Chen Shui-bian belongs to "utilitarian Taiwan independence", while Tsai Ing-wen belongs to "ideal Taiwan independence". Chen Shui-bian was very radical. After being re-elected in 2004, he planned to complete "de jure Taiwan independence" within three years. In 2008, he launched a "referendum on joining the United Nations", but in the end it failed completely. Tsai Ing-wen learned from his lesson. After coming to power, she downplayed the color of "Taiwan independence" and engaged in "gradual Taiwan independence." Under the guise of "maintaining the status quo," she pushed forward step by step. The two of them also have different acting styles. Chen Shui-bian is more high-profile and public, while Tsai Ing-wen is more calm and restrained, only doing things but not talking. In a sense, Tsai Ing-wen is more deceptive, covert, and dangerous.
Global Times: What are the new features of this year's "nine-in-one" election on the island compared with several large-scale elections in the past? What inspiration does it have for us in dealing with cross-strait relations?
Wang Zaixi: This local election in Taiwan does have several distinctive features. First of all, atypical politicians are most supported and sought after by Taiwanese voters. For example, Han Guoyu is a "vegetable seller", Hou Youyi is a policeman, and Ke Wenzhe is a doctor. They are not typical politicians. Especially the "Korean-Yu phenomenon", he is a plain-looking man with a bald head, no prominent family background, and few resources. He single-handedly "airborne" Kaohsiung , with his unique Jianghu style, a box of braised pork rice for every meal, and a trip out. A bottle of mineral water, wear casual clothes to campaign; the speech is simple, straightforward, easy to understand, and goes straight to the topic, giving people a feeling of authenticity, straightforwardness, and no hypocrisy. Some comments ridiculed that his greatest advantage is that he does not look like the Kuomintang. Hanguo-yu has broken away from the traditional politicians' style of suits, gentle manners and slow speech, and is very down-to-earth. The second characteristic of
is "choosing people, not parties." Many candidates do not deliberately display partisanship and do not invite leaders of their own parties to stand up to support the election.To a large extent, voters do not pay attention to the political party background of candidates, but value their character and quality, which reflects that the island has become disgusted with the long-term vicious battle between blue and green parties. The third feature is that voters who have long supported the DPP have "revolted". The traditional supporters of the DPP are mainly farmers in central and southern China. Since the party did not pay attention to the economy and people's livelihood after taking power, it focused on ideology and did not fully take care of the interests of this group. They did not vote for the DPP in this election and used their votes to ruthlessly Teach the DPP a lesson. Many counties and cities in central and southern China that were originally governed by the Democratic Progressive Party have "turned from green to blue skies," especially the flipping of Kaohsiung, the base camp, which fully illustrates this point. After 22 years of elections, Taiwanese voters have become more and more pragmatic, that is, "replace people if they don't do well" and "elect whoever can bring benefits to the Taiwanese people."
This election also proves that mainland China’s policy towards Taiwan in recent years has been effective. Politically, we adhere to the one-China principle and will not give in. Economically, we promote cross-strait integration and development. Diplomatically, we compress Taiwan's international space. Militarily, we maintain deterrence against "Taiwan independence". Our policies directly benefit the people of Taiwan. This time, Han Kuo-yu publicly endorsed the "1992 Consensus " in Kaohsiung, a dark green territory, and expressed his desire to improve relations with the mainland. He was still elected with a high vote, which speaks volumes.
Mainland policy - it is difficult for both parties to make fundamental changes
Global Times: The DPP was defeated in the "nine-in-one" election. What kind of political situation do you think Tsai Ing-wen will face on the island during the remaining term of her term? Under this circumstance, will the Taiwan authorities make adjustments to cross-strait policies?
Wang Zaixi: After this disastrous defeat, the Tsai Ing-wen administration of the Democratic Progressive Party may have two choices: first, to stabilize its position, maintain political influence, and strive to regain the lost power in the next election; second, to retain The fundamentals are desperate, taking desperate risks, engaging in radical "Taiwan independence", and diverting attention. For example, promoting a referendum with the nature of "unification and independence", inciting dissatisfaction with the mainland, creating cross-strait tensions, escalating provincial conflicts, etc.
In either case, the DPP's basic line of "Taiwan independence" and its mainland policy of "maintaining the status quo" will not fundamentally change, but it does not rule out making some strategic adjustments. For example, in terms of cross-strait non-governmental exchanges, some restrictive measures may be relaxed, especially in agricultural products trade and mainland tourists traveling to Taiwan. Local counties and cities in Taiwan have expressed this demand after the election. This involves the vital interests of Taiwan compatriots. If the Taiwan authorities continue to tighten controls, votes will be further lost.
Global Times: The Kuomintang seems to have won a big victory in this election. What impact will this have on the future cross-strait policy concepts of its leadership? Will it become clear?
Wang Zaixi: After the KMT’s victory this time, I can’t see any signs of adjustment in its cross-strait policy philosophy. Whether it is the party chairman Wu Dunyi, or the former chairman of the Kuomintang Zhu Lilun, one of the "Two Suns", as well as Han Guoyu who stood out in this election, they basically adhere to the "no unification, no independence, no force" advocated by Ma Ying-jeou when he was in office. " policy and the basic concept of "maintaining the status quo" both acknowledge the "1992 Consensus", but place more emphasis on "one China, each with different expressions." On the contrary, Ma Ying-jeou himself proposed a "new three no" policy during the election, that is, "no rejection of reunification, no support for Taiwan independence, and no use of force." In fact, I think it’s just playing around with words and there’s no real change. He did not clearly regard reunification as the only option. "Not rejecting" only regarded reunification as one of the options. "Do not support Taiwan independence" is a formulation proposed by the United States, which is a step back from the original formulation of "oppose Taiwan independence".
The trend I see is that after the KMT won the election, a new round of power competition has begun around the nomination of candidates for the 2020 Taiwan region leadership election. In other words, overt and covert struggles have begun around the reorganization of supreme power. As soon as the election ended, Zhu Lilun said that "the senior leadership of the Kuomintang should be succeeded by the Mesozoic generation," and his target was very clear. In addition, the KMT’s top leaders also publicly disagreed on the timing of determining candidates.
Media comments on the island believe that in this Taiwan election, the majority of voters voted for the KMT because they hated the DPP and wanted to teach the DPP a lesson. Therefore, the KMT should stay awake, follow the trend, integrate internally, and regain the party's soul. , build consensus, put forward clear and positive new expositions, actively guide public opinion, and shape new public opinion, only then can it be possible to return to power.
