Regarding whether a series of controversies will affect the recall case, some media people bluntly said that the Green Camp has set up a total of three lines of defense this time, and now two have been breached. With the last one remaining, the DPP will face the last two choices.

Chen Baiwei, "legislator" of Taiwan's Foundation Progressive Party. (Photo source: Taiwan's "China Times")

Taiwan's Foundation Progressive Party "legislator" Chen Baiwei, who is facing a recall crisis, was recently exposed to the hit-and-run incident. At that time, many green camp politicians rushed to his Facebook to leave messages to cheer him up, but he Yesterday, he was found guilty of gambling again, which again aroused discussion among netizens. Regarding whether a series of controversies will affect the recall case, some media people bluntly said that the Green Camp has set up a total of three lines of defense this time, and now two have been breached. With the last one remaining, the DPP will face the last two choices. But no matter which choice you choose, there are structural problems. And it may become a domino effect of and .

Taiwan media person Facebook fan page "The Crow Against the Wind" wrote an article on Facebook on the 8th to analyze the recall case of "legislator" Chen Baiwei. He mentioned how to respond to the "Q deletion case", within the Democratic Progressive Party It must be very difficult. Because the difference between a recall case and an election is the number of votes. What counts in a recall case is turnout. Therefore, the best way to fight a recall is to keep turnout as low as possible. Only when it is determined that a high turnout is conducive to opposing the recall, or a confrontation is inevitable, the recalled party will make a high-profile response to the recall.

"Crow Against the Wind" pointed out that the DPP and Chen Baiwei have three lines of defense when facing the recall case. The first line of defense is the unfairness of resorting to removal. The strategic implementation of this line of defense included Chen Baiwei's deliberate lowering of voice, his request that "the simplicity of Taichung people should not be dismissed," and the policy of mourning soldiers. But after Yan Kuanheng joined the war, this line of defense has basically been broken through.

The second line of defense is plan comparison. Obviously, what the Democratic Progressive Party and Chen Baiwei are now focusing on is that "Chen Baiwei is better than Yan Kuanheng" and "when Chen Baiwei comes down, the underworld will make a comeback." Basically, it is a squid war and let local voters choose whether to replace Chen Baiwei with Yan Kuanheng. This second line of defense originally looked promising (but in fact, due to the special nature of the constituency, it may not be successful), but after repeated lies in the marijuana case, gambling case, and hit-and-run case, Chen Baiwei was shaped to "reform" "Youth Image" is almost completely finished. Now even if we purely compare the images of Yan Kuanheng and Chen Baiwei, the latter cannot have the upper hand at all. How to defend this second line of defense?

The third line of defense, "Crow Against the Wind" points out, is the duel between political parties. If the first two lines of defense fail, the DPP will have only two options left: one is to "abandon defense", and the other is to "dedicate all the party's efforts to save Chen Baiwei." But no matter which choice you choose, there are structural problems. If we abandon the defense, it may become a domino effect. What will happen in the next "referendum" and county and city elections?

"Crow Against the Wind" analyzed that if the DPP devotes all its efforts to save Chen Baiwei and turns into a duel between political parties, it is indeed possible to save Chen Baiwei. But what the DPP has to think about at this time is, what if it cannot be saved? In a situation that has evolved into a duel between political parties, a successful recall is a vote of no confidence in the DPP. Compared with a successful recall after abandoning the defense, a successful recall after all-in efforts to save the party may have a negative impact on the DPP. more serious.

"The Crow Against the Wind" further pointed out that the DPP has the inertia of "making mistakes", which often becomes the reason why the DPP has difficulty turning around after making wrong strategic choices. Just give two examples: erecting and extubation, both are the same. The DPP knows how to support its own people, whether they are right or wrong. However, they are very poor at finding opportunities to withdraw from the battle. They often wait until it is too late to withdraw, or they are unable to withdraw. What's worse is that even though the top wants to retreat, the bottom still continues to fight.

Finally, "Crow Against the Wind" emphasized that judging from the support that Chen Baiwei's Facebook has received from so many green camps in the past two days, it is unclear whether the superiors want to retreat, but now it is obvious that even if they want to retreat, these people have persisted to this point. It is also quite difficult to retreat. The fate of the Democratic Progressive Party is tied to Chen Baiwei.

Source: China Jingwei.com