Source: Shangguan News Original title: Han Guoyu’s first anniversary as mayor of Kaohsiung. In this regard, he “wins” Tsai Ing-wen. December 25 marks the first anniversary of Han Guoyu’s inauguration as mayor of Kaohsiung. From a grassroots citizen, he became the first Chinese Ku

Source: Shangguan News

Original title: Han Kuo-yu marks the first anniversary of his inauguration as mayor of Kaohsiung. In this regard, he "wins" Tsai Ing-wen

On December 25, Han Kuo-yu marks the first anniversary of his inauguration Kaohsiung City . From a grassroots citizen, he became the first Chinese Kuomintang mayor of Kaohsiung in 20 years, and then became a Kuomintang candidate for regional leadership. Over the past year, the "Korean Wave" set off by Han Kuo-yu on the island has continued to ferment, and he has become an unavoidable topic in the island's political arena.

Last Saturday, on the occasion of the first anniversary of Han Kuo-yu's inauguration, two marches, "Support South Korea" and "Stop South Korea", were held simultaneously in Kaohsiung. The difference is that the former was spontaneously organized by "Korean fans", while the latter was initiated and led by the Democratic Progressive Party.

There are less than 20 days before the 2020 regional leadership election. These two tit-for-tat demonstrations are a "long-distance race" to build momentum for the year-long election, ringing the "last lap" reminder bell. When the fierce battle between the blue and green sides was in full swing, the direct confrontation between "supporting South Korea" and "rejecting South Korea" was also called a "frontline battle" by the island's media.

These two demonstrations also exposed the reality that the blue and green camps on the island continued to fight fiercely during the election, and the society was seriously divided. This kind of fierce fighting and tearing is reflected in the estimates of the respective numbers of the two camps. The "Support South Korea" camp claimed that 350,000 people gathered in Kaohsiung from various counties and cities on the island to support Han Kuo-yu; the "Stop South Korea" camp claimed that 500,000 people participated in the rally. Both camps have disputed each other's headcounts. Whether the urban area of ​​Kaohsiung can handle the influx of 850,000 people in one day is also generally doubted by public opinion on the island.

In various election occasions on the island, it has become an unwritten rule to overstate the number of participants. It has also become a norm for the number of participants to be confusing and difficult to distinguish between true and false. In this regard, the Kaohsiung police also refused to "ask for trouble" - the local police stated that they would respect the organizers of both parties and would not estimate the number of marchers.

Why do both camps care so much about the number of participants? In particular, the "boycott Korea" demonstration led by the Democratic Progressive Party even exaggerated the number of people to more than ten times. Fundamentally, although these two events are related to Han Kuo-yu, with the election coming soon, they can be understood as a contest between "anti-Tsai" and "support of Tsai". The number of participants in these two demonstrations, the mood on the scene, and the composition of the participating people all reflected the momentum of Han Kuo-yu and Tsai Ing-wen to a large extent.

Although the Kaohsiung police did not announce the number of participants, some local media obtained statistics from a police station in Kaohsiung on the number of participants in each camp. The data showed that the number of participants in the "Stop Korea" march was about 25,000, and the number of participants in the "Support Korea" march was The number is about 60,000. In addition, some relevant departments in Taiwan estimated after observing in Kaohsiung that there were about 40,000 people who "boycotted South Korea" and 100,000 people who "supported South Korea." Although the specific data are different, it should be an indisputable fact that there is a gap of about 2.5 times between those who "stop South Korea" and those who "support South Korea".

The number of people marching in Kaohsiung is as confusing as it is difficult to distinguish between true and false. Everyone has their own opinions, and there are also polling results released by various polling agencies on the island.

Recently, many Green Camp polling agencies have released polling data. The poll results of "Beautiful Island Electronic News" show that Tsai Ing-wen's approval rate is 46.5%, far ahead of Han Kuo-yu's 21%; the latest poll of "Apple Daily" shows that "Tsai Laipei"'s approval rate is as high as 47.1 percentage points , the "national government support" is only 17.8%; while the blue-leaning Dongsen poll shows that Tsai Ing-wen's support rate is 43.7%, and the support rate for Han Kuo-yu is 32.6%.

However, if you study in depth, you can easily find the tricks. Some Taiwanese media pointed out that taking the poll data of "Apple Daily" as an example, if converted into a vote rate, Tsai Ing-wen will beat Han Kuo-yu with a vote rate of 66%. However, Ma Ying-jeou, who swept the island in 2008, received 58% of the vote. In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen, who was sure to win, only received 56% of the vote.

Is Tsai Ing-wen in 2020 really better than Ma Ying-jeou in 2008 and myself four years ago? The results of another poll unrelated to the election gave part of the answer - less than 30% of the people believed that the green camp's "governance" had made Taiwan better, 29% of voters felt that life was worse than before, and 30% of voters believed that Taiwan The overall development is not as good as before.

This is undoubtedly the strangest phenomenon of this election.Tsai Ing-wen, who despises public opinion and has high dissatisfaction with her administration, is "far ahead" in the polls. Judging from the two demonstrations, the number of people who "boycotted South Korea" was not as large as the DPP exaggerated, and the number of people who "supported South Korea" was not as small as reflected in the poll data. Who is faking it? The election results early next year will provide the answer.

However, at present, one Han Guoyu can attract so many people to travel, spend and stay in Kaohsiung. Local businesses and vendors in Kaohsiung said in interviews that their turnover has increased by more than half. As the mayor of Kaohsiung, he has partially fulfilled his promise of "when people come in, Kaohsiung will make a fortune" and has "won" Tsai Ing-wen, who randomly wrote empty promises in the election.