Fuanna: Capital increase, high-tech investment, taking the first step in foreign investment, market value is low, maintain buying
Category: Company Research institution: Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Liping Date: 2015-05-25
Investment points:
Event: The company in May On the 23rd, it was announced that it had completed the industrial and commercial registration procedures with 202 million yuan of its own capital to invest in Shenzhen Yuanzhi Fuhai No. 3 Investment Enterprise (Limited Partnership), with Fu Anna accounting for 14%. The company's board of directors approved the review on January 26 and plans to jointly establish Yuanzhi Fuhai No. 3 in Shenzhen with Yuanzhi Fuhai, Jiahe Investment, etc., with a total investment of 1.4 billion yuan. The investment direction is to increase investment in Hi-tech Investment Group. After completion, it will hold 20 % equity, partnership term is 5 years. The company announced last week that controlling shareholder Lin Guofang and others plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 11% in the next six months.
partners are rich in resources. The investment target Hi-tech Investment Group is one of the earliest guarantee companies in China and its shareholders have strong backgrounds.
(1) The company's partners have rich investment experience: Among them, the executive partner Yuanzhi Fuhai is a joint venture established by Yuanzhi Investment, a professional capital operation platform of Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Oriental Fuhai and Cinda Jianxin. Oriental Fuhai is a well-known investment management company in the industry. The company has a cumulative management fund of more than 10 billion yuan and more than 130 investment projects. It is the best domestic PE institution in 2014. We expect that the company will also cooperate with partners in other business areas in the future.
(2) The shareholder background of Hi-Tech Investment Group, the subject of the capital increase, is strong. This capital increase and share expansion is a pilot project for the mixed ownership reform of state-owned enterprises in Shenzhen: the top four shareholders of Hi-Tech Investment Group are Shenzhen Investment Holding Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Finance and Financial Services Center. , Shenzhen Yuanzhi Investment Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Small and Medium Enterprises Service Agency, achieved revenue of 700 million yuan and net profit of 400 million yuan in 2013. Hi-tech Investment insists on providing financing services to small and medium-sized enterprises. It has supported a number of high-tech enterprises such as Huawei, BYD, and Han's Laser, and has created a complete financing service chain from "start-up stage to IPO" and is known as an "innovative technology enterprise". Incubator” and “Technology Park without Walls”.
The home textile industry has sufficient momentum for transformation, and smart home and big home models are the future development trends. (1) The leading companies in the home textile industry are deploying smart homes one after another, and the company is expected to have expectations in the future: the company has approximately 1.3 billion yuan of available funds (2014 annual report of 965 million in cash + 350 million in financial management), considering that both Luolai Home Textiles and Mengjie Home Textiles are related to He Taida's strategic cooperation has entered the smart home field, among which Luolai Home Textiles has established 5 industrial funds or subsidiaries. We believe that cross-border cooperation is the future trend of the industry. We predict that the company’s future layout may include popular directions in the industry such as smart home and cross-border e-commerce. (2) The big home furnishing strategy is progressing smoothly, with a two-pronged approach of opening large stores and expanding categories: the company's affordable brand Xinerle has transformed into a home store model (similar to MUJI and ZARAHOME) and is expected to open 20 stores within the year. In addition, the company is steadily expanding its categories. Ceramic tiles are expected to be launched in the second half of the year, finished wardrobes are expected to be available next year, and wallpapers are expected to be launched within the next two years.
company is a valuation depression in the home textile industry. The current market value is obviously underestimated. It is expected that the pace of external mergers and acquisitions will accelerate in the future, and the buy rating is maintained. We maintain the forecast of EPS of 0.47/0.52/0.58 in 2015-17, corresponding to PE of 32/29/26 times. Currently in the home textile industry, Luolai Home Textiles has a market value of 20 billion yuan (PE of 44 times in 2015), and Mengjie Home Textiles has a market value of 10.5 billion yuan. (PE 60 times in 2015), Fuanna’s market value is only 12.9 billion yuan (PE 32 times in 2015). We believe that the company is in a valuation depression and is obviously undervalued. Taking into account the lifting of the ban on the shares of major shareholders, there will be strong motivation demands in the future. The quality of this equity investment project is excellent, and it is the first step towards external investment. There is expected to be more cooperation with partnerships in the future, which is worth looking forward to. Maintain buy, and it is expected to be 50% + space.
Intercontinental Oil and Gas: The implementation of the employee stock ownership plan may be slightly later than expected. It is recommended to seize the buying opportunity
Category: Company Research Institution: Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. Researcher: Lin Kaisheng Date: 2015-05-25
5 22nd Company Announcement, Board of Directors The revised draft of the employee stock ownership plan announced on November 26, 2014 was reviewed and approved and will be implemented after approval at the extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on June 8.
The main changes involved in this revised draft of the employee stock ownership plan are as follows: 1) Changes in participants and number of participants: the upper limit of the total number of participants is adjusted from the original 250 to 150. The company’s Vice President Chen Xueyun replaces the former Vice President Lu Ke who has resigned. List of employee shareholding objects. At the same time, the shareholding ratio of senior executives in the plan will be increased from the original 37.5% to 40%; 2) The size of the shares involved in the employee stock ownership plan will be changed: the total capital of the fixed employee stock ownership plan will remain unchanged at 500 million yuan, and the upper limit of the stock size involved will be increased from 40 million shares (accounting for 3.28% of the company's total share capital) was changed to 30 million shares (accounting for 1.7% of the company's total share capital), mainly due to the increase in the company's stock price and the expansion of the company's total share capital from 1.22 billion shares to 1.74 billion shares after the company's non-public offering in 2014; 3) The name of the asset management plan was changed, and the duration of Plan B for ordinary employees was extended from 18 months to 24 months; 4) The custodian of the asset management plan was changed from Ningbo Bank to Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank.
On December 15, 2014, the company's extraordinary shareholders' meeting reviewed and approved the "Company's Employee Stock Ownership Plan (Draft)". According to the draft, the employee stock ownership plan should complete stock purchases within 6 months after being approved by the shareholders' meeting. In view of the company's planning of major events, the company's stock was suspended from December 24, 2014 to April 7, 2015, and then entered the information sensitive period for the 2014 annual report and the first quarter report of 2015. Considering that too short an investment period is not conducive to In order to implement effective investment strategies, the company proposed to postpone the implementation of the employee stock ownership plan through a vote of all shareholders. If approved by the shareholders' meeting, the revised employee stock ownership plan will be implemented within 6 months from June 8, 2015.
According to the "Guiding Opinions on the Pilot Implementation of Employee Stock Ownership Plans by Listed Companies" issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in June 2014, "If the secondary market purchase method is used to implement the employee stock ownership plan, the employee stock ownership plan management agency shall review it at the shareholders' meeting. Within 6 months after the adoption of the employee stock ownership plan, the purchase of the underlying stocks shall be completed according to the arrangements of the employee stock ownership plan” and “When a listed company announces and implements an employee stock ownership plan, it must strictly abide by market trading rules and comply with the provisions of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Regulations prohibiting buying and selling of stocks during the information-sensitive period.” Assume that the company's semi-annual report and third quarterly report are released on August 31 and October 31 respectively. Since the 30 days before the announcement of the regular report is a sensitive period, it means that the company can implement the employee stock ownership plan in the short term. From September 8th to July 31st and September 1st to September 30th, we judge that the company will most likely implement it before July 31st, which is slightly delayed than the market expectation of June 15th.
We emphasize again: the company is the best target of the “Belt and Road” in the A-share oil and gas field. Assuming that the company completes the acquisition of Keshan Company and CNR Company in July 2015 (assuming that the acquirers are both Ma Teng Company), and does not consider the contribution of the original real estate business after 2015, the company's EPS from 2015 to 2017 (before transfer to increase and dilution) will be maintained. ) are 0.40, 0.92 and 1.15 yuan respectively. The company's current stock price is 17.85 yuan, corresponding to 15-17 PE of 44, 19 and 16 times. It maintains a "buy" rating and a target price of 25 yuan.
Shanghai Merlin: Shanghai Food State-owned Enterprise Reform Pioneer The theme of state-owned enterprise reform in the second half of the year is expected to usher in catalysis Reiterate Buy
Category: Company Research Institution: Qilu Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Hu Yanchao Date: 2015-05-25
Investment Points
Event: Last Friday Shanghai Merlin's stock price reached the daily limit, reaching a record high of 16.49 yuan.
Our recommendation logic for Shanghai Merlin remains unchanged. For details, please refer to the annual/quarterly strategy and the in-depth report on March 27 "Major shareholders inject relevant assets, the meat aircraft carrier sets sail". We have always emphasized that the reform of state-owned enterprises is the key to food in 2015. One of the most important investment lines in the beverage sector, the recent surge has not fully reflected the company's investment value, and the "buy" rating is reiterated. At the same time, pay attention to the catalysts: the resumption of trading of Bright Dairy at the end of June, as well as the top-level design plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises in the second half of the year (the most important policy for the reform of state-owned enterprises) and a series of supporting policies are expected to be accelerated, which will bring continuous "windows" to the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Since our recommendation in July last year, the logic of being optimistic about Shanghai Merlin has always been the efficiency improvement brought about by the state-owned enterprise reform process. In 2015, Shanghai Merlin's state-owned enterprise reform took a solid step, and the beef and pork related assets of the actual controller Guangming Group will be injected into the listing. The company aims to build a Chinese meat aircraft carrier enterprise.On March 27, 2015, the company announced that it plans to inject beef and pork-related assets under the actual controller Guangming Group. After the asset injection, the company's revenue will increase by 3 billion to 4 billion yuan, and the category will be further expanded from pork to beef and mutton and other products. Meat-like products, and completed the layout of upstream and downstream integration, truly forming a large meat sector, while the breeding adopts a moderate scale and controls the breeding risks.
At the same time, the new management is ambitious. Former Dairy Milk Group CEO Shen Weiping has become the president of Shanghai Merlin, and plans to strengthen incentives, integrate channels, and strengthen the industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions. The new three-year development plan has shifted from pursuing scale and speed to focusing on quality and efficiency. We estimate that the target revenue in 2018 will be 25 billion yuan and the net profit will exceed 400 million yuan. We plan to cultivate 11 business sub-units with an output value of more than 2 billion yuan. After the asset injection of
is completed (expected to be completed by the end of June), the revenue from 2015 to 2017 is expected to be 16.0, 19.5, and 22.4 billion yuan. Calculated based on the 2015 price-to-sales ratio of 1.2 times, the target market value is 19.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 20.4 yuan, reiterated "Buy". Shanghai Merlin has a large number of long-standing and high-quality brand assets. Currently, ROE is only 1/4 of Shuanghui, and its net profit margin is less than 1/6 of Shuanghui. There is huge room for improvement in the future. After the asset injection, the company is expected to achieve sales revenue of 16.0, 19.5, and 22.4 billion yuan from 2015 to 2017, corresponding to EPS of 0.18, 0.24, and 0.34 yuan respectively.
risk warning: food safety issues, injection progress not up to expectations.
Kingfa Technology: New materials giant focuses on supply chain finance business and raises rating to buy
Category: Company Research Institution: Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. Researcher: Ye Peipei Date: 2015-05-26
A rare new material platform company in China : The company is one of the few new material platform companies in China that attaches great importance to product and technology research and development. The proportion of research and development expenses in revenue is more than 4% all year round (if trade income is excluded, the actual proportion will be higher). After years of accumulation, the company has formed a good situation with mainly modified plastics and steady advancement of a variety of new materials (carbon fiber, high-temperature nylon, degradable plastics).
modified plastics business will enjoy the dual flexibility of gross profit margin improvement and production capacity release. 90% of the production cost of modified plastics is raw materials (various synthetic resins), and the price of synthetic resins is highly correlated with the price of crude oil. Benefiting from the decline in procurement costs and the lag in price transmission to the downstream, the gross profit margin of the company's modified plastics business has improved significantly year-on-year since the first quarter of 2015. In addition, the company will continue to release the production capacity of its production bases in multiple regions in China in 2015 (including the Wuhan base that will start construction in 2015). The company will benefit from the dual flexibility of gross profit margin improvement and production capacity release. There are explosive opportunities in
’s new materials business. After years of technology accumulation and market development, the company's many new material varieties have experienced leap-forward development since 2014 and have gradually entered the harvest period. Among them, high-temperature nylon is expected to double its growth in 2015, and degradable plastics have already formed a position advantage after being piloted in 16 provinces and cities across the country; carbon fiber composite materials have been applied on a large scale in the rail transit market. The company's advantages as a new materials platform enterprise will begin to be gradually reflected.
A financial platform with supply chain finance as its core is gradually taking shape. The market capacity of the plastics industry exceeds one trillion yuan, and most upstream and downstream companies are small in scale and lack the ability to withstand the risk of price fluctuations. Under the current background of increasingly prominent financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises, supply chain finance has broad room for development. The company has fully launched its supply chain finance business in April 2015, relying on its rich upstream and downstream customer resources and bank resources to actively explore the diversified development of supply chain finance. At present, the company has developed a variety of business models and is committed to helping downstream customers reduce financing costs and reduce the risk of price fluctuations. In addition to supply chain finance, the company also provides customers with a variety of services such as warehousing logistics, futures delivery, and warehouse receipt exchange. The company's financial platform centered on supply chain finance is gradually taking shape, and the future growth space is worth looking forward to.
raised its rating to "buy": We estimate that the company's net profit ratio for 15-17 years will be 9.33/1.139/1.370 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.36/0.44/0.54 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 36X, 29X, and 24X in 2015-17. As a leading enterprise in modified plastics, the company will enjoy the dual flexibility of gross profit margin improvement and further release of production capacity in 2015; and the new materials business has gradually entered the harvest period after years of accumulation.In addition, the company is building a diversified financial platform around supply chain finance, which will not only help the company form new profit growth points, but also expand the company's influence and voice in the industry by integrating upstream and downstream resources in the plastics industry, thereby achieving greater control over its main business. Feed back. We believe that the company is expected to become a new chemical materials giant driven by both industry and finance. Taking into account the good growth prospects of the company's various businesses and the company's determination to actively transform, we upgraded the company's rating to "buy".
Tongding Internet: The mobile Internet team enters the core management and maintains the "buy" rating
Category: Company Research Institution: Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Junjie Date: 2015-05-26
The company's shareholders meeting reviewed and approved the non-public issuance plan .
Ms. Qian Huifang succeeded the chairman, and Mr. Song Jun was elected to the company's board of directors. The
shareholders meeting reviewed and approved the fixed-issuance plan to accelerate the issuance process, and the mobile Internet team entered the core management team to demonstrate the company's determination to transform. The company announced the scheduled issuance plan on April 28, and it took less than a month to promote the evaluation of the acquired assets and the resolution of the shareholders' meeting, which once again reflects the company's strong system execution and also enhances the company's expectations of accelerating the additional issuance process. In addition, Ms. Qian Huifang was elected as the chairman of the board of directors to replace Mr. Shen Xiaoping, Mr. Song Jun was elected to the company's board of directors, and key team members of the company's mobile Internet strategic transformation entered the core management team, once again reflecting the company's determination to transform the mobile Internet field.
company relies on its offline advantages to enter the mobile Internet field, with sufficient core competitive advantages and broad development prospects. The company's traditional business is optical fiber and cable, and its future development direction is to expand into the upstream optical rod business and overall solution fields. General Manager Mr. Jiang Xiaoqiang has rich experience in the field of optical communications and outstanding technology. We are optimistic about the traditional business moving upstream and into overall solutions. Increased profitability brought about by field expansion. The steady development of traditional businesses provides a stable performance foundation for the company's transformation and continues to expand the company's transformation advantages. The company relies on offline cooperative relationships with operators to transform mobile Internet with communication data as the core. We believe that the company's strategic transformation has broad prospects. First, the user penetration rate of communication data is high and the foundation is huge; secondly, the establishment of communication data based on communication data The mobile Internet platform has huge room for expansion in the future. The strategic transformation of
company is mainly completed through acquisitions and mergers, opening up the channel for increasing market value. The company's mobile Internet transformation will mainly be completed through capital operations and acquisitions. The company's management has actively prepared for the mobile Internet transformation in recent years. The controlling shareholder has carried out a large number of equity pledges and project reserves. The company has recently cooperated with Huatai Ruilin Equity Investment Fund. Development of investment projects for strategic transformation. The company has a wide range of areas for mobile Internet expansion in the future, and education, medical care and data security that are closely related to residents' daily lives are likely to become the company's business areas in the future. There is huge space for
Traffic Controller to cooperate with China Mobile and backward operations, and there is broad space for Anxun and Shuyun to develop. Ruiyi Information is currently actively cooperating with China Mobile. Cooperation with China Mobile will greatly enhance the user base and open up room for growth. With the improvement of residents' DOU, the company's forward traffic management space is huge. Traffic Manager will explore backward traffic management this year and open up a large market for mobile data traffic management. The market space is huge. Nanjing Anxun carries out big data precision marketing and financial credit reporting business, and Hangzhou Shuyun supply chain has rich data resources, with vast space for exploration in the future.
is firmly optimistic and maintains a "buy" rating. We maintain our previous profit forecast. The traditional business will achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 164 million in 2015. Corresponding to a reasonable market value of 6.56 billion yuan. In 2015, the net profit contributed by Mobile Internet was approximately 60 million yuan. Since 2016, the net profit of Mobile Internet has been 420 million yuan. In 2017, the net profit of mobile Internet was 1.8 billion yuan. The reasonable market value of mobile Internet is 54 billion yuan. Maintain the target market value space of 60.56 billion yuan and maintain the "buy" rating.
Xin Litai: The shareholding reduction plan is completed and the strategic layout is expected to accelerate and maintain the "buy"
Category: Company Research Institution: Qilu Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Xie Gang Date: 2015-05-25
2015.5.24, Company Announcement: Major shareholders reduce holdings The plan is completed, and the funds from the reduction will be used to establish a pharmaceutical industry investment fund (estimated to be about 1 billion yuan) to cooperate with the listed company's strategic layout of innovative biomedicine and medical devices, high-end medical services, Internet marketing and medical services, etc. The controlling shareholder currently plans to establish a new business in Shenzhen The city's Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Cooperation Zone is preparing to establish relevant equity investment companies to specifically operate pharmaceutical industry investment funds. This matter is currently being promoted.
comment: We believe that the completion of the shareholding reduction plan, on the one hand, marks the rapid start of the company's strategic layout, and on the other hand, it also releases the factors that suppress the stock price in the short term. This move reflects that major shareholders attach great importance to the long-term strategic layout of listed companies, while improving the efficiency of capital use and laying a project foundation for the company's long-term development.
We are the first securities firm in the market to emphasize "paying attention to the company's strategic layout adjustment". We once again remind investors to pay attention to the company's strategic layout starting from the second half of 2014 and maintain a "buy" rating. “Taijia” bidding competition, cardiovascular product pipeline (bivalirudin + allisartan medoxomil + stent) gradually increased in volume, and intervention in new areas (innovative biopharmaceuticals) formed the basis for the market’s judgment of Xinlitai (002294) in 2014 Three key points.
Institutional investors have been very entangled between EPS (Taijia's growth rate slows down) and valuation improvement (entering new areas). In the third quarter report of 2014, we pointed out that it is necessary to shift our judgment on the company from focusing on the "Taijia" tender, the Guangdong model, and the lower-than-expected volume of cardiovascular pipelines to focusing on the changes that are taking place in the company's strategic layout. . The advancement of the company's strategic layout has once again verified our judgment.
We believe that the current stock price of the company corresponds to 29PE in 2015, which is far lower than the level of 40PE of comparable companies. It has reflected all the bad expectations of Taijia and subsequent product lines. We believe that the current stock price has a safety margin, and the company’s current strategic adjustments will gradually Open up space for long-term growth.
From the product and R&D side, "strong certainty of cardiovascular product line performance growth + construction of innovative biopharmaceutical platform" has improved the company's most advantageous product line (R&D platform) in the short, medium and long term; on the sales side, the company has nearly a thousand people Excellent academic promotion, in the process of promoting new products, is expected to replicate the success of "Taijia". With the launch of the tender in 2015, we expect that the company's product line will develop rapidly and help the company's performance grow rapidly.
's external expansion continues to advance, and it is optimistic that the company's mergers and acquisitions in the fields of cardiovascular product echelon improvement, medical services, Internet +, new antibiotics and other fields will be gradually implemented.
The improvement of cardiovascular product echelon, medical services, Internet+, new antibiotics, etc. are the strategic merger and acquisition directions determined by the company. In the 2013 annual report, the company proposed an expansion plan in the medical service field, and in the 2014 annual report, it proposed an expansion plan in the Internet field. The company has an outstanding vision in mergers and acquisitions (bivalirudin, allisartan, and biological innovative drugs are all the company's major projects) , the management adheres to a cautious, active and steady expansion plan. We predict that as relevant projects continue to advance, the company will gradually implement new projects in external mergers and acquisitions in 2015, creating an advantageous position in the company's entire industry chain layout in the field of chronic diseases. .
Based on the analysis of the company's ongoing strategic layout changes, we once again reiterate the "buy" rating of Xinlitai (002294). The "Taijia" bidding competition, the gradual expansion of the cardiovascular product pipeline (bivalirudin + allisartan medoxomil + stent), and the intervention in new areas (innovative biopharmaceuticals) have formed three key points for the market's judgment of Xinli Tai. Institutional investors have been very entangled between EPS (Taijia's growth rate slows down) and valuation improvement (entering new areas). What we want to emphasize is that the judgment of the company at this time must shift from focusing on the "Taijia" bidding, Guangdong model, lower than expected cardiovascular pipeline volume, etc., to focusing on the changes that are taking place in the company's strategic layout. .
profit forecast: With the steady growth of "Taijia", the company is expected to maintain a net profit growth of 20-30% in the next three years.Considering the uncertainty of the current performance contribution of the biological platform, we maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2015-2016 will be 3.475 and 4.179 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 20.5% and 20.3% respectively, and the net profit attributable to listed companies will be 13.38 , 1.707 billion yuan, with growth rates of 28.35% and 27.62% respectively; the corresponding EPS (after ex-rights) in 2015-16 was 1.28 and 1.63 yuan. Taking into account the sustained profitability of the company's flagship products, the performance launch of new products and the expected layout of the entire industry chain, we give the company a valuation of 40-45 times in 2015, with a target price of 51.2-57.6 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 15-16 years respectively. 28 times and 22 times. As an excellent white horse stock with steady growth and continued expansion expectations, it is seriously undervalued. It is recommended to actively "buy".
Risk warning: Risks of bidding policy for essential drugs, risks of competitors and substitute varieties quickly seizing the market, risks of mergers and acquisitions not progressing as expected
Kangyuan Pharmaceutical: Steady performance and active exploration of new fields and new models. Increase "buy"
2015.5.18 We remind investors: As a stock with steady growth, the company is undervalued and has an active strategic plan. Investors are advised to pay attention. In order to facilitate investors to understand the company’s latest strategic plan, we organized an investment event on May 22, 2015, when the company held its shareholders’ meeting. The reporter had in-depth communication with the management about this. The company's management focused on the company's sales progress in traditional business, biopharmaceuticals, big health, and Internet e-commerce layout.
comment: This week (2015.5.18-22) the company's stock price has risen by more than 18%, indicating that investors gradually recognize the positive changes taking place in the company. Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, as a traditional Chinese medicine company with solid fundamentals, is actively exploring product upgrades and research and development, the layout of the health industry, and Internet e-commerce. We believe that while strengthening internal cultivation, the company is gradually liberalizing its thinking and focusing on innovative traditional Chinese medicine. The company is actively exploring new fields and new models, and is expected to build an excellent pharmaceutical company with traditional Chinese medicine + biological medicine + innovative business model in the next 3-5 years. Based on the company's solid fundamental growth and active and open strategic plan, we raised our "buy" rating.
In 2015, driven by "drug launch re-evaluation + sales incentives + blank coverage improvement", we estimate that Reduning is expected to sell about 1.5 billion yuan, with a YOY of about 20%. With the advancement of medical reform in 2015, the market believes that traditional Chinese medicine injections are facing greater price reduction pressure, such as Reduning injection, which has greater pressure on a high base. Based on the following points, we believe that the company's Reduning injection is still expected to maintain its price from 2015 to 2017. 15-20% growth; 1) Reliable quality, clear efficacy, recognized by Western medicine. Kangyuan Pharmaceutical's Reduning Injection completed 153 evidence-based medical studies on the treatment of dengue fever in 2014. In 2015, it plans to continue to carry out marketing re-evaluation with antipyretic as the core, and at the same time strengthen clinical guidance and professional publicity. Promote product volume. 2) Strengthen sales incentives and expand the private hospital market. The proportion of services provided by private hospitals in medical institutions continues to increase. The company plans to provide active preferential policies to strengthen sales to private hospitals. We expect that private hospitals will become a new incremental market for the sales growth of Reduning. 3) Strengthen multi-department development and improve blank coverage. At present, about 70% of Reduning's sales come from pediatrics. We will continue to strengthen the development and promotion of multi-department development with antipyretic as the core. We expect that the multi-department development part is expected to maintain a growth of more than 30%. The company has insufficient hospital coverage in Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Hunan, Hubei and other regions, and plans to continue to strengthen hospital coverage in these areas to ensure the sustainability of the growth of Reduning.
Yousejin (Ginkgo diterpene lactone meglumine injection) sales In the first year of substantial progress, sales in 2015 are expected to exceed 100 million yuan. Yosegin has always been a product that investors have focused on. Due to the slow progress of bidding in 2013-14, the company's products have not been able to achieve large-scale sales. We believe that with the completion of the company's 6,000 safety trials and the advancement of hospital admissions, 2015 It is expected that there will be 10-15 hospital customers with monthly sales of 1,000 tubes per year, ensuring sales of about 100 million yuan in 2015. Reasons for the rapid advancement of market sales: 1) Guaranteed quality, conducive to academic promotion: 6,000 safety trials were completed in 2014, and the company launched another 3,400 neuroprotection evidence-based medical trials in 2015.2) In 2014, a large customer base was established in the market: in 2014, Yusekin sales formed 2-3 hospitals with over 200 branches. At the same time, Jiangsu self-operated and developed 40 hospitals, and is expected to complete the development of 90 hospitals in 2015. The target is that with the advancement of new bidding work at the end of 2015, the volume is expected to increase rapidly. 3) Medical insurance work continues to advance: The medical insurance work in Jiangsu and Sichuan has started
strategic direction details, and it is expected to build a platform enterprise of traditional Chinese medicine, biological medicine + big health + Internet e-commerce in the next 3-5 years. At the group level, the company actively explores new fields and new models, and hopes to be included in listed companies at the right time. 1) Strengthen R&D and mergers and acquisitions in the field of biopharmaceuticals: Based on the analysis of the company's own resources and R&D advantages, the group level has actively carried out exploration in the field of biopharmaceuticals. We expect that in the next three years, a biopharmaceutical platform with certain core competitiveness will be formed and included in the listing. company. 2) Expansion of the big health field: The group level is actively carrying out product sorting and industrial promotion work, and at the same time making attempts in the field of big health services. We predict that in the next 3-5 years, it is expected to form a certain scale in the big health field (health examination, elderly care, etc.) scale, include listed companies at the appropriate time, and enhance the competitiveness of the listing platform. 3) Internet e-commerce exploration: The company's 2014 annual report mentioned the exploration in the field of Internet e-commerce. We expect that with the company's own rich offline resources in gynecology, orthopedics and other fields, it is expected to achieve resource integration in the next 1-2 years. Gradually build the company's new marketing model and ecosystem.
profit forecast: With its rich product line and the advancement of M&A expansion, we believe that the company has long-term investment value. In terms of profit forecast, the company's revenue from 2015 to 2017 is expected to be 2.977, 3.522, and 4.323 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 16.1%, 18.3%, and 22.7% respectively. The net profits attributable to the parent company are 3.86, 479, and 582 million yuan respectively, year-on-year. The growth rates are 20.7%, 24.23 and 21.43%, corresponding to EPS of 0.75, 0.93 and 1.13 yuan in 2015-17. The target price is 35.3-39.8 yuan, corresponding to 47-53 times PE in 2015 (the industry average is about 57PE). Upgraded to "buy" rating.
Risk warning: Risks of bidding policy for essential drugs, early approval of competitor varieties, risks of new product promotion not meeting expectations
BBK: The big picture creates a large market value, maintain the "buy" rating
Category: Company Research Institution: Shenwan Hongyuan Group Shares Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Junjie Date: 2015-05-21
The company announced today: The company’s board of directors elected Mr. Zhong Yongli as the company’s vice chairman, with the term from May 20, 2015 to April 17, 2017.
’s election of the owner of Nancheng Department Store as vice chairman reflects the ambition and pattern of the actual controller of the company. The company's announcement of electing the original actual controller of Nancheng Department Store as vice chairman echoes the announcement on April 24 that the chairman's spouse, Zhang Haixia, resigned from the company's director position, reflecting the broad mind and big picture of the company's actual controller Wang Tian. The actual controller of the company has flexible thinking, strong team management capabilities, and a stable management team. We believe that the broad mind and big picture of the actual controller provide a good organizational foundation for the company's transformation. Traditional enterprises must have an open spirit at the management level to carry out Internet + transformation. The company has good Internet genes in this regard. We are optimistic about the prospects of Internet + transformation in the future.
company transformation O+O has clear planning, strong determination, strong execution and broad development prospects.
company is a regional offline retail leader, entering online retail and creating a localized O+O platform. We believe that the company has unprecedented determination to carry out Internet + transformation, hiring elite teams in the industry with high salaries to vigorously promote various businesses; the company has a clear strategic plan, relies on the advantages of offline channels, makes full use of the advantages of offline channels, and actively expands online. The plan is clear and reliable; we are optimistic about the company’s future development prospects of building an O+O smart community platform.
's recent strategic transformation has been effectively implemented, and its global shopping and smart community platforms have been solidly advanced.
company has made solid progress in various businesses recently. The actual controller is personally responsible for global purchasing and purchasing, and has hired Yihaodian East China Purchasing Director to be responsible for the global purchasing team. The global purchasing business is actively promoted; the construction of the smart community platform membership system is stepped up, and the number of users is rapid. increase. There is no doubt that the number of users will reach 10 million by the end of 2015. The rapid growth in the number of users provides a good foundation for the company to build a smart community platform.
is firmly optimistic and maintains a "buy" rating.We maintain our profit forecast for offline channels. Without taking into account the increase in expenses caused by investment in offline and upstream businesses, we estimate that the company's EPS from 2015 to 2017 will be 0.87 yuan, 0.94 yuan and 1.04 yuan respectively.
's sales revenue in 2015 is expected to be 16.148 billion yuan, which is 3.2 times the sales revenue of Hongqi Chain, which is similar to the company's planned business. Based on the current market value of Hongqi Chain, the company's reasonable stock price is more than 50 yuan. Maintain "Buy" rating.
