Since Putin announced the start of the "special military operation" at the end of February this year, the Russia-Ukraine war has continued for many days, and has missed many "theoretically war stopping time points" considered by the international community or the outside world.

Since the end of February this year Putin announced the start of the "special military operation", the Russia-Ukraine war has lasted for many days, and has also missed many international communities, or what the outside world considers "theoretically the time when the war stops" . Including the Winter Paralympics in March, Russia's Victory Day military parade on May 9, Mariupol and other key time points such as the Russian army's major victory.

It can be said that the current development of the war situation should exceed the initial expectations of Putin and Russia's top military and political decision-makers. The war situation is visible to the naked eye and is lasting and long-term.

As the Russian military operations began and the war situation became protracted, Western countries gradually strengthened their economic sanctions and political isolation against Russia, and provided a steady stream of military assistance and political support to Ukraine . After entering March, it became increasingly clear that Russia could not end the war in a short time.

Many voices on the domestic Internet, including some from abroad, believe that the support of Western countries, led by the United States, for Ukraine has formed a subjective and objective level "the Russian Federation's Vietnam War moment" , Russia's future It is unavoidable to avoid the tragic historical ending of the Soviet Union's Afghanistan War, being set up by the United States and other countries to bleed blood, resulting in huge strategic losses and eventual "disintegration".

It seems that this pessimistic view is traceable, and it has a feeling of "breaking the drum and everyone hammering it."

Russia has been isolated on various international occasions because of the war with Ukraine. This has been no secret since the war between Russia and Ukraine began. This isolation ranges from multilateral international organizations and conferences such as the United Nations and conferences that are directly related to military and political affairs, to "full bloom" in cultural and sports fields such as figure skating and figure skating.

In terms of economy, Western countries directly expelled Russia from the swift trade settlement system . This can be said to have almost cut off the most direct connection between Russia and the mainstream international trade system in the foreign economy.

In terms of military and domestic affairs, , after the "rapid interspersion and vigorous advancement" in the early stages of the war, in mid-March, the Russian army's progress in Ukraine slowed down significantly, and even "completed a big job" on the first day of the war - — The "surprise troops" who raided Antonov Airport, including elite airborne troops and armored units, planned to go straight to Kiev to destroy the entire political and military center of Ukraine. They have also been anxious about the war situation and major events for several weeks. After the loss, they retreated and reorganized into other strategic battle directions, completely giving up that offensive.

However, some of Russia's performances in recent weeks seem to make these tragic arguments somewhat untenable.

After Russia adjusted its strategic deployment, especially after achieving a major victory in the direction of Mariupol, the war situation became relatively clear. In the face of Western sanctions, currently, with the Russian foreign exchange control measures that directly link ruble with exported energy, the ruble seems to be extremely strong . ruble is even predicted by some observers to be the "best-performing currency in the world" in the first half of this year and even throughout the year.

So, as the war situation develops today, will Russia repeat the "historical curse" of the Soviet Union and Tsarist Russia ?

This possibility is unlikely. But in the long run, especially in the "post-Putin era", it is worth paying attention to the future political and strategic direction of Russia.

Let’s first talk about why “Russia disintegrates again” is currently an extremely unlikely event.

In history, among the "great empires" built by the Slavic nation , Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union eventually ended in disintegration. One of the direct triggers for the collapse of Tsarist Russia was Tsarist Russia's major military defeat on the front line of World War I.In the subsequent explanations about the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the unreasonable national defense and foreign policies in the Brezhnev era, especially the long-term diplomatic crisis and protracted war caused by the Soviet Union's dispatch of troops to Afghanistan, The internal political crisis caused by the weak domestic economic conditions of the Soviet Union at the time has also been considered to be part of the important reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the late period.

However, the two tragedies of disintegration in the history of the Slavic nation were "ignited by the same or similar issue": The issue of regional separation .

The disintegration of the Soviet Union

In fact, the issue of regional separation is often considered to be the prelude to the disintegration of any major country or empire in history.

The "first brick" that triggered the disintegration of the Soviet Union was Lithuania declared independence on March 11, 1990.

At the end of Tsarist Russia, separatist movements in various regions, especially in some ethnic areas, also surged with the waves of the February Revolution and the October Revolution.

However, even though there are many "first bricks" in history that can lead to the disintegration of an empire, separatism alone will not completely lead to the collapse of a country - at this time, it is important for the central government to deal with related issues. The examination of abilities and skills is even more critical.

In the twentieth century, the Soviet Union or Tsarist Russia were far more than the only sovereign states facing internal separatist forces. For example, another big country, Britain. In its country, there is the Irish Republican Army active in the Northern Ireland region. The Irish Republican Army is an extremist faction among Irish Catholics who demand independence from British rule in Northern Ireland after the partition of Britain and Ireland. The peak period of their activity was from the 1950s to the 1970s, and they caused quite a number of bombings and other terrorist incidents.

The British's response at that time was also simple and crude: an "Operation Flag", which sent the British "Military Police Charter" and other powerful agencies to engage in long-term "security operations" in Northern Ireland and directly suppressed violently. Nowadays, the Northern Ireland issue has basically been put to rest, and the radical independence faction back then has gradually turned to relatively moderate political behavior.

It is not difficult to find from the case of the British suppression of the Irish Republican Army that when the central government faces a crisis situation that threatens the unity of the country and sovereignty, the effective operation of its powerful organs and even the entire central government administrative system is very critical.

Lithuania declared independence in 1991

In comparison, when Lithuania declared independence in 1991 at the end of the Soviet Union, the Soviet military and government were slow and unable to act due to various reasons. It can even be said that they "sit back and watch" to a considerable extent. Lithuania and the Baltic Sea The country declared independence from the Soviet Union as a "fait accompli."

It is said that the Soviet military originally hoped to start suppressing and intervening when a small group of people in Lithuania clamored for an "independence referendum" - at that time, considering that Lithuania was still part of the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union was still a legal and sovereign government. In fact, such behavior is a normal response that a legitimate government can and should make.

However, at that time, the Soviet government, especially Gorbachev , was hesitant and unwilling to "take the blame" for the negative public opinion and casualties that might arise from the military suppression. To a considerable extent, this led to the Soviet government’s inability and indecisiveness to respond to the “domino” wave of splitting at the end of its period.

Speaking of internal divisions, friends who are familiar with Russian history after the disintegration of the Soviet Union should have not forgotten the two Chechen wars .

The Chechnya issue also arose due to the issue of internal separatism and division within the country. However, from Yeltsin to Putin, especially after Putin came to power, Russia's attitude towards resolving the issue of Chechnya was clear and clear at that time: Use military means to solve the die-hard separatists. , and cooperate with those who are willing to surrender to Moscow.

To this day, it has also proved that the Russian government’s policy on the Chechen issue is effective.

The current leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, who performed well in the Russo-Ukrainian war, and his "personal guard" are one of the "products" of Putin's policy towards Chechnya since he came to power. .

Ramzan Kadyrov

And currently, the idea of ​​national separatism within Russia is not particularly strong. This can be seen from the composition of some Russian military units in this Russo-Ukrainian war.

Some current news indicates that many Russian " National Guards" and internal security forces are stationed in many areas of Ukraine that have been occupied by Russian troops to maintain order in the occupation. Many of these internal security forces are drawn from the relevant powerful departments of various state-level administrative entities under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation (equivalent to our provinces or autonomous regions), and have the nature of "turn-based warfare".

Among some of the troops originally stationed in areas inhabited by ethnic minorities, many officers and soldiers from ethnic minorities living in Russia can be seen. For example, there are some ethnic soldiers from Central Asia and Orion-born soldiers with obvious Asian faces from Siberia .

Moreover, in relevant Russian official propaganda, special emphasis will be placed on ethnic tolerance in the composition of the Russian army's internal personnel, as a "moral high ground" to fight back against the discriminatory and exclusionary behavior of some Russians and Russian-speaking people by the Kiev authorities. Attitudes and Policies.

When talking about the possible pessimistic vision of Russia's future, many people will analyze it from an economic perspective and believe that "Russia's economy is not good and naturally cannot support a protracted war. Once the war situation continues, the popular support of Putin's regime will be in jeopardy." .

It is true that Russia’s economic data today are not very good in international rankings. The 2021 rankings show that Russia currently only ranks 11th among countries around the world in terms of GDP, and its total GDP may not even be as high as a developed province on the southeastern coast of my country.

A cannon fires a thousand taels of gold. It is undeniable that the war is fought on the economic basis. In the past, the Soviet Union's launch of the war in Afghanistan was defined economically by later historians as "exacerbating the already weak Soviet economy." In modern wars, many big countries have lost wars and even caused economic collapse due to domestic economic problems.

Since Crimea , Russia has faced long-term sanctions from the European Union and the United States. In fact, the long-term economic performance is not particularly good, and its own industrial structure problems are relatively prominent. On the Internet, some Chinese and foreign Netizens often mock Russia as "disguising itself as a big gas station for the country." just reflects this problem.

But in other words, In a war environment, some of our usual views on a country's economy may have to change slightly.

Take the international sanctions that Russia is currently suffering from. It is true that for some foreign trade industries, "international sanctions" are by no means a good thing. The reason is that intensified international sanctions will inevitably affect a country's import and export trade and the future confidence of participants in the international trading system in a specific market.

But have you ever considered a question: Is it possible that some countries can survive without relying too much on foreign trade or foreign economic activities?

At present, Russia prioritizes the promotion of arms, food and fuel in its foreign trade - this gives Russia a certain "comparative advantage" in specific international trade areas. After all, some countries have more natural resources and some have less.

Have you not seen that during the Fourth Middle East War, Arab countries implemented an "oil embargo" to protest the United States' support for Israel, which triggered the oil crisis. took advantage of the natural resources occupied by small countries to win over the positions of some countries lacking resources on the Middle East war issue. - At that time, European Community some countries and Japan took the lead in compromising and announced support for Arab countries in the Middle East issue. position on .

In resource-based trade, in fact, the bargaining power of the seller will be significantly higher than that of the buyer at a certain time.

Since the end of February this year Putin announced the start of the "special military operation", the Russia-Ukraine war has lasted for many days, and has also missed many international communities, or what the outside world considers "theoretically the time when the war stops" . Including the Winter Paralympics in March, Russia's Victory Day military parade on May 9, Mariupol and other key time points such as the Russian army's major victory.

It can be said that the current development of the war situation should exceed the initial expectations of Putin and Russia's top military and political decision-makers. The war situation is visible to the naked eye and is lasting and long-term.

As the Russian military operations began and the war situation became protracted, Western countries gradually strengthened their economic sanctions and political isolation against Russia, and provided a steady stream of military assistance and political support to Ukraine . After entering March, it became increasingly clear that Russia could not end the war in a short time.

Many voices on the domestic Internet, including some from abroad, believe that the support of Western countries, led by the United States, for Ukraine has formed a subjective and objective level "the Russian Federation's Vietnam War moment" , Russia's future It is unavoidable to avoid the tragic historical ending of the Soviet Union's Afghanistan War, being set up by the United States and other countries to bleed blood, resulting in huge strategic losses and eventual "disintegration".

It seems that this pessimistic view is traceable, and it has a feeling of "breaking the drum and everyone hammering it."

Russia has been isolated on various international occasions because of the war with Ukraine. This has been no secret since the war between Russia and Ukraine began. This isolation ranges from multilateral international organizations and conferences such as the United Nations and conferences that are directly related to military and political affairs, to "full bloom" in cultural and sports fields such as figure skating and figure skating.

In terms of economy, Western countries directly expelled Russia from the swift trade settlement system . This can be said to have almost cut off the most direct connection between Russia and the mainstream international trade system in the foreign economy.

In terms of military and domestic affairs, , after the "rapid interspersion and vigorous advancement" in the early stages of the war, in mid-March, the Russian army's progress in Ukraine slowed down significantly, and even "completed a big job" on the first day of the war - — The "surprise troops" who raided Antonov Airport, including elite airborne troops and armored units, planned to go straight to Kiev to destroy the entire political and military center of Ukraine. They have also been anxious about the war situation and major events for several weeks. After the loss, they retreated and reorganized into other strategic battle directions, completely giving up that offensive.

However, some of Russia's performances in recent weeks seem to make these tragic arguments somewhat untenable.

After Russia adjusted its strategic deployment, especially after achieving a major victory in the direction of Mariupol, the war situation became relatively clear. In the face of Western sanctions, currently, with the Russian foreign exchange control measures that directly link ruble with exported energy, the ruble seems to be extremely strong . ruble is even predicted by some observers to be the "best-performing currency in the world" in the first half of this year and even throughout the year.

So, as the war situation develops today, will Russia repeat the "historical curse" of the Soviet Union and Tsarist Russia ?

This possibility is unlikely. But in the long run, especially in the "post-Putin era", it is worth paying attention to the future political and strategic direction of Russia.

Let’s first talk about why “Russia disintegrates again” is currently an extremely unlikely event.

In history, among the "great empires" built by the Slavic nation , Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union eventually ended in disintegration. One of the direct triggers for the collapse of Tsarist Russia was Tsarist Russia's major military defeat on the front line of World War I.In the subsequent explanations about the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the unreasonable national defense and foreign policies in the Brezhnev era, especially the long-term diplomatic crisis and protracted war caused by the Soviet Union's dispatch of troops to Afghanistan, The internal political crisis caused by the weak domestic economic conditions of the Soviet Union at the time has also been considered to be part of the important reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the late period.

However, the two tragedies of disintegration in the history of the Slavic nation were "ignited by the same or similar issue": The issue of regional separation .

The disintegration of the Soviet Union

In fact, the issue of regional separation is often considered to be the prelude to the disintegration of any major country or empire in history.

The "first brick" that triggered the disintegration of the Soviet Union was Lithuania declared independence on March 11, 1990.

At the end of Tsarist Russia, separatist movements in various regions, especially in some ethnic areas, also surged with the waves of the February Revolution and the October Revolution.

However, even though there are many "first bricks" in history that can lead to the disintegration of an empire, separatism alone will not completely lead to the collapse of a country - at this time, it is important for the central government to deal with related issues. The examination of abilities and skills is even more critical.

In the twentieth century, the Soviet Union or Tsarist Russia were far more than the only sovereign states facing internal separatist forces. For example, another big country, Britain. In its country, there is the Irish Republican Army active in the Northern Ireland region. The Irish Republican Army is an extremist faction among Irish Catholics who demand independence from British rule in Northern Ireland after the partition of Britain and Ireland. The peak period of their activity was from the 1950s to the 1970s, and they caused quite a number of bombings and other terrorist incidents.

The British's response at that time was also simple and crude: an "Operation Flag", which sent the British "Military Police Charter" and other powerful agencies to engage in long-term "security operations" in Northern Ireland and directly suppressed violently. Nowadays, the Northern Ireland issue has basically been put to rest, and the radical independence faction back then has gradually turned to relatively moderate political behavior.

It is not difficult to find from the case of the British suppression of the Irish Republican Army that when the central government faces a crisis situation that threatens the unity of the country and sovereignty, the effective operation of its powerful organs and even the entire central government administrative system is very critical.

Lithuania declared independence in 1991

In comparison, when Lithuania declared independence in 1991 at the end of the Soviet Union, the Soviet military and government were slow and unable to act due to various reasons. It can even be said that they "sit back and watch" to a considerable extent. Lithuania and the Baltic Sea The country declared independence from the Soviet Union as a "fait accompli."

It is said that the Soviet military originally hoped to start suppressing and intervening when a small group of people in Lithuania clamored for an "independence referendum" - at that time, considering that Lithuania was still part of the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union was still a legal and sovereign government. In fact, such behavior is a normal response that a legitimate government can and should make.

However, at that time, the Soviet government, especially Gorbachev , was hesitant and unwilling to "take the blame" for the negative public opinion and casualties that might arise from the military suppression. To a considerable extent, this led to the Soviet government’s inability and indecisiveness to respond to the “domino” wave of splitting at the end of its period.

Speaking of internal divisions, friends who are familiar with Russian history after the disintegration of the Soviet Union should have not forgotten the two Chechen wars .

The Chechnya issue also arose due to the issue of internal separatism and division within the country. However, from Yeltsin to Putin, especially after Putin came to power, Russia's attitude towards resolving the issue of Chechnya was clear and clear at that time: Use military means to solve the die-hard separatists. , and cooperate with those who are willing to surrender to Moscow.

To this day, it has also proved that the Russian government’s policy on the Chechen issue is effective.

The current leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, who performed well in the Russo-Ukrainian war, and his "personal guard" are one of the "products" of Putin's policy towards Chechnya since he came to power. .

Ramzan Kadyrov

And currently, the idea of ​​national separatism within Russia is not particularly strong. This can be seen from the composition of some Russian military units in this Russo-Ukrainian war.

Some current news indicates that many Russian " National Guards" and internal security forces are stationed in many areas of Ukraine that have been occupied by Russian troops to maintain order in the occupation. Many of these internal security forces are drawn from the relevant powerful departments of various state-level administrative entities under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation (equivalent to our provinces or autonomous regions), and have the nature of "turn-based warfare".

Among some of the troops originally stationed in areas inhabited by ethnic minorities, many officers and soldiers from ethnic minorities living in Russia can be seen. For example, there are some ethnic soldiers from Central Asia and Orion-born soldiers with obvious Asian faces from Siberia .

Moreover, in relevant Russian official propaganda, special emphasis will be placed on ethnic tolerance in the composition of the Russian army's internal personnel, as a "moral high ground" to fight back against the discriminatory and exclusionary behavior of some Russians and Russian-speaking people by the Kiev authorities. Attitudes and Policies.

When talking about the possible pessimistic vision of Russia's future, many people will analyze it from an economic perspective and believe that "Russia's economy is not good and naturally cannot support a protracted war. Once the war situation continues, the popular support of Putin's regime will be in jeopardy." .

It is true that Russia’s economic data today are not very good in international rankings. The 2021 rankings show that Russia currently only ranks 11th among countries around the world in terms of GDP, and its total GDP may not even be as high as a developed province on the southeastern coast of my country.

A cannon fires a thousand taels of gold. It is undeniable that the war is fought on the economic basis. In the past, the Soviet Union's launch of the war in Afghanistan was defined economically by later historians as "exacerbating the already weak Soviet economy." In modern wars, many big countries have lost wars and even caused economic collapse due to domestic economic problems.

Since Crimea , Russia has faced long-term sanctions from the European Union and the United States. In fact, the long-term economic performance is not particularly good, and its own industrial structure problems are relatively prominent. On the Internet, some Chinese and foreign Netizens often mock Russia as "disguising itself as a big gas station for the country." just reflects this problem.

But in other words, In a war environment, some of our usual views on a country's economy may have to change slightly.

Take the international sanctions that Russia is currently suffering from. It is true that for some foreign trade industries, "international sanctions" are by no means a good thing. The reason is that intensified international sanctions will inevitably affect a country's import and export trade and the future confidence of participants in the international trading system in a specific market.

But have you ever considered a question: Is it possible that some countries can survive without relying too much on foreign trade or foreign economic activities?

At present, Russia prioritizes the promotion of arms, food and fuel in its foreign trade - this gives Russia a certain "comparative advantage" in specific international trade areas. After all, some countries have more natural resources and some have less.

Have you not seen that during the Fourth Middle East War, Arab countries implemented an "oil embargo" to protest the United States' support for Israel, which triggered the oil crisis. took advantage of the natural resources occupied by small countries to win over the positions of some countries lacking resources on the Middle East war issue. - At that time, European Community some countries and Japan took the lead in compromising and announced support for Arab countries in the Middle East issue. position on .

In resource-based trade, in fact, the bargaining power of the seller will be significantly higher than that of the buyer at a certain time.This is especially true when there is a large difference in the amount of specific resources held by the two parties to the transaction, and a specific type of resource is deemed relatively "scarce" by the international market for a certain period of time and the price is high.

During this period, many public reports have confirmed that has been on the opposite side of Russia on the Russia-Ukraine issue, at least for a short period of time, and the EU, which has imposed sanctions on Russia, cannot get rid of its dependence on Russia for food and energy.

Faced with Russia's strategy of directly linking the ruble to the energy it exports, it seems that many EU countries are "speaking out of integrity". They have to consider how to store as much as possible before winter arrives. supplies.

Although the United States claims that it will fill as much of the energy gap in Europe caused by sanctions against Russia as possible, this will not be easy in the short term.

And Europe is trying to find other energy producing countries, such as the Middle East some oil exporting countries. Some analysts believe that these Middle East oil exporters are reluctant to increase production in the short term in view of the fluctuating oil prices since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war - which makes Europe's efforts to replace energy sources from Russia more difficult.

Regarding the economy and sanctions against Russia, many domestic and foreign observers have also noticed that as many multinational companies, especially some big international names from Western countries, have terminated their business in Russia after European and American sanctions, this will The domestic life of Russian citizens will be greatly impacted and affected.

Some voices will make some associations with this phenomenon. believes that Russian people whose living standards have plummeted will take to the streets to overthrow the Putin regime.

It is undeniable that the departure of many Western companies and capital from Russia will indeed have a considerable impact on the lives of Russian people.

For example, KFC McDonald's has terminated its business in Russia, so Russians who often eat these foreign fast food may be worried because they cannot eat these fast food; Apple and other advanced electronic products have terminated their business in Russia, and some in Russia Users of related brands may face the dilemma of not getting product upgrades and maintenance, etc.

Moreover, it is no secret that the Western economic sanctions against Russia have caused the gap between the quality of life of Russian citizens and that of citizens of many EU countries to further widen after 2014, and this has further intensified the brain drain from Russia.

It is true that there are the above-mentioned factors that are unfavorable to Russia, but from the current point of view, it is difficult for to form "the last straw that crushes the Russian Federation" at least in the short term.

Regarding some Western brands that have withdrawn from the Russian market, the Russian government has also taken measures such as nationalizing the production materials of these brands in order to stop losses as much as possible.

Some time ago, after Russian state-owned capital took over the production materials left behind by McDonald's in the Moscow area, it opened a new local brand Western-style fast food restaurant. It is said that the response has been good.

Following this, combined with the comparative advantages of Russia in some specific economic fields mentioned earlier, we can talk about the "resilience" issue of the Russian economy .

The so-called "resilience of the Russian economy", in my opinion, applies a concept that has been popular in China in recent years, which is "internal circulation" .

From a historical perspective, especially from the Soviet Union to Russia, Russia is a country that is very good at engaging in "internal circulation."

Although the Soviet Union still ended up disintegrating, one thing that is undeniable is that it, together with the Economic Cooperation Council and other socialist countries at the time, created the "circulation within the Economic Cooperation Council system" that has been supported for quite some time in history.

At that time, Europe launched the Marshall Plan after World War II, which ultimately eliminated the socialist camp in Eastern Europe. This is similar to how some Western countries today isolate Russia in the international economic and capital flow system. But even so, the collapse of the Soviet Union happened more than 40 years after the end of World War II.

So from a macro perspective, in the short term, it is highly unlikely that Russia will completely collapse due to economic sanctions.Although Western sanctions will create a gap in Russia's capital and technology, it will not completely find alternatives. In addition, some measures taken by the Russian government currently appear to be able to effectively offset some of the impact of external sanctions.

However, it must be noted that due to a series of problems in Russia's own economy, coupled with current Western sanctions and other factors, Russia's economy can only be said to have "not yet collapsed." However, it is very difficult to achieve further development, or to achieve the internal economic structure that some people envisioned, and to improve from its previous over-reliance on resource exports.

There is another reason why Russia will not and is not afraid of repeating the mistakes of the Soviet Union. That is Russians’ support for Putin’s government .

To this day, although there are still some reports about demonstrations by "anti-war people" in Russia and their punishment by the Russian government. But even some voices hostile to Russia admit that many public opinion poll reports show that the high support rate for Putin among the Russian people is credible when it comes to launching a war against Ukraine.

This is about Russia’s internal mobilization issue.

Many people may say that Russia is a country with insufficient human resources. Since the launch of military operations, the conclusion that Russia's "insufficient manpower has led to poor progress in some strategic and tactical directions" can often be seen.

Moreover, Russia has not yet issued an order for general mobilization or partial mobilization, so why should we talk about "internal mobilization" here?

It should be noted that the "internal mobilization" we are talking about here is not "mobilization" in the military sense, but a kind of political mobilization. The so-called "political mobilization" refers to the political propaganda and instigation of supporters by political entities in order to achieve a certain purpose, in order to arouse the " empathy " and support of the target of the propaganda.

For a legal country and regime that has established sovereignty, political mobilization is an important means and right that it can exercise. It is also an important criterion for testing whether a regime or government is supported by the people.

Although Russia has not yet carried out general mobilization of military service like Tsarist Russia did in World War I or the Soviet Union in World War II, the Putin government's "political mobilization" within Russia has already been carried out, or it has been carried out for a long time and has achieved considerable results.

Specifically, Russia has formed its own discourse system that is based on Russia's position and is relatively logically self-consistent with to explain the current war in Ukraine and everything Russia has done.

From the internal conflict in Ukraine to exaggerating the "humanitarian disaster" caused by the Ukrainian government forces' military operations in eastern Ukraine, to explaining to the Russian people the possible "tragic consequences" after Ukraine joins NATO , and then to some reports from Russia Voices interpret today's international order as "based on the collapse of the Soviet Union/the greatest historical and political tragedy that Russia has experienced" ...

Putin uses a mixture of "great power complex", " Eurasianism ", The unique internal propaganda discourse of "legitimacy inheritance" and many other elements has won considerable support from the Russian people.

This can also be seen in the reaction of some opponents of Putin and the self-proclaimed "liberal" camp.

Western countries have cut off Russia’s external propaganda channels at the beginning of the war, and many international mainstream platforms have banned Russian IPs. But soon, there was news that many Russian anti-Putin people active in the West believed that the ban on Russia by , the international mainstream online media, might be "counterproductive" to .

Because Russia has its own unique set of internal mobilization rhetoric, which has actually been "cultivated" since the Soviet period. This kind of discourse is relatively independent of the discourse expression and content expression systems of other countries or nations. It is not easy, or in other words, it is not easy to be influenced by some voices from the West at a time when relations between Russia and the West have seriously deteriorated.

In the eyes of Russian "liberals", preventing Russian officials from speaking in the safe zone of Western public opinion is actually preventing their voices from spreading within Russia.

Of course, saying that Russia will not repeat historical tragedies or break up again is only a relatively short-term conclusion we draw based on the current development of the situation combined with historical analysis.

Just like when Putin announced the launch of the "special military operation", it has exceeded many predictions in terms of timing and scale, as well as the development of the war situation to this day. In the long term, Russia's future development path still has quite a few overt or covert "landmines."

For example, is about Putin's future "successor", the progress of future battles and tactics on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, the future international transaction price trend of export resources where Russia currently has a comparative advantage, and the current spillover of sanctions against Russia. The possibility that the United States and the European Union will impose "secondary sanctions" on countries other than Russia may have a considerable impact on Russia's future.

The development of the international situation is rapidly changing, and the political, military, and economic factors inside and outside a country will interact and interact. From the current point of view, the Russia-Ukraine war has had a considerable impact on our country's economy and geostrategy. We also hope that the war will end soon.

Many people may say that Russia is a country with insufficient human resources. Since the launch of military operations, the conclusion that Russia's "insufficient manpower has led to poor progress in some strategic and tactical directions" can often be seen.

Moreover, Russia has not yet issued an order for general mobilization or partial mobilization, so why should we talk about "internal mobilization" here?

It should be noted that the "internal mobilization" we are talking about here is not "mobilization" in the military sense, but a kind of political mobilization. The so-called "political mobilization" refers to the political propaganda and instigation of supporters by political entities in order to achieve a certain purpose, in order to arouse the " empathy " and support of the target of the propaganda.

For a legal country and regime that has established sovereignty, political mobilization is an important means and right that it can exercise. It is also an important criterion for testing whether a regime or government is supported by the people.

Although Russia has not yet carried out general mobilization of military service like Tsarist Russia did in World War I or the Soviet Union in World War II, the Putin government's "political mobilization" within Russia has already been carried out, or it has been carried out for a long time and has achieved considerable results.

Specifically, Russia has formed its own discourse system that is based on Russia's position and is relatively logically self-consistent with to explain the current war in Ukraine and everything Russia has done.

From the internal conflict in Ukraine to exaggerating the "humanitarian disaster" caused by the Ukrainian government forces' military operations in eastern Ukraine, to explaining to the Russian people the possible "tragic consequences" after Ukraine joins NATO , and then to some reports from Russia Voices interpret today's international order as "based on the collapse of the Soviet Union/the greatest historical and political tragedy that Russia has experienced" ...

Putin uses a mixture of "great power complex", " Eurasianism ", The unique internal propaganda discourse of "legitimacy inheritance" and many other elements has won considerable support from the Russian people.

This can also be seen in the reaction of some opponents of Putin and the self-proclaimed "liberal" camp.

Western countries have cut off Russia’s external propaganda channels at the beginning of the war, and many international mainstream platforms have banned Russian IPs. But soon, there was news that many Russian anti-Putin people active in the West believed that the ban on Russia by , the international mainstream online media, might be "counterproductive" to .

Because Russia has its own unique set of internal mobilization rhetoric, which has actually been "cultivated" since the Soviet period. This kind of discourse is relatively independent of the discourse expression and content expression systems of other countries or nations. It is not easy, or in other words, it is not easy to be influenced by some voices from the West at a time when relations between Russia and the West have seriously deteriorated.

In the eyes of Russian "liberals", preventing Russian officials from speaking in the safe zone of Western public opinion is actually preventing their voices from spreading within Russia.

Of course, saying that Russia will not repeat historical tragedies or break up again is only a relatively short-term conclusion we draw based on the current development of the situation combined with historical analysis.

Just like when Putin announced the launch of the "special military operation", it has exceeded many predictions in terms of timing and scale, as well as the development of the war situation to this day. In the long term, Russia's future development path still has quite a few overt or covert "landmines."

For example, is about Putin's future "successor", the progress of future battles and tactics on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, the future international transaction price trend of export resources where Russia currently has a comparative advantage, and the current spillover of sanctions against Russia. The possibility that the United States and the European Union will impose "secondary sanctions" on countries other than Russia may have a considerable impact on Russia's future.

The development of the international situation is rapidly changing, and the political, military, and economic factors inside and outside a country will interact and interact. From the current point of view, the Russia-Ukraine war has had a considerable impact on our country's economy and geostrategy. We also hope that the war will end soon.