The barometer of the completion of the "dual control" (energy consumption intensity and total energy consumption) goals of various regions in the first half of 2021 shows that Zhejiang's energy consumption intensity and total energy consumption are both Level 2 early warnings, and the situation is relatively severe.
Not only in Keqiao, Shaoxing, under the national carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, China's high-energy-consuming basic industries are facing "dual control" of energy consumption and production reduction of high-voltage lines.
The off-peak electricity consumption has made many people realize that the intensity of power restrictions is getting stricter this time, and the "double limits" brought about by "dual control" are not an overnight policy, and will even become the norm in the days to come. The orderly electricity consumption range in many regions has extended beyond the holidays, which has also caused many textile and chemical fiber people to express concerns about the future market and price trends, and are even more uncertain about the supply of goods.
"Electricity price increase" strikes
html Since late September, the "power rationing wave" has affected many provinces across the country. Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanghai and other regions have already started to adjust the "electricity price increase" one after another, allowing the coal and electricity market to trade electricity prices at The benchmark electricity price will fluctuate upward.
html On July 23, the Inner Mongolia Department of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Clarifying the Price Fluctuation Upper Limit of the Electricity Trading Market in Western Inner Mongolia and Adjusting Market Trading Policies for Some Industries." It stipulates that starting from August, the transaction price of coal-fired power generation in the power trading market in western Inner Mongolia can increase by no more than 10% based on the benchmark price.
CICC research report analysis said that the western Inner Mongolia region took the lead in clarifying the floating space for electricity prices, which will help thermal power to achieve improved profit margins. This adjustment is also the first time since the introduction of the "electricity price reduction" and floating electricity price policies since 2017 that the control of electricity prices has been relaxed.
According to the China Energy News, a subsidiary of the People's Daily, on August 4, the Development and Reform Commission of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region issued the "Notice on Adjusting Matters Related to Direct Electricity Trading in 2021", which will regulate matters related to direct electricity trading in Ningxia from August to December this year. Adjustments were made and it was proposed to allow coal and electricity transaction prices to rise by no more than 10% based on the benchmark price.
Subsequently, the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission requested to further improve the "base price + floating up and down" electricity market price formation mechanism, and cancel the provision that the coal-fired benchmark on-grid electricity price "not float temporarily".
html At the end of August, the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the issuance of the "Guidelines for Further Regulating the Price Behavior of Non-Grid Direct Power Supply in this City", further stipulating that the maximum increase in the price of electricity for end-users of non-grid direct power supply shall not exceed 10%.
According to China Times, on September 24, the Guangdong Electricity Trading Center issued the "Notice on Improving the Operation of the Guangdong Electricity Market in the Fourth Quarter of 2021" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The "Notice" clarifies that the monthly transaction price difference is allowed to be positive or negative, and at the same time, the increase in electricity prices will be transmitted to end users. This is considered to be a sign that the Guangdong power market is about to enter a pricing increase stage.
Immediately afterwards, on September 27, the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Improving the Transaction Price Mechanism for Coal-fired Power Generation in Our Province", stipulating that starting from October, on the basis of determining the benchmark price for power market transactions, the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission will introduce The coal purchase price of coal-fired thermal power enterprises is used as a parameter, and the upper limit of transaction price is adjusted in a certain period.
The notice mentioned that a floating price ceiling floating mechanism for coal-fired thermal power market transactions linked to coal prices will be established to reasonably reflect the costs of power generation and electricity consumption and reduce market risks. At present, Hunan Province stipulates: "When the average unit price of standard coal at the factory exceeds 1,300 yuan/ton, and the coal price increases by 50 yuan/ton, the upper limit of the coal-fired thermal power transaction price will increase by 1.5 cents/kWh, and the maximum increase shall not exceed the national Regulation.”
It is difficult to stop power supply in key provinces, and chemical products continue to be in short supply
In addition, Anhui, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong and other regions have launched power rationing measures, and 7 to 20 days of power rationing have been generally arranged every month from October to December. Production. The caprolactam industry chain in Fujian, the solid epoxy resin industry chain in Anhui, and the ABS industry chain in Jilin will all experience reduced production capacity.
It is understood that after the holidays mentioned above, In areas where power cuts are still continuing, the chemical industry is relatively developed, involving a variety of chemical products. Under strict power and production restrictions, many companies have announced that they will no longer work overtime during the holidays, which means that they will no longer work overtime during the holidays. , the shortage of these products is still there and will get worse after the holidays.
Before energy consumption control achieves certain results, it will be difficult to resume production in the above areas, and the shortage of supply will also continue to push up the prices of chemical products in the related industrial chain.
Edited and compiled from Chemical Industry 707, Paint Purchasing Network, Chemical Fiber Headlines, Interface News, Knitting Industry, Network
