1. Market Overview Today, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3539.1, an increase of 0.18%, with a cumulative increase of 1.36% this week; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14705.37, an increase of 0.04%, with a cumulative increase of 1.68% this week; the ChiNext Index cl

1. Market Overview

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3539.1 today, an increase of 0.18%, and a cumulative increase of 1.36% this week; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14705.37, an increase of 0.04%, and a cumulative increase of 1.68% this week; the ChiNext Index closed at 3430.14, an increase of 1.68% -0.09%, a cumulative increase of 2.31% this week. The transaction volume of the two cities today was 1.08623 billion, an increase of -2.54% from the previous trading day; the average daily transaction volume this week was 1.06256 billion, an increase of -6.39% from the previous week. The net inflow of northbound funds today was 3.627 billion yuan, and the net outflow this week was -2.691 billion yuan. The insurance theme index (399809) rose by -0.58% today, and the cumulative increase this week was 0.88%.

2. Industry Trends

The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission cracked down on the "0 yuan in the first month" insurance chaos. Insurance brokerage companies such as Weidian Insurance and Shuidi were heavily fined. On November 9, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced the administrative penalty decision, which showed that Waterdrop Insurance Brokerage Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Waterdrop Brokerage) and WeDoctor (Beijing) Insurance Brokerage Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as WeDoctor Brokerage) were charged with "0 yuan in the first month". The sales chaos of "0 yuan in the first installment" was determined to be "failure to use approved or registered insurance terms and insurance rates in accordance with regulations" and was subject to administrative penalties. The relevant responsible persons were fined 1 million yuan and 100,000 yuan respectively. Also punished.

GF Securities: In the next 10 years, health insurance premiums are expected to achieve an average annual compound growth rate of 10%-14%, reaching a level of around 2.1 trillion-3 trillion. We are different from the past quantitative measurement of the development space of commercial health insurance through the density and depth of life insurance. Instead, we measure it from the demand side of residents. First, the financing level (health cost/GDP ratio) is lower than the OECD average level, and Per capita GDP is also low, with room for improvement; second, the proportion of public funds in the financing structure is relatively high but still lower than that of developed countries, and the proportion of self-financed funds is significantly higher. There are only two ways to reduce the proportion of self-payments in the future. One is to increase the proportion of public funds or commercial health insurance. Based on prudent assumptions about GDP, the proportion of health expenses in GDP, the proportion of public funds, and the health insurance compensation rate, we can calculate the health insurance cost in the next 10 years. Insurance premiums are expected to achieve an average annual compound growth rate of 10%-14%, reaching a level of around 2.1 trillion-3 trillion.

China Merchants Securities: Inspiration from the development experience of United Health (UNH.N): Insurance + medical care, the next blue ocean of health insurance. In 1974, benefiting from the rise of managed care, United Health was established in the United States, and its development also benefited from strong policy support. Through in-depth development of the insurance business and outward expansion of mergers and acquisitions, UnitedHealth Group has formed a 1+1 business system: the UnitedHealthcare platform centered on health insurance and the Optum platform centered on health services. The two business segments complement each other and gradually build a closed health management loop of "health insurance + medical services", subverting and reshaping the medical ecosystem, and building United Health into the world's largest commercial health insurance company. my country's commercial health insurance is still in the ascendant, and the core obstacle to short-term development lies in the single supply of products and services. Appropriate reference to the experience of outstanding companies can help the long-term development of the industry, and also help the construction of my country's residents' medical security system. The growth in the number of agents, rising residents’ awareness, rising medical costs, and strong support from government policies have jointly promoted the rapid development of my country’s commercial health insurance in the early stage. However, the development of my country’s health insurance is still in its infancy. Against the backdrop of the disappearance of the demographic dividend, Under the condition of a single supply of products and services, the future development direction of my country's health insurance can appropriately draw on the experience of the United States: 1) The government and regulatory authorities formulate and improve medical and insurance industry development policies, tax preferential policies, etc., which can help the development of commercial health insurance; 2) Insurance companies are actively seeking cooperation with governments, hospitals, pharmacies, etc., and actively exploring managed care. Because only when multiple parties in the medical industry chain cooperate with each other to jointly promote the construction of the medical system, can the social function of insurance be fully and better realized, thereby achieving high-quality development of commercial health insurance. Looking to the future, if the pain points of the relevant industry chain can be solved, health will The growth space of the insurance industry will be opened up again.

3. Valuation situation

Under low valuations, it is recommended to track the margin improvement on the liability side and the opportunities for valuation switching in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to allocation opportunities in the insurance sector.

On the asset side, considering the expected continued stability of the real estate industry, the sensitivity of insurance companies to the impact of the narrowing duration gap on interest rates has significantly decreased, and the overall investment yield is relatively stable. The liability side of
is expected to have passed the period of greatest impact, and manpower may gradually stabilize. New orders and value pressure in 2021Q4 may benefit from the low base, and a good start in 2022 is expected to gradually begin; as of now, listed life insurance companies The company's stock price corresponds to A-share P/EV valuation of 0.4-0.8X. Listed insurance companies are all in the lowest range in history (0-5% percentile), with a certain margin of safety; the current valuation level of the industry has fully reflected the pessimism on the liability side. It is expected that its long-term configuration will become more and more cost-effective.

Risk warning

This article was compiled by Founder Fubon Fund Management Co., Ltd. based on market public data and does not make any guarantees about the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should not use this article as the only reference factor for investment decisions, nor should they believe that this article can replace their own judgment. Before deciding to invest, investors must consult professionals if necessary and make careful decisions.

The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. The fund manager promises to manage and use the fund assets in accordance with the principles of due diligence, good faith, prudence and diligence, but does not guarantee that the fund will make a profit, nor does it guarantee a minimum return. The fund manager reminds investors that before making investment decisions, they should fully understand the product characteristics of the fund, fully consider their own risk tolerance, and rationally judge the market. Investors are responsible for the investment risks caused by changes in fund operating conditions and fund net value. Investment is risky, so you must choose carefully. Investors are advised to carefully read the fund's fund contract, latest prospectus, fund product information summary and other legal documents before investing.