If the Reform Movement of 1898 is successful, can Emperor Guangxu change the destiny of China?

is a relatively rare type of emperor in Chinese history. He does not have an orthodox royal lineage. According to the classification of Qing Dynasty lineage, he should belong to the descendants of Emperor Daoguang. At the same time, he has real power for about a few months in his life. It was the period when Empress Dowager Cixi moved to the Summer Palace. He led the only reform in Chinese history. If this reform succeeds, then China is likely to transform into a constitutional monarchy.

So if Emperor Guangxu succeeds in reform, will China's destiny change? The author analyzes it from several angles.

First, from the perspective of Emperor Guangxu himself, Emperor Guangxu’s enlightenment teacher is largely the Empress Dowager Cixi. In history, the Empress Dowager Cixi was a woman with a strong desire for power. . Guangxu grew up by her side since she was a child, and was full of longing for imperial power.

He once said that if I don't have the right, I would rather abdicate. It can be seen that his desire for imperial power is due to Emperor Guangxu's sense of responsibility as an emperor, and on the other hand, it is also due to his character. With such a character, if the reform is successful and Emperor Guangxu gains real power, it is unlikely that he will give up easily. At that time, the Reform Movement of 1898 was to a large extent imitating the systems of Japan and other countries and implementing a constitutional monarchy. Once Emperor Guangxu learned the essence of this problem. The reform is likely to be only a formality. At that time, the biggest problem in the Manchus was the depletion of people's hearts. If the reform was just a mere formality, the subsequent preparations to imitate the constitution was another demonstration of the results of the reform. Therefore, even if the reform was successful, Emperor Guangxu was still a feudal emperor in his bones. He received the most traditional emperor education, and it was unlikely that he would accept the reform that weakened the imperial power.

Second, Yuan Shikai may become the next power minister. If the reform is to be successful, killing the empress Dowager Cixi’s cron Rong Lu is a key part. If Rong Lu is killed, Yuan Shikai will be the next official. He has China's most elite new army of Beiyang in his hands, and he has the merit of supporting Emperor Guangxu. Emperor Guangxu must rely on him. However, from the perspective of later history, Yuan Shikai was a difficult person to control. Later the Manchu government was helpless, and Yuan Shikai at least contributed to the demise of the Manchu. This troubled king would not be willing to be under Emperor Guangxu. The most important thing is that he still holds military power in his hands. Assuming that the reform is successful, then according to the system at the time, Yuan Shikai is likely to be the chief minister of military aircraft, that is, the prime minister. On the issue of power struggle, he will definitely clashed with Emperor Guangxu, and launch another coup d’état and urge Guangxu to step down. possible. During the Republic of China, Yuan Shikai was still perversely, dreaming of an unrealistic emperor dream. Therefore, even if the reform is successful, China will still be that China, but the name of the ruler or country will change.

Third, the Manchu aristocracy would not agree. The Reform Movement of 1898 damaged the interests of the Manchu aristocracy. During the period of Emperor Yongzheng, the distant ancestor of Emperor Guangxu, many new policies were introduced, but it was still under the goal of consolidating the Manchu Qing regime. The opposition of the Manchu nobles. After all, the Manchus were the Manchus of the Manchus, and they were a privileged class, although this severely hindered social progress at that time. These people are unlikely to give up their privileges. In particular, the salary system has always been accustomed to clothes and mouths. I am afraid it is difficult to make changes.

In short, even if the Reform Movement of 1898 is successful, the current situation in China will not change. The thinking of the people at the time was still traditional feudal thinking, and few people could accept new ideas. I think that even Emperor Guangxu could not accept the constitutional monarchy system. . It was a beautiful dream at the time to achieve success through such reforms.