Before we talked about two issues, the formation of hegemony and support of hegemony in the United States.
has a factor called force majeure. If war is calculated or not, this factor is absolutely fatal. If it is because of war, it must be a war that the United States has to directly participate in, and it must face a military power or a strong country. The United States will not lose, but will be weakened. Therefore, the United States will not have direct military conflicts with any major power, including Russia. For its own safety, the United States will not give such an opportunity even if it is confident. The United States is very strong, but he will not do anything to kill a thousand enemies and lose one hundred of himself. If he is weakened and his hegemony is probably out of control, his international status will probably not be controlled. This is something the United States will definitely not want.
There will be no war between any two major powers because of the existence of nuclear powers, but this world is random, accidental, and emotional. For example, if a certain missile of a major power fails, if the US military misjudgment occurs, if the black swan event occurs, then there is a high probability that the United States will fall into it, creating a probability for decline, of course, the premise is that the major powers have conflicts with him.
Secondly, the United States will be consumed by itself, which may be inevitable. It is difficult to crack if this situation occurs. At present, the United States is not easy to be consumed, because when something happens, there is NATO , which consumes the United States very limited. However, with the development of European countries and the improvement of their comprehensive national strength, one day they will resist and have the ability to resist. If that day comes, the United States wants to play the principle of leverage and use others to consume others, it will not be easy to make a big move. In other words, if the United States wants to continue to maintain its dominance and control the world order, it will only consume itself continuously. This is unsolvable. There is a law called the law of entropy increase. If the United States wants to maintain the order it is dominated by and the stability of this system, it must continuously input energy into the system, otherwise it will be chaotic. This process is to consume itself. In the past, the order system was in chaos. He maintained it by consuming NATO, , EU , or Japan. However, as other countries develop and grow, others are unwilling to be consumed, and the United States can only consume itself.
Another possibility is civil strife. Once internal strife is in chaos, it cannot develop normally, and it gives others a chance. There are many powerful things. It is difficult for you to break it from the outside, but it may have problems within itself. For example, the Soviet Union was quite powerful back then. Was the disintegration of the Soviet Union because of the peaceful evolution of the United States? Is there any possibility of civil unrest in the United States? Of course, it is possible that there are many social problems in the United States, and social conflicts will accumulate. If it accumulates to a certain extent, some problems may occur, and then a qualitative change will occur. For example, will the United States divide? Will every state become a country? All of this is possible.
Finally, another possibility is that a country has risen, and it doesn’t matter how it rises. Maybe the United States has ignored it, but people have risen, just like the former Nokia , it just made a mistake in the strategy and predictions. It has not paid attention to other manufacturers, has not kept up with the new technology in the new era, or has been defeated by new technology, and it will decline. It turns out that users who have used Nokia should know that no one can shake its quality and its market share at that time.
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