The reason why Western civilization can rise in modern times has three core elements:
religion, elected politics, and free capitalism .
Religion is the cornerstone of Western civilization.
In the Age of Discovery, facing a mortality rate of up to 50%, without the religious belief , this bond brings unity, it is hard to imagine that Westerners can continue to explore the entire world under this pressure for nearly two centuries.
Free capitalism is a catalyst for Western civilization.
People are born with the desire to pursue wealth, and free capitalism is a perfect business model that conforms to human nature.
It can select the most suitable individuals in the crowd as capitalists in the shortest time and achieve the maximum growth of wealth.
elected politics is the ballast of Western civilization.
Because power cannot be hereditary, elected politicians must always pay attention to the changes in the desires of most voters and restrict free competition without bottom line.
Logically, the design of modern Western civilization is exquisite.
not only releases the human desires, but also restricts the human desires.
But humans are a wonderful creature.
They long for fairness and order, but they often take the initiative to break fairness and order.
Western civilization has actually entered a dead end today.
What's amazing is that this dead end is exactly what they caused by themselves.
In the prosperous period of Western civilization, this mechanism often works well:
The huge middle class stage is highly consistent with social consensus, and the elite's desire to expand externally is far greater than the desire to fight within.
But at this stage, elected politicians often don’t have a happy life.
Because at this stage, voters don't really care who they are.
Or, at this stage, voters believe that there is no big difference between who to choose to take office.
Yes, at the peak of the United States, can you say that the 2000 election fights to the death, which is more suitable for president, Bush or Gore?
In 2000, the votes in the US presidential election were very close, and candidate Gore was behind only more than 2,000 votes in the most critical state of Fronida.
After the voting results came out, because the votes were too close, he refused to admit defeat and asked to recount the votes.
Another candidate, Bush, was so angry that he beat the lawsuit all the way to the Supreme Court.
The Chief Justice at that time believed that it was not who won, but who quickly ended the chaos, so in the end, the Supreme Court immediately ruled to stop counting votes, which eventually made George W. Jr. win by chance.
At the peak of the US national power, someone once joked: Even a pig can do a good job when sitting in that position!
This is the embarrassing thing about the profession of elected politicians at the peak of capitalist society , the profession of elected politicians:
Social development is too harmonious, and the consensus among middle voters is too consistent, and it is difficult for elected politicians to obtain their own iron-clad voters.
But as the social gap between the rich and the poor reaches a certain critical point, a good era for elected politicians has arrived.
This good era is when the consensus among middle-aged voters begins to split.
When the consensus of a group of people is highly consistent, for this group of voters, there is actually not much difference between who to choose to take office.
Nothing is that some people have stronger abilities (such as Bush, Clinton , etc.), while others have higher charisma (such as Obama ).
But when the consensus of a group of people differentiates with the gap between the rich and the poor, for the extremely lost voters, choosing a politician that suits their own interests is of great importance.
Under this premise, extreme politicians have a place of courage!
This is the life cycle of elected politicians:
When the economy is in a prosperous period, they are the embellishment of peace and prosperity, the kind that is dispensable;
When the economy is in a recession, they are the helmsman of anger and tear, the kind that is full of words.
The key is the change in the scale of middle voters:
Intermediate voters are like a snowball in the economic boom period, and as consensus strengthens, it will become larger and larger;
Intermediate elections are like oil in the economic recession period, and as consensus breaks apart, it will shrink more and more.
For Western civilization, middle voters are a scarce resource to some extent. The shrinking and divisive this group will inevitably lead to extremes and radicalization of elected politicians.
In turn, elected politicians will take the initiative to create larger, more recent extreme policies to further tear middle voters apart once they find that extreme and radical policies are helpful to expand hardcore voters.
For example, the United States' Republican and the Democratic Party, before 2000, the policy differences between them were really not big. It was nothing more conservative than the Republican Party and the Democratic Party were more open;
But after 2010, the differences between the two parties gradually expanded and even opposed, and now it has shown an irreconcilable trend. What is the reason for
?
Because the hardcore Republican voters are basically concentrated in white voters in the economic rust belt, they demand to change the status quo and return to the past;
And the hardcore Democratic voters are basically concentrated in minorities and voters in economic prosperity areas, they hope to maintain the status quo and expand interests.
When the contradictions are slowly irreconcilable, the entire society will be divided into more than two groups with extremely opposed positions, and the national destiny will usher in a big test.
Before the American Civil War, the north and the south had severely divided their consensus due to different economic models.
In the end, the northern army won. The northern position completely overwhelmed the southern position of , and the entire country once again formed a new consensus.
The new consensus has nurtured a new large-scale middle-class voter, so the entire Western civilization has begun a new cycle again!
The above are all theoretical parts. Now let’s ask a specific question:
If you are a foreigner, if you want to immigrate to European and American countries, what stage is suitable for immigration?
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