1971 The scam of the US dollar-gold linkage could not continue, resulting in the Bretton Woods system being destroyed. At that time, the price of Arab light crude oil was US$2.24 per barrel. By 1972, the price had only risen to $2.48 per barrel, but the black market price had reached $4.
USD is decoupled from gold, and gold prices have risen sharply, and crude oil prices have only risen so little. The main reason is that the crude oil price or demand countries have decided at that time, that is, Occupy's "Seven Sisters". Later, these seven companies developed into the current ExxonMobil, BP , Chevron and Shell.
price is not decided by the oil-producing countries, but by the demanding countries. This is mainly because in the early days, oil production exceeded demand, so oil-producing countries were slapping around Europe and the United States.
However, the continuous infringement of US dollar has caused oil-producing countries to feel at a loss. Originally, 15 barrels of crude oil could be exchanged for one ounce of gold. After the gold was decoupled from the United States, the 30 barrels of crude oil were exchanged for less than one ounce of crude oil, so the oil-producing countries naturally felt at a loss.
So OPEC decided to quit and negotiate with the Westerners and can't continue playing like this.
11973, the negotiations between the two sides were held in Vienna . Before the negotiations, Western negotiators received clear instructions from European and American countries: oil prices should not soar, otherwise inflation would not be controlled.
But oil prices are no longer a question of whether they rise or not, but a question of how much they rise. Especially at that time, the fourth Middle East War of was already on the string and broke out at any time. At this time, the black market price reached around $5.
Japanese Prime Minister said on TV that oil prices may rise sharply in ten years. This is quite funny because it rose sharply more than ten days after he delivered his speech, not ten years.
With the beginning of the war, oil negotiations will almost end in fruitlessness. The oil representatives of Western countries received an order that they could rise by 15%, and OPEC meant to send beggars this increase?
stalemate for a month. On October 12, senior executives from Western countries visited Saudi Oil Minister Yamani, telling Saudis Western countries can only accept a 15% increase, and cannot be higher. This is the arrogant Westerner. He can issue currency indiscriminately, but others are not allowed to raise prices. This deadlock is obviously impossible to make a breakthrough. No one will give in. If Saudi Arabia concessions, then they are selling their resources to Europe and the United States at a low price, and exchange them for a bunch of banknotes with rapid depreciation of purchasing power.
Representative Pierce of the Western country left Intercontinental Hotel and asked Yamani what would happen later. The Saudis said four words to them: "Listen to the radio."
htmlOn October 16th, the fourth day after Westerners visited Yamani, OPEC unilaterally announced that it would raise oil prices by 70%.
The next day, OPEC decided to cut production by 5% per month to punish Western countries for supporting Israel.
So something conceivable happened: the national crude oil price rose sharply, and it had soared to $11.58 per barrel soon.
OPEC won, and the oil price later never reached single digits except for the extreme situation at that time of the epidemic.
Originally, oil prices should have reached more than $50 as early as the 1980s and 1990s, but in the late 1970s, Saudi Arabia Khalid King led the United States, resulting in oil prices being at a low level below $25 for many years.
The pro-American king of Saudi kings led to dissatisfaction among domestic religious forces, and the later bin Laden was the result of this accumulation of dissatisfaction.
The current crown prince Salman is anti-American, with both China and Russia's support internationally and people's response at home, so he has no reason to satisfy any demands of the United States. Not to mention humiliating Biden , what can he do if he publicly scolds him?
Last night, OPEC once again heard the radio: OPEC decided to cut production by 2 million barrels in November. Brent Oil prices soared to $94.
Biden released 50 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves last year, but the oil price did not drop, so he made a big move in March this year, announcing the release of 180 million barrels. The oil price did not drop at the beginning, but later, with the decline in China's crude oil demand, the oil price fell.
Last month, Biden wanted to supplement strategic crude oil reserves when the oil price was below $80. After all, there is only so much crude oil reserves, and it cannot be put into use all the time. He also needs to add some inventory at low prices.
However, after OPEC's resolution came out yesterday, Biden changed his words and said that he would continue to release 10 million oil.
Biden wants to use this method to fight OPEC, and there is an idiom that suits him very well: the mantis arm is in a chariot.
When will the United States’ crude oil reserves be released? There are a lot of dollars and euros that cannot be spent, so we can continue to reduce production.
uses limited crude oil reserves to fight OPEC's unlimited production cut time. Whoever wins and loses is actually clear at a glance.
What's more, the debt storm in Europe and the United States has begun, and they are forcing them to let go again.
Under the dual effects of production cuts and monetary easing, is it a crazy prediction for crude oil to reach US$200?
I can only say one thing: "When the time comes, listen to the radio."
END
Previous articles
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