Qizhi Wealth
Looking at the world, major global stock indexes have fallen more than they have risen this year. SENSEX in Mumbai, India, ranked first with a 5.09% increase , and the UK's FTSE 100 also rose a cumulative 1.74%. Russia's RTS performed last, with a cumulative decline of 41.29% during the year; Nasdaq was second only to Russia's RTS, with a cumulative decline of 33.03% during the year.............
Overview of the market built an obvious quadruple bottom structure
A-share Xiaoyang ended, and the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated strongly during the session and hit 3100 points again; the Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai 50 Index also rose, and the GEM index fell back and turned green in late trading; the turnover of the two cities shrank again, with about 600 billion yuan in transactions throughout the day, and a small net inflow of northbound funds.
Judging from the annual line, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 15.12%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index fell 25.85%, and the GEM Index fell 29.37%. A-shares officially come to an end in 2022! Following three consecutive positive K-lines from 2019 to 2021, the three major A-share indexes fell collectively this year, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index falling 15.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 25.85%, and the ChiNext Index falling 29.37%. Although
did not close the big positive line that investors expected, it finally closed the report in the red on the last trading day, the same as in previous years. From the technical point of view of and , three doji stars have been received in a row, indicating that a change is imminent. In particular, the GEM and the Shenzhen Component Index have built an obvious four-fold bottom structure. There are obvious signs of rising bottoms, and we can look forward to it in the coming year. Just as this column expected,
fluctuated around the 60-day moving average in the last three trading days of the year, preparing for a post-holiday surge. For investors, after one year, the proportion of people who have not lost money is probably small, and it is estimated that the proportion does not exceed 20%, including institutional investors .
But what I want to say in this column is that 2022 is about to pass. This year, geopolitical crises are everywhere, black swan events are emerging one after another, energy crises and inflation are raging around the world, the Federal Reserve has set off a interest rate hike wave, and the international financial market is turbulent...
Under the superposition of multiple crises, the global economic recession risk has increased, and "turbulence" has become the theme of the global economy in 2022. Many netizens jokingly call this a very "2" year. It seems that the joys and sorrows of your life are performed in this year, and time and space seem to be compressed in one year.
A shares bottomed out twice. The ups and downs of investors were also vividly exaggerated this year. They cried with sorrow when they fell and cried with joy when they rose. No matter what kind of tears they experienced, they never gave up on the stock market. The perseverance of investors has continuously accumulated energy for the stock market.
01The most turbulent The once "infinitely prosperous" virtual currency"One place chicken feathers"
Looking around the world, major global stock indexes fell more this year than rose. SENSEX in Mumbai, India ranked first with an increase of 5.09%, and the British FTSE 100 also rose by 1.74%. Russia's RTS performed last, with a cumulative decline of 41.29% during the year; Nasdaq was second only to Russia's RTS, with a cumulative decline of 33.03% during the year.
Against the backdrop of rising global interest rates , bond yields have risen sharply. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to a maximum of 4.3% from 1.5% at the beginning of the year, and the British 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to a maximum of 4.6% from 1% at the beginning of the year. Even in Japan, which has long-term zero interest rates, its 10-year government bond yields frequently hit the upper limit of the yield curve control YCC policy.
In 2022, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by more than 30%, and the S&P 500 Index fell by nearly 20%. As interest rates continue to climb, growth technology stocks that are sensitive to interest rates have suffered sharp declines. Meta and Tesla have fallen by more than 60% this year, Amazon has fallen by nearly 50%, and a tsunami of layoffs in the North American technology industry is coming.
Behind the double kill of stocks and bonds, the strong US dollar always has a "smiling face". The U.S. dollar index html hit its highest level of 114 in 4 years, with a maximum increase of 21%.Under the pressure of the strong U.S. dollar, in July, the exchange rate of the euro against the U.S. dollar fell below the 1:1 parity mark for the first time in 20 years; the Japanese yen became the worst-performing currency in the G10, and the Bank of Japan had to intervene multiple times in the foreign exchange market ;
The oldest currency pair is the pound sterling. The U.S. dollar also hit a record low in 2022, and was once only more than 300 basis points away from falling below the parity mark; the exchange rate of the currencies of emerging market countries against the U.S. dollar also fell quite tragically...
The once "infinitely prosperous" virtual currency is "a chicken feather in one place." In May, UST, the world's third largest stablecoin, encountered a wave of selling, and the virtual currency LUNA, which had a market value of US$41 billion, continued to plummet; in November, FTX applied for bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Federal Court, ushering in the "Lehman Moment" in the currency circle.
02 the most active Northbound net purchases of top 30 stocks
A-shares in 2022 have officially come to an end. This year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds into A-shares is 90.019 billion yuan, which is 20.8% of the net inflow of 432.169 billion yuan in 2021. Since the opening of the interconnection market at the end of 2014, northbound funds have been net flowing into A-shares for nine consecutive years, with the cumulative net inflow reaching 1.72 trillion yuan.
From the perspective of individual stocks, it is estimated based on the change in stock holdings in the range multiplied by the average transaction price of the stocks in the range. As of the close of December 29 (the same below), Longi Green Energy has purchased the largest number of stocks for northbound funds in 2022, which is 22.8 billion yuan.
Midea Group followed closely behind, with a net purchase of northbound funds of 12.2 billion yuan during the year. Guodian NARI was also net purchased by northbound funds for over 11.6 billion yuan. Overall, in 2022, 450 stocks were net bought by northbound funds for more than 100 million yuan, 171 stocks were net bought for more than 500 million yuan, and 85 stocks were bought for more than 1 billion yuan.
03 the most volatile Chinese concept stocks experienced unprecedented violent fluctuations
In 2022, Chinese concept stocks experienced unprecedented violent fluctuations. The largest single-day increase and decrease in history and the largest single-month increase and decrease in history were both set. The ups and downs of the market made investors' hearts beat faster several times. After the shocking drop of
, the strength of the rebound was also unexpected. With the Federal Reserve tightening expectations peaking and domestic epidemic prevention and control continuing to improve and other factors, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has experienced an astonishing cumulative increase of 42% throughout November 2022, setting the best single-month performance in history.
Thanks to this rebound, as of the close of trading on December 28, 2022, the cumulative decline of the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index during the year narrowed to 26%, while the previous largest decline during the year once reached 54%.
From the perspective of individual stocks, the price per share of Alibaba, one of the leading Chinese concept stocks, once hit a historical low of US$58.01 in October 2022. Compared with the historical high in 2020, it has dropped by an astonishing more than 80%, and its market value has evaporated by US$600 billion.
However, since hitting a historical low in October, Alibaba has now rebounded by more than 50%. As of December 28, it closed at US$87.2 per share, with a market value of approximately US$230.8 billion
04 The most profitable ranks fourth in the world in terms of financing, 2023: overall performance will be better
In 2022, many uncertain factors in global politics and economy have caused sharp fluctuations in the global stock market. Hong Kong stock is no exception. In the past two years, the Hang Seng Index has been falling, falling to 14597.31 points on October 31, 2022, a new low since the subprime mortgage crisis, and a drop of nearly 10,000 points from the opening price at the beginning of the year.
Subsequently, with the stimulation of various policies such as the relaxation of epidemic control and real estate liquidity support since November 2022, Hong Kong stocks started a major rebound to restore bottom valuations.
Looking forward to 2023, Zhu Jiang, director and head of the cross-border investment banking business of Essence International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., believes that the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates or even cut interest rates after the second half of 2023. The recovery of overseas liquidity by then is also expected to promote further increases in the valuation of Hong Kong stocks.
At the same time, judging from the recent guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference , China will enter a new expansion cycle.The stock market, economy, RMB exchange rate all have a high probability of strengthening in 2023. Hong Kong stocks are expected to deliver satisfactory results in 2023 under this background.
05The 2 (loved) A-share market ’s feedback to the real economy
Looking back on this year, in the face of complex and severe domestic and international environments, the A-share market promoted the improvement of diversified financing support mechanisms, increased financial support for the real economy, and contributed to the V-shaped recovery of the Chinese economy.
This year, the scale of A-share IPO financing reached a record high, and the number of existing listed companies exceeded 5,000. The Science and Technology Innovation Board and GEM, which implemented the registration system , became the main force in IPO financing during the year. Chinese companies went to Europe to issue GDRs to break the ice. The IPO market remained active this year, with the number of IPO issuers and the scale of financing remaining at a high level. Judging from the number of
listings, the three economically developed provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have become the biggest winners. At the same time, compared with previous years, the market pattern of new stocks is also undergoing new changes. According to
Wind data, if calculated based on the listing date, there will be more than 400 newly listed companies on the A-share market in 2022, reaching 428. The number of listings is less than the more than 500 companies in 2021.
In 2022, the above-mentioned new stock companies will raise a total of approximately 587 billion yuan, and the annual fundraising amount will reach a record high. Divided according to the listed boards, among the above-mentioned newly listed companies, the GEM has the most companies, reaching 150, followed by the Science and Technology Innovation Board with 124 companies. There are 83 newly listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange (i.e. North Exchange ) and 71 newly listed companies on the main board.
According to Wind statistics, the number of newly listed A-share companies in 2022 is based on the provincial administrative regions to which they belong. The three economically developed provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have become the biggest winners. Among them, Guangdong Province has 78 new A-share listed companies in 2022, which is the largest number.
Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province newly listed 70 and 55 A-share listed companies respectively. Beijing and Shanghai added 43 and 36 new A-share listed companies respectively, and they also gained a lot.
Then, 2023 is the time when the stock market rewards investors. From 2022, it will be born towards the sun, and heading towards 2023 will be the year of recovery, the year of rebirth, full of vitality and endless life. Qizhi Wealth would like to wish all investors a happy New Year's Day in 2023.
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