Aimeike is the valuation anchor of the entire medical beauty sector
1. The core investment strategy of the medical beauty sector in 2023 :
Firmly bullish, two waves of market:
1. Post-epidemic recovery market: now to February and March next year;
2. New opportunities and new market highs: from May next year to the second half of next year.
is bullish across the board: The medical beauty market probably peaked at the end of June last year. After about a year and a half of in-depth adjustments, the stock price of and is higher than last year. The average has corrected by about 40%, almost halving. It is expected to rebound across the board next year and even reach a new high.
stock price: Looking at the entire medical aesthetics industry in 2022, the maximum stock price has probably corrected by 30% to 35%. If calculated from a high point, many medical aesthetics companies have experienced stock price cuts, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic: performance reduction + valuation decline.
Now is the best time to deploy: On the one hand, this round of epidemic is very obvious, that is, it spreads quickly, peaks quickly, and recovers quickly. We estimate that many consumption data will see a significant rebound by the end of January; on the other hand, medical beauty itself has the characteristics of strong consumption stickiness and high repurchase rate, and the recovery speed after the epidemic is usually very fast.
The overlap time difference is because 2022 is the Chinese New Year in February. The base number in January is high and the base number in February is low. Therefore, the growth rate is expected to be slow in January 2023. The growth rate will pick up in February 2023. Because of the low base number and high growth, it is expected that the medical beauty data will fully rebound in February. In February or early March, after everyone sees that the February data is realized, it is expected to greatly enhance the confidence and valuation of the sector.
core: Looking for companies with second growth pipelines, optimistic about the four major tracks: regenerative products, water-light needles, collagen and weight loss. Companies with layouts in the four major tracks are expected to reach new highs.
Two steps for the medical aesthetics market:
The first step is to repair the market . From now to February and March next year, the rebound of the sectors damaged by the epidemic will correspond to about 20% of the current space (increased performance certainty + recovery after the epidemic: the valuation will increase from 1 .1~1.2 has been repaired to about 1.5 times (PEG);
the second step is . After May Day next year, the post-epidemic peak will pass, and there will be demand for medical beauty in travel. The valuation system will increase from 1.5 times to 2 times. Companies that seize new opportunities can hit new highs .
performance: Calculated by , the performance of the entire medical beauty leader has been reduced by about 15%. For example, at the beginning of the year, everyone expected Amic's net profit this year to be more than 1.5 billion. The current market expectation is that this year's net profit may be just over 1.3 billion, which has been reduced by about 15%.
Bloomage Biotech originally expected the medical beauty business to grow by more than 10% year-on-year. In fact, in the first three quarters, there was a slight decline. Huadong Medicine is expected to reach 600 million to 700 million this year. We expect to successfully complete the performance target. Without the impact of the epidemic, East China could have slightly exceeded expectations. Conclusion 1 of the three companies
: medical aesthetics performance is very resilient. After the epidemic is relaxed (rebound), everyone will do medical aesthetics as long as they socialize, so medical aesthetics may not experience particularly bad performance lows. For example, when the epidemic in Shanghai was severe in the second quarter of this year, Amic dropped by single digits in April, and the growth rate in May recovered to about 10% year-on-year. As soon as Shanghai was unblocked on June 1, Amic recovered strongly to a monthly growth of more than 50%.
Conclusion 2: Although the performance of is only affected by 15%, the stock price has corrected by 30% this year. The core reason behind it is the downward valuation system, which is due to growth reasons: the epidemic has caused a slight slowdown in the growth rate of some old star products, and at the same time disturbed the pace of volume expansion of some new products. We have observed that many consumers are cautious about trying new products during the epidemic. We often say that medical beauty is an addictive repurchase business. During the epidemic, people will continue to repurchase some medical beauty products, and their willingness to try new products is declining. On the one hand, the promotion is not smooth, and on the other hand, consumers' willingness to try new products has declined, so the promotion of new products has been mediocre, and the growth of the entire company will be subject to the valuation system and will decline.
2. Amic’s market value review:
1. Initial listing:
Amic’s was listed on September 28, 2020. The market expected a net profit of about 400 million yuan for the year. Given a PE valuation of 100 times, the market value on the first day of listing was 40.8 billion. The listing time is approaching the end of the year, and the market expects that net profit in 2021 will increase by by 585% year-on-year. Therefore, after listing, Aimike relied on the rapid growth of (net profit) and excellent fundamentals. From September to early December, the market value increased from 40 billion to 75 billion. Among them, 40 billion market value corresponds to 100 times in 20 years, and 75 billion market value corresponds to 100 times in 21 years.
html From December 29, 2021 to the end of January of the following year (around the Spring Festival), the market rose by 7% in a month. As a new stock, Aimeike had a certain over-rising market, with a market value of 75 billion yuan to about 100 billion yuan. Aimeike probably disclosed its annual report results on the evening of February 8, 2021. The profit of 440 million exceeded expectations by 10%. On February 9, it directly hit the daily limit of and +12% on the 10th, climbing to a market value of 146 billion yuan. html Around February of the 2021 Spring Festival, the entire medical aesthetic market actually began to trend towards sectoral trends. It was more due to the higher-than-expected performance of and the surge in emotional catalysts brought about by new stocks. The performance of Huaxi, Haohai Biotech, and Huadong Medicine once exceeded expectations.2. Callback: After February 18, 2021, both the market and the medical beauty sector entered a correction stage. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 10% in more than a month, and the medical beauty sector fell even more. Amic's market value fell by 46% in a month, and the market value hit the bottom on March 25, 2021: 80 billion yuan (corresponding to 800 million profits in 21, 100 times valuation).
Reason one: rose too fast before, and the valuation system was unstable;
Reason two: In March 2022, , the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued e-cigarette management measures, which made everyone worry about the high profitability and chaos of this high-profile track (which will be regulated).
3. Take off: From March 25, 2021 to July 1, 2021, Amic’s market value climbed from 80 billion to 177.4 billion yuan. Catalyst 1: performance expectations continue to increase. As HiTi Panda Zhen and HiTi continue to deliver better than expected, Amic's net profit forecast has been raised from 7.5 to 800 million, and to 850 million from April to June.
Catalyst 2: The valuation of changed three times: 2 times peg-3 times peg
1. After the first quarter report exceeded expectations and the performance in April exceeded expectations, the market became more confident in the company's long-term growth, and the valuation increased from 100 times to 130 times;
2. From April to June, offline feedback continued to improve, the market acceptance of high-body panda needles became higher and higher, and performance certainty increased. Amic’s valuation was given to more than 150 or even 160 times;
3. In the context of future performance exceeding expectations and continuous positive results, everyone is becoming more and more confident in the growth of Amic. The market uses the PEG combined with discount method to model. The market directly sees 2025, and it is generally expected that by 2025 The annual net profit of Amic is 4 billion yuan, and it will maintain a growth of more than 30% thereafter (the industry has a growth rate of more than 20~25%). By 2025, Amic will have a profit of 4 billion, a valuation of 60 times, and a market value of 240 billion. The market will use a discount rate. A discount rate of 8% corresponds to a market value of more than 177 billion yuan in 2021. In the end, the highest market value of Amic was fixed at 177.4 billion yuan.
catalytic three: (event catalysis):
1. On May 14, 2021, Amic announced plans to list Hong Kong stock market . Market interpretation: Amic can use to raise funds to acquire high-quality medical and aesthetic assets, opening up the market value ceiling;
2. On June 25, 2021, Amic announced the acquisition of South Korea's botulinum toxin human style 25.4% of equity ;
3. On June 28, 2021, Aimeike's children's facial needle was approved as the second children's facial needle in my country.
take-off review:
1. Medical beauty is an emerging track and a cross-border composite track (the upstream is medicine, and terminals are new consumption). Consumer researchers and medical researchers are paying attention to it, and it is more likely to be judged as a high barrier to and a high valuation of ;
2. The compound growth rate in the past three years has been extremely high (between 25% and 30%), and the penetration rate of and is low in single digits (3.6%, less than 1/3 of Japan and less than 1/5 of South Korea). The market has judged that the long-term prosperity will continue, and it cannot be falsified in the short term. The market is not worried about the future growth of the industry. It is small but beautiful; for example, hyaluronic acid, a small market of 4 to 5 billion, has a lot of space.
3. The track has a short rise, a lot of chaos, rapid technological innovation, lack of official and unanimously recognized data support, difficulty in tracking, and insufficient research. Therefore, during the research process, new cognitions can often bring catalysis to the stock price; for example, Amic has been doing this for a long time, and investors will pay attention to the product when it is launched.
4. The new stock is pure enough and the fundamentals are strong enough to arouse research interest.
4. Callback:
At the end of August 2021, Amic's market value quickly fell back from more than 170 billion to 110-120 billion, and began a period of shock that lasted for more than a quarter. The market generally believed that it was due to policy: On June 10, 2021, eight ministries and commissions jointly issued a special rectification campaign to crack down on illegal medical beauty. From June to July, many medical beauty mergers and acquisitions received regulatory approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission. However, since peaking at the end of June until around July 20, Amic's stock price has been trading sideways at a high level until the implementation of the dual education inspection policy triggered everyone's concerns about supervision, and 1,700 fell back to 130 billion; in August, the Advertising Law introduced relevant policies, and Amic's market value fell back to around 110 billion, entering a period of sideways shock.
There is no need to worry about the policy: 1. Everyone has generally recognized that the policy is to crack down on illegal activities and benefit compliant enterprises; 2. Medical beauty also rose a little sharply at that time, and it needs shock adjustment.
shock: is affected by multiple factors, both positive and negative. Good news: Amic’s third quarter report in October continued to exceed expectations; bad news: On the first anniversary of its listing on September 28, 2021, the original shareholders’ restricted shares and the first strategic placement shares were lifted and reduced. 110-120 billion shock.
After the Spring Festival in 22, Amic's market value was 100 billion. The market value fluctuated: changes in market style.
The core reason why Amic's market value fell to 90 billion this year and people are afraid to buy it: What is the new product with the next performance growth point? There is no growth point, and the performance growth rate will decline, 50-30-10%+. The decline in performance growth will suppress the valuation.
is optimistic about Amic’s two major products next year: children’s facial needles and water-light needle products. The reason why
is optimistic about Tongyanzhen (Moisturizing Angel): 1. It will be launched in August 2021. 22nd will be its first full incubation year, and it will slowly pass the wait-and-see stage; 2. After the epidemic, academic exchange meetings will be relaxed, expert promotion, offline training, etc. can be carried out smoothly. Beijing companies will be particularly unfavorable in 2021. If Rubai Angel doubles from 300 million this year to more than 600 million next year, accounting for 1/5 of Amic's overall revenue (we estimate 3 billion next year), it can be considered the second growth pipeline.
water light needle: has always been an important part of the medical beauty industry, but it has been a hard hit area for non-compliant products in the past; from the perspective of drainage for medical beauty hospitals after the epidemic, it is compliant and cheap, suitable for drainage, and covers a wide range of people. It is suitable for special packages for drainage promotion of medical beauty hospitals after the epidemic. We are optimistic about Aimeike's good performance in the field of water light.
3. Why does medical beauty need a PEG valuation system?
1. Medical beauty is the same as consumption. The life cycle of and is very long, and the essence has not undergone any major technological changes. Everyone has repurchased and relied on it. It was a leading company back then, and it is still a leading company now;
2. Brand power: Does medical beauty to have brand power? It also has to-C attributes for doctors; it also generates brand power for end customers.
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