On the rebar futures price html January K-line chart, you can see that the lowest price in October this year was 3,390 yuan, which was the end of the 18-month decline in steel prices along the blue channel with a 5-wave structure. It may be an intermediate turning point, unless the blue channel falls in 7 or 9 waves.
The monthly K-line chart of rebar futures price
looks at the rebound since 3390 yuan on the 60-minute K-line chart . It has been unfolding along the red rising channel and has just peaked at 4149 yuan recently, and then started to adjust. The early analysis was to treat 3390~4149 as a whole for the golden section, but that golden line group does not seem to have much to do with the K-line since 4149 yuan.
Now, carefully study the wave structure on the hourly K-line chart and daily K-line chart, and judge that 3390~4149 is a three-wave rise. The end point of the second wave is marked at 3659 yuan in the chart, falling on the lower track of the red channel. The blue gold line line group in the picture divides the 3659~4149 yuan, which is the increase of the third wave.
Rebar futures price hourly K-line chart
Now look at the price K-lines since 4149 yuan. The four characteristic values of many K-lines are on each golden line. This shows that this set of golden lines is correct, and implies that the adjustment since 4149 yuan is the fourth wave adjustment, and there is a high probability that it will reach a new high and rise in the fifth wave.
However, the fourth wave of adjustments should not be over yet. Its first wave, 4A, just bottomed out at the 50% golden line @ 3903 yuan, with an error of -4 yuan; wave 4B is probably still in progress, and its third sub-wave currently has only one small positive line, which seems incompatible with the name of the third wave , which is the main rising wave . If the adjustment since 4149 yuan is carried out along the green channel in the figure, the 4B wave will eventually rebound to the green upper track position, which will make the wave pattern perfect.
However, wave 4B is followed by wave 4C. If it falls to the 61.8% golden line @3846 yuan, a beautiful wave will be formed. The BBs above
are all blind guesses. Looking at the latest time-sharing chart, the price seems to have just fallen below the lower rail support of the red rebound channel. This signal is completely opposite to the result of blind guessing based on the hourly K-line wave structure.
Rebar futures price time-sharing chart
Forget it, just wait and see if you don’t understand it for the time being. The 4B wave is no longer and it is acceptable to go long , because once you go long and mistakenly enter the 4C wave, you may not be able to stop the loss of if you are long . The 4C wave is the third wave of decline, which will be more shocking. It is better to wait until the end of wave 4B is confirmed, and sell short after wave 4C is confirmed to have started. Then there will be more room.
In short, analysis and prediction can be wild and wild, and operations must be carried out based on the signals of various trend lines that have been seen.
#wave theory# #price trend analysis# #Golden Section# #rebar futures#
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