Recently, the positive news of real estate can be said to be constantly coming. This time, we once again mentioned that real estate is a pillar industry for economic development!
This is the status of the real estate pillar industry after 14 years. You should know that the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, and in 2009, we did not regard real estate as our pillar industry. Although we have used the real estate as a killer many times since then, we have not re-used real estate as our pillar industry, the intensity this time is not small.
When an industry accounts for more than 5% of GDP, it is actually a pillar industry. This year, our real estate has experienced the biggest cold winter in 20 years. However, according to the current decline in sales, it should be around 30%, and the total volume is still around 12 trillion yuan, accounting for about 10% of GDP. So whether it is admitted or not, real estate is still a pillar industry.
At present, real estate rescues the market . Except for first-tier cities, basically all purchase restrictions have been lifted, and many cities have even begun to stimulate. The most powerful thing is the "three arrows" of real estate financing policies starting in September. Real estate's bond financing , bank loans and equity financing have all recovered.
China Bond provides full guarantee for many developers issued bonds . According to my incomplete statistics, the credit limit of major banks to listed developers has exceeded 3 trillion. In less than a month, 25 listed developers have announced the issuance of additional financing , and 20 developers have obtained financing plans approved!
Of course, various meetings have also emphasized that it is the saving of high-quality real estate companies. Something like a big guy must be out of the blue.
But what is high-quality seems to be a clear standard at the moment. If you look at the three red lines, developers who do not cross the line should be of high quality. But I think Greenland, a company that has struck all three lines and has already lost debts, has also regained the loan and announced plans for a private placement. It seems that local state-owned enterprise developers should also be opened up.
Many intermediaries are already asking everyone to buy at the bottom. At present, the only thing that can be confirmed is that the real estate financing base has arrived.
The real estate investment and real estate sales announced in November not only fell by year-on-year compared with , but the decline also expanded, which shows that these two bottoms are far from here.
So, I still keep my previous judgment. Various measures are just the decline rate of hedging the real estate. Looking at these policies and then looking at the growth rate of currency, M2 reached 12.4%, setting a six-and-a-half-year high. If this were in any year before 2018, it would definitely be the pace of double housing prices, but now, there has not even been a bottom.
Of course, we have also made it clear that there may be some new real estate policies in the future, and the market is looking forward to this. But don’t worry, just pay attention to investment and sales data. In the future, even if these two bottom out and rebound, I think it is a medium rebound in the decline cycle, and real estate sales will never return to the scale of 18 trillion yuan per year.
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