The current box of the December index fluctuates trend, almost completely replicating the trend in November. The only difference is that the position is different, and the center of gravity has moved upward. This also verifies the prediction of the index fluctuation and upward more than a month ago. Today, we will talk about the current market and the future.
22 stock investors' lives are really hard. They have been beaten up by the stock market and have been destroyed. The market panic of bottoming out at the end of April and October is especially in front of us. Although the valuation drawdown of the entire market is similar to 2018, various negative news that have not been seen in the past ten years, and the market panic is far more than before. Every time they bottom out, how many people hand over bloody chips. Although I reminded me of the opportunity to look long every time I bottom out, no one believed it at that time. At the bottom of the market, most people are often controlled by panic and unaware of it, and are surrounded by various negative news. You must know that all the bottoms are smashed and tested, and the well-known negative news is no longer negative news. At the current position of neither up nor down, it seems that it has reached a crossroads again. This is a very delicate stage. Most people are still in a state of shock in the beating of the bear market, but the country's policies and measures have quietly turned. It can be further stated that the budding period of bull market is now, and the starting point of the bull market is here. The reason for this judgment is that the conditions for achieving a bull market have gradually been met.
1. After a bear market, the market valuation is at a historical low;
2. Generally, lack of confidence in the future of the market. People who pay attention to the stock market are at a historical low, and people who are in the market are not very enthusiastic;
3. The reform of the relevant securities market is coming to an end or end, and the current full registration system is implemented, which should be soon;
4. The external environment is stable; after G20, China-Russia relations eased, and the external environment tends to be stable and improving. Measures that once put extreme pressure on me were abolished one by one; after the US Department of Justice decided to completely revoke the allegations against Meng Wanzhou a few days ago, the US Public Company Accounting Supervision Committee (PCAOB) issued a report claiming that it had completed the review of the Chinese stocks listed in for the first time in history. (This article will be controversial, depending on your opinion.)
5. Expectation of the end of the epidemic; with the mild symptoms of the mutant strain in 22 years, there are signs of ending. If the trend continues to develop without a mutant strain with strong infectiousness and high mortality rate, it is likely that the epidemic will end in 23 years; and the sharp turn of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies is not only to adapt to this trend, but also to the basis for the loosening of economic policies in the future; the signal that the Shanghai Stock Exchange second bottoming out ends is the closing of the big positive line on November 1, because the market rumored that the epidemic prevention and control policies should be adjusted. The rebound from the second bottoming out of 3885 points to 3226 points is due to the expectation to fulfillment. Since then, the impact of relevant policies on the stock market has decreased marginally, but it is more about the market's own strength and national economic policies.
6. The signal of water release is very, very obvious; since the reform and opening up, the country's monetary policy has always maintained positive synchronization with the United States. In recent years, with the improvement of national strength, especially since the epidemic, we and the United States have always been making reverse adjustments. There are factors that precursors to our epidemic, which is also due to national strength. If possible, who would be willing to be repeatedly cut off by the tide cycle of the United States currency. As the US rate hike ( balance sheet reduction ) cycle comes to an end, our water release has also entered the countdown; at the same time, in the future, water release is also an inevitable option, and various mid-to-high-level meetings and relevant policies issued have shown this inevitable trend.
The Central Economic Work Conference, which ended recently, proposed to focus on expanding domestic demand and put the restoration and expansion of consumption in a priority position. It also mentioned that it is necessary to vigorously develop digital economy and improve the level of normalized supervision. Support platform companies to show their skills in leading development, creating jobs, and international competition. The market did not respond to the strategy of expanding domestic demand recently proposed by senior management on the same day, but looking back at the past 30 years, senior management has only proposed the strategy of expanding domestic demand three times, and each time it has created a bull market! The logic is very simple: expands domestic demand , and it must follow countless fiscal easing conditions and favorable policies from various industries.
1. In February 1998, senior management proposed the strategy of expanding domestic demand for the first time. Since then, the market of has risen for three consecutive months, up 17%.
2. In November 2008, senior management proposed the strategy of expanding domestic demand for the second time. The famous 4 trillion economic plan was proposed at that time, and the market has risen for 9 consecutive months, up 105%.
3. In July 2014, senior management proposed the strategy of expanding domestic demand for the third time, creating a bull market for the market in 2014-15 years.
4. On December 14, 2022, senior management proposed the strategy of expanding domestic demand for the fourth time. Will this be a small incident?
has always been a bear market without a bear market. At the beginning of the flood, the market may not have responded, but the combined efforts of many policies after they were implemented will eventually push the stock market to continue to rise.
In summary, as the above conditions gradually come into effect, the bull market will come irreversibly; the bull-bear cycle has been 7 years since the end of the 15-year bull market. The historical cycle has always been repeated with the same rhymes, not shifting by people's will. It turned out that only the east wind is lacking, but now the east wind is coming, and the long-awaited bull market is getting closer.
is approaching the end of the year, and it is another watershed moment for the market. I made a brief review of the predictions of important nodes this year, and summarized the experience and continued to work hard: the accuracy rate of predictions of key nodes since the end of April is more than 90%, especially in the panic of the market, firmly believed that 2863 points is the historical bottom of the market, which has been verified by the market; the opportunity to have a historical bottom was prompted at the end of April, and the risk of rebounding from the end of June to the beginning of July; the opportunity to have a second bottom was prompted at the end of October and early November. (Addressed with screenshots of previous key node predictions)
daily closes the big positive line, and the second bottoming is established.
July top risk warning three times
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