Recently, the track of photovoltaic is still chattering. On the one hand, the prices of the entire industrial chain are falling. According to PVinfolink data, the average price of silicon materials has fallen to 277 this week. I think another reason is that industrial silicon futures will come out next week. I remember that pig futures was launched on January 8, 2021. The trend of pork stock in pig futures is still very impactful. I made a comparison chart of live pig futures and Muyuan shares ( weekly line ) and found that the trend was highly consistent. However, live pig futures have fallen sharply in recent days, but not many pork stocks have fallen.
In 2023, the global demand for polysilicon is about 1.236 million tons, and the effective supply is about 1.47 million tons. The supply of is greater than the demand for . This round of silicon material price increases began in the second half of 2020. The main reason is that after photovoltaics achieve parity on the grid, demand has grown rapidly, while silicon material production capacity cannot keep up in the short term, which has led to a sharp increase in silicon material prices. Therefore, most of the profits of the entire photovoltaic industry chain are shifting to the most in short supply of silicon materials upstream. In 2023, the production capacity of silicon wafer will exceed 540GW, and the installation capacity will be calculated based on the 1:1.2 installation capacity ratio. CPIA predicts that the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be 330-350GW in 23 years, with the corresponding silicon wafer demand of about 396~420GW. silicon wafers are likely to be a slight surplus in 2023 .
Photovoltaic investment main line under the price reduction of silicon material
main line 1, battery technology, battery technology in 2022 mainly includes two routes: PERC and N type. Currently, PERC profits are still good, but N type batteries have more room for improvement. battery cell is the tightest link in the photovoltaic industry chain at present, and is expected to intercept some of the upstream price-cut profits .
main line 2, imported quartz sand supply and demand are tight. At present, the domestic demand for inner quartz sand in quartz crucible basically depends on imports, and there are few factories in the world that can mass supply quartz sand in inner quartz sand in batches.
main line 3. The proportion of N-type and double-sided components increases in 2023. N-type components are currently mainly packaged using pure POE films. It is expected that the proportion of N-type components shipments will increase to 26% in 23 years, which will effectively drive the demand for POE film and achieve the upgrading of product structure. It is expected that the demand for EVA/POE particles in 2023 will reach 1.627/339,000 tons respectively.
main line 4. In the case of IGBTh shortage and the demand for distributed installations is strong, micro reverse penetration rate is expected to increase.
My personal understanding is that industrial chain focuses on one buying rise or fall . It is easy to understand. When the price increases, everyone is scrambling to buy because tomorrow may be another price. When it falls, everyone thinks that the price will be lower tomorrow, so the more the price falls, the stronger the wait-and-see sentiment may be. So, wait for industrial silicon futures to come out and see what the trend is, and then stare at the downstream power stations. Only these large power stations, , stock price, , began to rise sharply, and I feel that it's almost done.
index analysis
Dow Jones is in a standard expansion triangle. In the early stage, it strictly abides by the rules that when it encounters the upper track, it will fall and when it encounters the lower track. In November, a large positive line broke through the upper track. Then in the past few days, the problem has fallen again due to the expected rate hike of and just fell to the upper track. This is the breakthrough → retracement mode I mentioned to you before. The same is true for our Shanghai Composite Index , and it is currently a position that breaks through the upper track.
daily line , which is already in the three-line dead cross resonance suppression of
60 minutes. It is a very standard upward channel. In the previous few times, it fell when it hits the upper track and rises when it hits the lower track. After the closing on Friday, it has fallen to the lower track, which means that it cannot fall any further. Falling below the lower track means that the upward channel has failed, and failure means that the market is over.
time-sharing chart specifically explains
1. The time-sharing chart data is based on Shanghai and Shenzhen 300
2. The yellow and white line has no meaning. You can refer to the big trend
3. The time-sharing chart is for your reference only and cannot be used as any investment basis
4. The stock market has great risks. Investment requires extreme caution.
Monday's time-sharing chart is for your reference only
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